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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Wii have 50% market share by the end of 2009?

tombi123 on 23 December 2008

By the end of 2008 the sales of the 3 consoles should look like this (rounded to the nearest .5M): 

Wii: 46.5M

360: 28M 

PS3: 19.5M 

Giving the Wii 49.5% market share. 

Assuming Nintendo produce 30M Wii for next year (they produce 2.4M a month right?), the Wii will be at roughly 76M by the end of 2009. This means for the Wii to be at 50% market share at the end of 2009, the PS3 and 360 must have combined sales of less than 28.5M next year.  

I think the 360 can sell 13.5M next year. It is at a very cheap price point and is selling extremely well at the moment. 

So can the PS3 sell 15M next year? I think with a 100$/£/Euro price cut (plus the equivalent in Japan) it can. It has two massive games in 09, Gran Turismo 5 for Europe, FFXIII for Japan, which combined with a price cut will really increase sales. 

With a smaller price cut (say 50$/£/Euro), or no price cut at all, the PS3 almost certainly won't sell 15M next year. 

So my conclusion is that the Wii will have 50% market share by the end of 2009 unless, the PS3 has a 100$/£/Euro price cut and Nintendo don't increase Wii production to more than 2.4M a month. 

Your thoughts...



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tombi123 on 23 December 2008

please tell me if I have made some stupid maths mistake



colonelstubbs on 23 December 2008

As ive said before, the wii will not hit 50%. It will reach 49.9% at which point the ps3 will be cut to $99 and sell 3 million consoles a week. Right on




(seriously, yes, the wii should easily be at 50% at that point)



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Aj_habfan on 23 December 2008

PS3 will sell horribly after Christmas. It will probably be close to the PS3's worst weeks ever.

In other words, it won't take long, and I can't see the Wii losing marketshare.



Sheershaw on 23 December 2008

End of 09? It will have 50% by March O_o.



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ramuji on 23 December 2008

The Wii will likely achieve 50% market share much earlier than the end of 2009.

The more interesting question is, will it be able to maintain 50% (or greater) market share through the end of 2009?



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tombi123 on 23 December 2008

@Aj_habfan

Yes I agree that PS3 sales will go down YoY until Sony cut the price.

@Sheershaw

I agree. But it could loose it again if the PS3 has a price cut. As your market share goes up, it gets increasingly difficult to hold onto it.



megaman79 on 23 December 2008

59% by end of 09



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

Roma on 23 December 2008

I find it funny how some (including me) had a thread like this but asked if it would reach 50% at the end of this year.
But you did one for the end of next year…
I am 100% sure it will reach 50% market share in Feb/Mars.



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(

thekitchensink on 23 December 2008

Wii will be at 55% market share by the end of '09



Could I trouble you for some maple syrup to go with the plate of roffles you just served up?

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