Yes, kinda insane. I doubt it will end next year above 40 million, altough it will be close.

CrazzyMan said: After Christmas(1-2 months) x360 will peak it sales, and Killzone 2 will just kill x360 sales.

 

can I quote you on this?

Wouldn't surprise me at all. I'll be shocked if they can hit 20m, but 16m is more than possible.

The 360 has continuously outperformed my expectations - and it may well do it again.

With more services bringing in money, and even more games on the system - MS can afford to keep dropping the price. Esp. since the 360 division is running at a profit.

Your insane..

More people agree with me than I expected!

I guess my prediction wasn't as insane as I thought.

Anyway, I consider next year to be the third year as the generation only started really when all consoles were released in late 2006 and thats only a partial year.

I think it is possible for X360 to sell 16 million, and i hope it does.

It's a very reasonable prediction........but I'll call you insane anyways, since you're Squill :)

The only reason the 360 got such a big boost at the end of this year is the economic crisis which amplified the price difference between itself and the PS3. Without that, it would have seen just another regular holiday.

Even if an uglier crisis took place next year, it wouldn't help the 360 as people would just scale back their purchases altogether, and that included video games.

The 360 isn't going to sell 16 million next year. Seriously, that's bordering on PS2 and GBA numbers. Even if MS cut the price again, it still wouldn't help as that would do nothing to change perception of the console. It's still seen as catering almost exclusively to core and hardcore gamers. The Wii has already claimed the casuals.

Xbox 360 has potential to sell a lot next year, without a doubt with MS probably lowering prices on Pro/Elite SKU's somewhere next year to combat PS3 Cut Price (if it happens). But i dont think it can sell 16 million next year, only if PS3 is marginalised even more sales wise then yes.

I think 11-12 million next year will be a success for Microsoft, since Sony with better price should be able to regain some ground and steal some sales from the 360 which will loose a bit momentum it gained after that price-cut before holidays, and it will be very hard for MS to pull those holiday numbers like this year, but then some sort of slim version of the 360 could increase the sales again.

Next year will be definately interesting in terms of hardware sales.

Well this probably was 360's peak holiday season as its doubtful it can continue to take off with not many "bullets" left in the gun per se. Though I think with leveling off throughout 2009 with the $200 pricetag compared to the short time this year in the holiday season will make sales about even. Could increase more in 2009, but I'd need to know more about what they'll do strategically in 2009. So my guesses is 10-14 million in 2009. IN other words around the same with a tolerance of 2 million.