Ok, so I have been trying to get a feel at what this week will look like as far as software and hardware data will be, and to tell you the truth I can really make up my mind.

Last year the week for cmas to the week of cmas saw a drop of about 50% for both SW and HW in NA, while others saw a drop of about 40%.

BUT this year was a leap years so therefore there were 2 more full days of shopping in the week of cmas before cmas. Also, so last year we had Sunday and Monday, then we had the 26th on a wednesday, a day less people are likely to make a big shopping day than a friday.

This year We had Sun-Wed of pre holiday shopping and the days right after cmas fell on a weekend, which should help sales alot. Now, there is really no way in my mind that we will se an increase because there was 1 less day in the week (cmas), but from the reports I am hearing the 26th was extra big this year, and in places where BF does not exist it was the biggest shopping day of the year.

So this is what I think, Due to the fact the 2 out of the top 3 shopping days in the year fell in last week, and the perfect placement of CMAS as far as sales go, I think maybe sales might only be down 10-15%. But that is just a guess. Wii HW is  really impossible to guess seeing that Nintendo could have flooded the Market sun-wed and sold them all, imo the only console that might be stable or even increase is the Wii, but Wii SW will still be down 10-15%. Then, again there could be less shipments (did not seem like it to me however, as every store in my town it seemed got a major wii shipment sun-tues).

Of course I could be wrong and sales could be similiar to last year (although for reason I mention will be better no matter what) so worst case scenario, 30% drop in NA, 25% drop in other...

edit- thanks to trwoo's brilliant suggestion I went back to 2003 (same week setup)

No software for NA that far back but total HW

week ending dec 20 2003 - Total 2,186,779
week ending dec 27 2003 - Total 1,721,449

yea... that pretty much fits mine and Zucas's theory on this one. Also what I said about the Wii could close this gap even more.

ioi said drop of 50-60% in a thread called will next weeks #s be lower than this weeks or something like that
i think
Wii 1300
360 700
ps3 420

I just read that ioi thinks this week will be 50% of last week. He posted that before he got any data in (like on the 24th)

but cmas falls later in the week this year so the fall will not be the same as last year. Like I said 30% at worst, and with the Wii who knows.

anything could happen with the wii in might be even higher than last week but there might not be supply for it

IDK wat ioi was thinking saying there will b a 50-60 drop off

 Great anylysis! I think you may be right, at least I hope so. It would be nice with one more week with huge sales

I'm going to say the traditional drops for this week will be a lot less than usual. I mean for my Gamestop, the two biggest shopping days revenue wise were Christmas Eve and Boxing Day which are both in this week. Even if Saturday and Thursday were a lot less or non existent, the rest should hold up to at least stop decreases from being too bad.

So hardware might still show traditional decreases due to shortages but software is going to still be pretty beastly.

 /thread

No he said it'll be 50-60% of last week meaning a 40-50% drop.  Either way, in 2007 the net drop was about 40%.  I think this year that net drop will be 25%-30%.

 huh???

 You made all that analyzing and thread-making in vain.

Theres nuffin to speculate about since ioi said this week will be down 50%.