Why will it have to double them?

Wii sold 20 mill at the end of 07, and it's looking like 45 mill at the end of 08, so an increase of 25 mill. If it doubled it's 08 sales, it'd sell 50 and we'd have 95 million by the end of 08. 80 million is only a 40% increase YOY, which isn't impossible, just pretty unlikely.

OTOH, your number of 64 million is laughable. You're saying that the Wii is going to sell at most 19 mill next year? Please. Your PS3 number isn't unreasonable, as it's sold 10 mill this year, so another 10 mill isn't unpossible, but 12 might be, especially if they can't afford a price drop in 09. 360 likewise sold about 10 mill in 08, but you're putting them as selling between 5 and 7 in 09, despite the fact that the majority of 2008 was at a higher price point, and MS may price drop in 09 to compete with sony.

I'm holding off final sales predictions until the final 2008 numbers are in, but...

We know Wii is currently selling everything it ships. Its up to about 2.5mil per month, right? So 2.5 x12 = 26 million. Figure they'll up production again in the spring, but that'll take some time. Maybe it adds another 4 mil, which would be 30mil on top of current sales, or around 75. The sad thing is this is mostly in Nintendo's hands - they could up production to 4mil per month if they wanted to, so predictions are less about sales trends than understanding Nintendo itself.

PS3 sold about 7 mil in 2007, then 10 mil in 2008, but the sales are slowing due to the economy. I expect even with a price cut that 10m is about as well as Sony can expect in 2009 - the only exclusive system seller I see from them is GT5  - I don't expect FF13 or GoW3 to make it out until 2010, and Killzone 2 isn't a console seller.

The 360 you are seriously shortchanging. You've got it selling just 7 million next year. The 360 has been selling an average of 8m its first 2 years, and their numbers have picked up with the price cut - it looks like they'll hit over 10m this year. The system sells in the US and is picking up Europe. If Halo 3 and Halo wars make it out, they could duplicate even though I don't anticipate another price cut. So that would put them... 37 million?

Therefore...

End of 2009:

Wii: sells 30m to finish at 75m.

PS3: sells 10m to finish just under 30m.

360 sells just under 10 to finish around 36m.

That is 141m consoles sold, Wii @ 53%, PS3 @ 21% and 360 26%.

Sorry but the 360 "slim" has been coming for some time. Its not speculation.

I'll post in this thread, simply so I can edit my post next year and talk about how right I was. XD j/k

Oh and leo-j's posts in that thread that he linked to are pretty funny. ha.

We've got some extremely low PS3 sales. People are predicting it will sell 8 million in 2009... frankly, I think that's ridiculous.

The only predictinon I can make with which I'm pretty certain exists a possibility to be true.

Starcraft 2 will be in the top 5 best selling games of '09.

Discounting any "Wii _____" games, Starcraft 2 will probably be #1.

My prediction is that 2009 will look like 2008, at the end of the year...some ffanboys will be saying 2010 will be the year of...

to make predictions for one year is really hard, but I will try.

hardware:

• PS3 and Xbox360 will sell almost the same (+ / - 1 million)
• Wii will dominate again, but this year, they actually have to work for it. Maybe a new Zelda would help

Software:

• Halo Wars will sell pretty well. I expect a 2 - 3 million at the end of 09
• Resident Evil will sell better on the Xbox360 than on the PS3. RE5 (Xbox360) will be 3 - 4 million at the end of 09
• Final Fantasy XIII will sell better on the Xbox360 in NA. Others and Japan (of course -.-) will belong to the PS3.
• Alan Wake will sell 3 million units. Depending on its release-date and advertising.
• Gears of War 2 will top 5 million easily at the end of 09
• Mass Effect 2 will be a console exclusive for the Xbox360
• Star Ocean TLH (if released in Others and NA) will be the first million-selling JRPG this gen (HD-consoles)
• InFamous won't sell more than 1.5 million units.

Megaton:

• MS will buy a game developing studio or a publisher. Well a pretty big one. I think they will expand with a japanese company. Or Remedy Games might join the Microsoft Game Studios.

Some people are predicting horribly low for ALL consoles. It's not something that's just for Ps3. I mean, Wii 60M and Ps3 35M (which means Ps3 will sell 15-16M next year, and Wii 14-15M) is equally horrible, if not even worse.

Note that my prediction is with a PS3 price cut. There's no point predicting without one, seeing as I have predicted that the PS3 will get a price cut in the first half of the year.

Those of you who have two different hardware predictions are cheating. That's part of the prediction, to predict price cuts!