One of the developments this gen is that most devs have moved squarely in to the multiplatform market. Where the high sales of the PS2 warranted lots of exclusive development, rising costs and lower userbases (and that whole Wii thing) have really thrown developers for a loop. So we've seen dev's needing extra people doing extra work to get their games on extra consoles and hey look... Everybody is losing money!

I know that the popular view around here is that porting is a cheap and easy way to make money, but it's still something that devs wouldn't want to do if they didn't have to. So my question is, in terms of the 360's increased momentum, can the system get to a point where more devs will feel comfortable releasing a game on the 360 only? And what exactly would the requirements for that be?

Does the 360 just need to reach a certain size userbase? Or is it's viability as a single platform in direct relation to the PS3's userbase?  I kind of want to keep the Wii out of this just because A: It makes things too complicated and B: just come on, please!

Personally, I think as game developing costs come down and userbases rise, we'll start to see more exclusive games again. And I imagine the 360's where they'll go, I'm just not sure when.

Discuss.

Well yea, unless the ps3 starts gaining some market share.

Great thread.

This is where being third will cost the PS3. The 360 has already shown us they can sell software as well as the wii. 2009, if Sony doesn't get some form of momentum back, 2010 will be a great year for the 360 software wise.

I'm going to ignore names of consoles and summarise your question to

"Will a console that is losing market share, see increased third party support as a result?"

My answer? no

hmm i would say that a difference of 15million units is needed.... or if the userbase hits 55+ million ... which ever comes first

I don't see it happening.

Most of the cost of HD game development is content creation, not programming. Once you've paid all those millions for the art, level design and voice work why freeze out a market of 20 million potential buyers to save a couple million dollars of programming cost? Those falling costs you describe will include falling porting costs, especially with licensed engines that work on both platforms.

If the platforms were more distinct then there would be game design compromises involved, but I just see far more incentive to port than I see not to.

well gee if you ignore the primis anything is possible.... will developers make the best exclusive games for the largest userbase console if it has a higher chance of getting lost in the shuffle .... no

I agree 3rd party exclusives will come back but for that to happen I would think the install base would need to be about 50 million. The Wii will get support but of the 360 and PS3, well your guess is as good as mine to which will reach 50 million first (if any).

@ Scottie - I didn't say increased support. I said exclusivity. No matter how well the Wii does, there will always be games made for the HD consoles. I'm asking if it will get to a point where the devs of those games will feel comfortable or obliged to make it for just one system, and the 360 isn't losing marketshare to the PS3 right now.

@ famousringo - you're right on a lot of that, but saving those precious millions looks like it's becoming increasingly important right now. The current strategy sure as hell isn't working for most western devs. Perhaps because most games are requiring extra money, time and manpower to get them going on additional consoles? I'm sure the idea of only having to make one version of a game and having it still sell well would be pretty enticing to most devs.

@ stof - well my answer is no, neither the PS3 or 360 will get exclusives. The breakdown will probably be something along the lines of
25% Wii
40% PSwii60
10% PSwii
10% wii60
10% PS360
2% PS3
3% 360