Yes, I agree it's flawed...  the only thing, the longer we go, the less flawed the comparison will be...  and, at least for now it does show the PS3 isn't really doing that bad compared to the 360.

PS3 is more likely to be discontinued before XBox 360 or stop at the same time as XBox 360. PS2 and PSX have only lasted 10 years because they have been profitable and were market leaders. So far PS3 is dead last in the console war and is making a loss, two years on. Its main competitor Wii is selling three times as many consoles as PS3 which was launched around the same time as PS3.

Trying to take back second place from XBox 360 will not be much of a prize if it results in Sony losing billions in the process and possibly Sony going bankrupt or exiting the console market.

Settling for last place and turning a profit would be the best business move Sony could make regarding PS3. PS3 was launched  by Sony to sell Blu-Ray players. So Sony won the HD format wars but it will lose the console wars this generation.

I agree with most of your points.

1. Sony is better off not loosing more money on PS3 even if it means third place instead of second, so a price cut would be unwise, unless they can cut manufacturing costs to make it profitable.  Right now the difference between 2nd and 3rd place is small compared to the difference between 1st and 2nd.

2. I think the PS3 will stay on the market longer then the 360.  There is a storage advantage of Blu Ray, which some games may take advantage of eventually, and that might make the 360 obsolete at some point in terms of HD.  Microsoft may also decide it doesn't like second place and try to release a console to close the generation gap among families and consoles, giving the PS3 a couple of years to catch up...

Long term, I put the PS3 at about 40% of ending up in 2nd place instead of third.

Take a look here at page 6.
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/08q2_sonypre.pdf
Were it not for the massive drop in Dollar/Yen rates, it's very possible the gaming division could have made a profit last quarter with the sales being up.
So far for Q3 the Dollar/Yen rate has hovered around the 90Yen/Dollar range meaning that if for the next month the rate can stabilise, Sony can expect a profit this quarter, and perhaps a profit over the first three quarters combined.
This would largely be due to the refusal to give into pressure and drop the price of the PS3 system over the holidays.
Yes, sony has lost roughly (1 million consoles x $50 loss per console) $50 million in december to date. Imagine they'd dropped the price?
At the moment, I'm sure Sony is more concerned by profitability than market share right now.
X360 started having huge success after the pricecut, and looking at that, Sony can expect a similar climb or better when it drops the price on the PS3.
There is no need for them to rush to catch the 360, that would only conceivably be a target for them when they know the time is right to make a move.