Will the Wii have 50% market share by the end of 2009?

[tombi123]

By the end of 2008 the sales of the 3 consoles should look like this (rounded to the nearest .5M): 

Wii: 46.5M

360: 28M 

PS3: 19.5M 

Giving the Wii 49.5% market share. 

Assuming Nintendo produce 30M Wii for next year (they produce 2.4M a month right?), the Wii will be at roughly 76M by the end of 2009. This means for the Wii to be at 50% market share at the end of 2009, the PS3 and 360 must have combined sales of less than 28.5M next year.  

I think the 360 can sell 13.5M next year. It is at a very cheap price point and is selling extremely well at the moment. 

So can the PS3 sell 15M next year? I think with a 100$/£/Euro price cut (plus the equivalent in Japan) it can. It has two massive games in 09, Gran Turismo 5 for Europe, FFXIII for Japan, which combined with a price cut will really increase sales. 

With a smaller price cut (say 50$/£/Euro), or no price cut at all, the PS3 almost certainly won't sell 15M next year. 

So my conclusion is that the Wii will have 50% market share by the end of 2009 unless, the PS3 has a 100$/£/Euro price cut and Nintendo don't increase Wii production to more than 2.4M a month. 

Your thoughts...