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Forums - Microsoft - Can the 360 hit the "Exclusivity line"?

couchmonkey on 23 December 2008

There will be certain PC-centric developers like Valve that will probably start to do more 360-exclusive products (usually with a PC port as well) but it will never reach the scale of PS2 without MS giving out cash incentives, I just don't see 360 pulling that far ahead in the race.

I think sometimes hanging out on VGChartz causes us to miss the forest for the trees: earlier this year everyone was declaring Microsoft's doom, now everyone's declaring Sony's doom. In the big picture, 360 has built a measly 1-2 million extra lead over what it had two years ago. I think it needs something like a 15-20 million lead (or lets say 60% more units sold) before most publishers will stop doing ports.



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heruamon on 23 December 2008

If the estimate for multiplatform cost to be only 10% more, than the answer is no...I don't see developers going exclsuive, without some stimilus from Sony/M$ to help cover the cost for timed exclusives.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

colonelstubbs on 23 December 2008

This is where devs like konami see no point in putting an MGS game on the ps3 only, and either make them multiplat or 360 only...i think if the 360 were to pull out enough of a lead, which it could, the ps4 especially could be in trouble with 3rd party games



I hope my 360 doesn't RRoD
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amirnetz on 23 December 2008
heruamon said:
If the estimate for multiplatform cost to be only 10% more, than the answer is no...I don't see developers going exclsuive, without some stimilus from Sony/M$ to help cover the cost for timed exclusives.

The cost is way more than 10%. Just the license for the unreal engine from Epic may cost you close to that before you even started to write the first line of code.

Then there is the specific platform optimizations, the double testing, the double media purchases, the delay to the schedule, the specialized PS3 skills.

Way more than 10%. Nothing short of 30%.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

ROBOTECHHEAVEN on 23 December 2008

yes i believe it can and will eventually.



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http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=52882&page=1

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CrazzyMan on 23 December 2008
amirnetz said:
CrazzyMan said:

...
There is more chance, that Japanese developers will support more PS3/Wii, since x360 just FAIL to have good sales in Japan.

True, but only for games that have no prospects of releasing in the west (and there are many of those, though most of us here don't care about those). For most games that get to be released in the west, no sane developer will use the PS3 as a lead platform. Valkyria Chronicles, Naruto Ultimae Ninja Storm, Yakuza Kenzan, Cross Edge, Yakuza 3, Demon`s Soul, Quantum Theory and etc.

Here is why: The 360 and PC have almost identical architectures. The Wii has a failrly traditional architecture as well - not too far from that of a low powered PC.  In contrast - the PS3 is a very strange beast that need very special skills and very different approch to software developement. That`s why, developers after seeing KZ2, Naruto:UNS, GT5, FFXIII, GoW3 will want to create something amazing as these games.

For a studio to take on the PS3 as a leading platform means that they are going to run into trouble with all of the rest of the systems. In contrast, taking the 360, PC or even Wii as the lead platform makes the code reasonably portable to the other "tranditional" platforms and you limit your risk to the platform that is less than 10% of the market (including PCs). Yet, This won`t stop Japanese developers, which mostly don`t care about PC.

Two more points:

1. Japan is not what it used to be. It is only 5% of the HW console sales WW. (20-25% of Wii/Ds HW sales are in Japan)

2. I would take Sony's statement that "developers are starting to use the PS3 as the leading platform" with a very big grain of salt and focus on the word "starting" - 1 studio doing it is a start. See games above.

:)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Fumanchu on 23 December 2008

You should link your third party thread amirnetz. I think from last count is was up to 60 games - not exclusive to the 360, but 'denied' a PS3 release.



papflesje on 23 December 2008

Personally, I think the xbox can get exclusives already, because of its lead, its current sales difference, and because it has a high attach rate it can use as proof that things will sell (along with quite a few high selling games).

The fact that Sony is bringing out exclusives that will never move over to the xbox may hurt the xbox actually. I've seen quite a lot of ps3 only titles on the horizon, with only a few xbox titles to counter that with.

But in general, based on how it's doing and how it performs sales-wise (software), it should be able to get some.



Shadowblind on 23 December 2008
Soriku said:
Shadowblind said:
scottie said:
I'm going to ignore names of consoles and summarise your question to

"Will a console that is losing market share yet can sell more 3rd party software then the PS3, and a LOT more then the Wii, see increased third party support as a result?"

My answer? no

Fix'd. Surprise surprise, market share isn't even close to everything.

OT: Well, no actually. Many(Or is it just Capcom?) companies have stated they are going to be doing most things multiplat from now on...but for my part, I REALLLLLY hope for some PS3 exclusives. I'm having buyer's remorse right now and I've only owned one for 1 week.

PLEASE make KH3, Condemned 3, BoF5(Dragons quarter sucked) and whatever Tales game is after the Wii version PS3 exclusives>_<

 

 

Uh...no. The Wii is beating the 360 SW wise in EU and Japan. Only region where the the 360 is beating the Wii SW wise is NA. Though I'm not sure how big the gap is.

OT: Doubt it. Most devs see PS3 and 360 as the better choice and I don't really expect that to change. In Japan that won't happen at all after the DQ X announcement. The West is more debateable, but like I said, most devs see the PS3 and 360 as the better choice.

 

 For 3rd party software? I want my proof. Show me the many 3rd party games Wii has sold more then 360 has in 3rd party games.



GOTY Contestants this year: Dead Space 2, Dark Souls, Tales of Graces f. Everything else can suck it.

amirnetz on 23 December 2008
Fumanchu said:
You should link your third party thread amirnetz. I think from last count is was up to 60 games - not exclusive to the 360, but 'denied' a PS3 release.

 

 Here it is:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=50914

And the current 3rd party (i.e. not published by Sony or Microsoft) exlusivity list from October 2008 to 2009 is below. Be sure to read the thread rules before starting to add more items to the list. The thread had been peer-reviewed extensively and the list is very solid.

360 3rd Party "Exclusives" (i.e. denied on the PS3):

  1. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures
  2. Age of Pirates: Captain Blood
  3. Battlestations: Pacific
  4. Blood Bowl
  5. Brave: A Warrior’s Tale Total
  6. Champions Online
  7. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3
  8. Crash Bandicoot: Mind Over Mutant
  9. Crusaders: Invasion of Constantinople
  10. Dance Dance Revolution Universe 3
  11. Darksiders: Wrath of War
  12. Dead Island
  13. Deer Hunter Tournament
  14. Demons of Mercy
  15. Destroy All Humans! Path of the Furon
  16. Divinity 2: Ego Draconis
  17. Dog Tag
  18. Dungeon Explorer
  19. Dungeon Hero
  20. Galactic Command - Excalibur
  21. Guilty Gear 2: Overture
  22. High School Musical 3: Senior Year Dance!
  23. Huxley
  24. Indianapolis 500 Evolution
  25. Left 4 Dead
  26. NARUTO: THE BROKEN BOND
  27. NecroVisioN
  28. Onechanbara: Bikini Samurai Squad
  29. Owlboy
  30. PDC World Championship Darts 2008
  31. Possession
  32. Puzzle Quest: Galactrix
  33. RACE Pro
  34. Raven Squad: Operation Hidden Dagger
  35. R-Type Dimensions
  36. Secret Service
  37. Shadow Harvest
  38. Star Ocean: The Last Hope
  39. Stoked
  40. The King of Fighters: Maximum Impact 2.5
  41. The last Remnant
  42. The Maw
  43. The Outsider
  44. The Precursors
  45. The Shadow of Aten
  46. The Tale of Despereaux
  47. Theseis
  48. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction
  49. Two days to Vegas
  50. Underwater Wars
  51. Urban Mysteries
  52. Velvet Assassin
  53. Venetica
  54. Warhound
  55. Winter Sports 2: The Next Challenge

 

PS3 3rd Party Exclusives (i.e. denied on the 360):

  1. Final Fantasy Versus XIII
  2. Heat
  3. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm
  4. Soldner-X: Himmelssturmer
  5. Valkyria Chronicles
  6. Quantum Theory
  7. Redwood Falls
  8. WarDevil: Enigma
  9. Tears To Tiara: Earth's Wreath
  10. Bumpy Trot 2


Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3