I think they will definitely have 50% of market share by the end of 2009. The Wii always sell pretty well during the holiday season, so its very possible.

Bump because of PS3 Slim/Price cut and Elite price cut.

In the OP I said that a 100$/euro price cut for the PS3 would mean that the Wii wouldn't reach 50% market share by the end of 2009. I don't see any reason why this will be wrong.

So what do people think about the Wii hitting 50% market share now???

(some serious crow serving is needed in here xD)

hell no.

Well, two simultaneous $100 price cuts and a new model just in time for the holidays, Wii doesn't look like it will reach it this year, but Sony and MS are delaying the inevitable, and running out of room to drop the price.

With Final Fantasy 13 coming to Japan this year, I don't think so.

Never. Furthermore the Wii will lose marketshare.

...Crazzyman was right again?

I starting to question whether it will at all. Nintendo will be very reluctant to drop the price when it is selling more than the PS3 and 360 (not combined). Nintendo isn't the sort of company that would loose out on profit to gain a little market share when they are already far ahead.

Didn't you get LAST YEAR'S memo? The Wii was guaranteed to break 50% by year end 2008. Remember?!

Plenty of people were predicting that Nintendo would be selling consoles that weren't even on their estimate projections because apparently, they knew that Nintendo would continually be increasing their production yield before Nintendo themselves did.

So now the story is a much less interesting "Will the Wii hit 50% by year end 2009?" which may well be replaced with "Will the Wii hit 50% ever" depending on how the holiday 2009 season pans out.

Despite Nintendo's denials regarding any price drops, I still see a $199 Wii as a distinct possibily for the holidays. In my opinion, it is now overpriced with production yields easily meeting consumer demand at $250. They are selling nowhere near their max production rate of 2.4m/month currently. I don't see additional bundles or colors as changing the current playing field with a $299 Elite and PS3.

(For the record, I ALSO believed Nintendo would hit 50% by Q1 2009 like most, although I wasn't quibbling over tenths of percentage points or even one or two percentage points and was essentially going with the accepted notion that Nintendo had roughly half of the current generation console sales, which they do.)

LOL. Get this man un-perma-banned xD