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Forums - Sales - Will PS3 eventually pass 360?

endimion on 12 August 2007
dallas said:
I think that the PS3 has a great chance in beating the 360. Right now, the 360 is like a giant army that can't really afford to wage war, b/c of the cash being bled out by the RROD problem.

The PS3 has a lot going for it:
1. Home
2.BD factor, which will mean a lot more once BD disks are more popular, which admittedly might take another year.
3. VOD - The PS3 will make a bundle with this, much more than microsoft has done anyway b/c Sony is a movie company as well, and they won't have to pay other movie companies for the right to sell. It is going to be all gravy for them.
4. Greater numbers of exclusives moving to sony. I have noticed a trend of sony getting more exclusives lately than it has been 5-6 months ago.
5. Production costs- All else equal, a PC or similar peice of electronics that has newer, and more expensive components will have greater reductions of production costs as a % of original manufacturing price, than a similar PC that has more basic components. So, its BD diode, the Cell, will all get cheaper quicker than the 360's stuff. And yes, I do realize that the 360 was cheaper to begin with, but that doesn't matter in the long run. What matters is 2 or 3 years from now, not the first year.

6. Microsoft's problems with the 360 brand. The 360 has had 2 years of unprofitable performance. With respect to budgeting, any company would be a fool to put a more than "normal" amount of budgeted $$$ to any division that has historically performed poorly. I would expect that microsoft would be pretty pessimistic with the 360's potential by now, and that they would probably be thinking about giving them a lot less budgeted $$$ than they have been, so that less will be lost and that more could be spent on divisions or projects that just have more potential.

7. Sony's vs MS's profitability - MS earns about 6X's what Sony does, but at the same time, sony's profit has been growing faster. With the BD just now becoming profitable, Sony should expect to get some very good profits in with having a monopoly on this format. Also, the PS3's profits have been improving, and while still negative, it looks like the division responsible for the PS3's gaming will turn a profit in this coming quarter or the one after that. Growing profits means more $$$$ that Sony can budget towards the PS3 as well as other projects.

8. The PS3's upcoming DVR service. I hope that Sony won't try to go the cheap route with this and give only DVR with bad resolution so that we can put 500 hours of movies on the PS3, versus 30 hours of high-quality video that I think that most of us would rather have. Either way, this product upgrade looks very promising, and is a feature that the 360 just won't have.

--------------------

Either way, the BD, DVR service, VOD , HOME, etc are all upcoming services, which means that the PS3 really hasn't lived up to its full potential yet. Right now, the PS3 is selling more than the 360, and with the 360's upcoming price cut, they will probably be equal. Either way, sony just has more $$$ to put to use on its console, and the upcoming product improvements will help sales by a substantial amount when all are online.

ok lets get started :) 

 3. well right now on amazon you can already buy a bundle with elite+HD DVDdrive+300 HD+ 5 HD DVDfor a total of 599 (knowing that the elite alone is 449) that's already a great value deal

 4. that's great for sony but they have to make it count... and they have to keep them and for that they have to move systems to convince the publisher to keep it exclusive

6. I really think the opposite... the only way to make it work now is to invest even more dolla to establish a stable position, the share holders might not like it but the board of MS is not exactly like all other... they have more liberty to invest usually and the share holders are usually confident... you just have to see the stock cap to understand that the company is trusted by share holders... and RRoD sure it's a lot of money... but for MS it's less than for many other companies... Sony would be dead in the same situation... and you have to keep in mind that's an estimation.... they might lose less at the end...

7. 6X make it 17X and you'll be closer to the truth :) (i'm talking about annual profit/ net income) that's why MS can sustain the battle on the long run no matter what... backing up now would make more deficit than investing more....

8. well we already have that on XB we can get movies in HD or SD for a couple bucks... shows and music video etc.... it's just that most content is to rent.... but that kind of service is there already...

now I'm not saying PS3 is or will not come back, I was just comenting what you said correcting where it wasn't IMO accurate... and informing you on what you seem not aware yet....

at the end PS3 as more to do than just making BD profitable and getting exclusives... thay need to find a way to push it hard and push it fast to come back... and MS needs to do the same to keep their position and not to let WII fly away... and that can only come by investing more.... for both party  



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Lost tears of Kain on 13 August 2007
libellule said:
PS3 beating Xbox360 WW ??

I think price drop + GT5 = in July 2008 PS3 will be 2nd.

Since begining 2007 Xbox360 sales are pretty close to PS3 sales.
It means that PS3, without game and with a higer price 600$ is EGUAL to Xbox360.

Well, people will just wait for price drop, GTA4 / Killzone2 (gear of war effect) / MGS4 = GG.

How.... Many times do i have to say this, everyone is saying "just wait once we get those games out ps3 is gonna rule and overtake the xbox  in 2008 you just wait"

First off its already been proven mathamatically that  it would take a huge increase of sales in ps3 for this to happen, and thats having microsoft having no boost at all. In my mind its very hard to see, but i guess def not impossible.

Second you say GT5 +price drop=rule the world with sales. Ok so whats Halo3 +price drop equal?

 

Third, well since you listed whats coming for sony that makes a GG lets list microsoft shall we?

Price drop Halo3/mass effect/bioshock/rpg ownage=gg

 

BTW i do think that ps3 will overtake xbox IF ps3 gets a good move on japan and others, thats it. Ps3 has some fantasic exclusive games coming out, i cant wait, but to say that these exclusive games are alot better and will push alot more systems then xbox exclusives is hard to imagine

Edit: heh, when i meant xbox ownage i meant just for this holiday seasonn cause i dont see xbox winning rpg ownage for the rest of its console life O.O



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
Lost tears of Kain on 13 August 2007
MikeB said:
With future pricecuts, PS2 retirement (PS3 upgrade path), Blu-Ray winning and important exclusive game releases I have no doubt the PS3 will overtake XBox 360 total sales in course of time.

According to VGChartz' data (correct me if wrong), the PS3 managed to do something the XBox 360 has never been able to do thus far, this despite a one year headstart compared to the PS3 and being at a cheaper price tag (less room for future price drops through cost reductions).

The PS3 managaged to outsell the PS2 the last 2 weeks:

Worldwide sales according to VGChartz for the last two reported weeks:

PS3:............... 205,592
PS2:............... 205,389
Xbox 360:...... 113,531

In course of time, now thats a honost and believeable statement =)

You have to remember though those numbers are after the price cut, so its most likely to go down soon, but if ps3 and mantain that ammount for a while and xbox does not move up, it will def pass it but i dont think in 2008



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
KBG29 on 13 August 2007

@ Lost tears of Kain

Well GT sales are double that of Halo. So that would mean GT5 + price drop 2x> Halo 3 + price drop.

Their is IMO no way the 360 can stay ahead of the PS3 all of next year. Sony just has to many big name exclusives coming. MGS is going to sell a lot of consoles in all three regions, the Average consumer is going to get PS3 for GTA, GT5 is the best selling first party game in the last to generations, Devil May Cry will be more PS3 in Japan, Final Fantasy is going to mave many many consoles in japan, and if Home takes off that is a big problem for the 360. The 360 just can not keep pace with the PS3 in japan and Europe, and that is why it will get passed. I think this is possible by next dec. 31:

PS3
Japan - 5 Million
USA - 12 Milllion
Europe - 9 Million
Total - 26 Million

360
Japan - 900k
USA - 16 Million
Europe - 7 Million (optimistic)
Total - 22.9 Million



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Bodhesatva on 13 August 2007
rager1969 said:
Rath said:
1) The Wii will start losing it's appeal sometime in 2008 and you will be able to find them anywhere. The price will drop to a still too high $199. By early 2010, the gimmicky Wii-mote will not be enough to offset the slightly upgraded Gamecube graphics and Nintendo will have to drop to $99, at which point they will annouce either a replacement console with decent graphics or that they will be a handheld-only hardware company.

Im sorry but I have to say that this is possibly the funniest post ever to be seen on VGC. Most people who support a console, even those who do it in somewhat extreme ways such as Gball and Hus, keep some sense of reality.
Even considering the possibility of Nintendo bowing out of the console market this generation is just fantasy, considering the possibility of Nintendo not winning, believable. Considering the possibility of them giving up when they are already turning a massive profit? Not very likely Im afraid.

I was a bit sharp-tongued about the Wii. I don't hate it, but I was disappointed that Nintendo put most of it's effort into the Wii-mote and glossed over the graphics. The price tag bugged me, too. From day one, they were making a profit (and people criticize MS and Sony for being greedy, even though they are losing money on the hardware). But hey, what ever the market will bear. At least the Wii comes with a game.

Regarding Nintendo bowing out of consoles, I'm not saying it WILL or MUST happen, only that it's a possibility. Nintendo made certain choices with the Wii, choices I believe reduce its staying power. It was a big gamble, but obviously it's working for them, at least for the time being. If it stops working, they can't very well do more of the same for the next console. And if they decide they don't want to put money and effort into decent graphics, only to lose money on hardware, they might turn to a business model that makes more sense for them, like handheld-only.

 


You are aware that Nintendo has made 3x as much profit in the video game business over the last decade as Sony has, correct? If anyone is bowing out, it would be Microsoft. Why would the company that makes by far the most profit be the one to leave the industry? Can you please explain your reasoning? Let's say, just as a theoretical exercise, that the Wii magically reduced its sales figures to Gamecube figures, even though they are likely to approach that figure by year's end, just over a year after the release of their new system. In that situation, you are aware that Nintendo would still be making more money than Sony or Microsoft, correct?

The problem here is that you're big on opinion and small on empirical data. Clearly, you do not like the Wii very much. That is fine. However, just as clearly, a huge portion of people do not agree with you. It's selling profoundly better than any other console available. You assume that most others will feel the same way you do; that is clearly not the case. Instead of projecting your own opinions on to the general sphere, examine the data -- because it doesn't fit your hypothesis at all.



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Parokki on 13 August 2007

Hmm.. ioi mentioned in another thread that 360 sales > PS3 sales this week.

Extremely expected of course, but probably a forced reality check for those who took the PS3 with a pseudo-price cut outselling the Xbox 360 before any price cut as a sign of the tables turning.

The fight for second place is still going strong.



Lost tears of Kain on 13 August 2007
KBG29 said:
@ Lost tears of Kain

Well GT sales are double that of Halo. So that would mean GT5 + price drop 2x> Halo 3 + price drop.

Their is IMO no way the 360 can stay ahead of the PS3 all of next year. Sony just has to many big name exclusives coming. MGS is going to sell a lot of consoles in all three regions, the Average consumer is going to get PS3 for GTA, GT5 is the best selling first party game in the last to generations, Devil May Cry will be more PS3 in Japan, Final Fantasy is going to mave many many consoles in japan, and if Home takes off that is a big problem for the 360. The 360 just can not keep pace with the PS3 in japan and Europe, and that is why it will get passed. I think this is possible by next dec. 31:

PS3
Japan - 5 Million
USA - 12 Milllion
Europe - 9 Million
Total - 26 Million

360
Japan - 900k
USA - 16 Million
Europe - 7 Million (optimistic)
Total - 22.9 Million

hmm when you say that it will pass at least you do have reasonable expectations (unlike ps3 going to take over before summer of 08 from fanboys) and your totals could look very correct if ps3 can dominate europe and japan (it must become huge in japan to win)

BTW as for GT being bigger, do you mean in total sales for gt4 compared to halo 2 or what? But anyways with that GT 4 was on ps2 which had more then double the sales of the xbox so yes it did sell more, but a higher percentage of xbox owners owned halo compared to percentage of ps2 owning GT 4.

In US there is no doubt that halo is much  bigger then GT 4 i mean look what halo has for advertising (Burger king and its own mountain dew O.o) but GT 4 is higher in europe so....

Either way they are great franchises.



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
endimion on 13 August 2007

@Bodhesatva
lol good counter attack :P

but I don't see MS going out of the race... why ??? hmm because they pursue a higher purpose/target (no no i'm not being a MS prophet) the final objective is not console or hardware... it's getting all the MS software and what comes with it in your living room and your everyday life.... Bill gates 1 or 2 years ago was saying the future is the cell phone.... I think XB is just a way to touch the teenagers and young adults of that generation... to move on to a real multimedia platform and suite of hardware and software in the very long run.... So yeah they might get out of the console race... they won't get out of your living room lol

@KBG29
take it any way you want... it still highly improbable that it will happen in 2008.... even if XB didn't sell a single unit from christmas 2007 to christmas 2008.... it still probably won't happen.... the number of sale required is simply too high... and I'm sorry but your GT number is biased.... you have to take in account the number of console in circulation GT (the 3 one, the most successful one) sold roughly to 8% of the PS2 owners ... when halo 2 roughly sold to 32% of XB owners.... so yeah it sold more units over a much larger market.... bottom line it doesn't tell us anything really for now... especially not which of the two game will push more units....

GTA could be surprise... even if it's PS game in the mind of the consumer.. right bundling with the right advertising campain could turn that into an MS advantage especially since the new date they have plenty of time to install awareness on the exclusive content, drop the price etc... and don't have other big name like halo and new big budget IP's in the middle of the fight.... I think the report of the game if well handled could be in MS advantage...

now you have MGS left has a big gun, and FF if that last one is coming in 2008... it still poor IMO to hope closing a 6+ milion gap on MS.... especially since MS is far to have drought in 2008.... in just what we know they have already a good load of good games coming up and probably a lot of surprises to come.....

no the fate of PS3 on the short and mid run is this holiday season, they have to convince the public to buy now.... if they fail to do that I don't see them coming back until end 2009/ 2010, if they ever come back after such a failure...

but hey we can take bets on 2008 :) if you want



robjoh on 13 August 2007
Bonafide732 said:
robjoh said:
MikeB said:
@ robjoh

have hard to see that happening without selling well in all markets and MGS4 + GTA4 wont give that edge in Japan.


What about Final Fantasy?

Well I was discussing the possibility that PS3 passed xbox360 WW before end of 2008. FF will as earliest hit Japan in the end of 2008 so I don't think it will help. Of course most possible it will move a couple of 100k at least in Japan and greatly help PS3 pass xbox360 in early 2009.


like i said before the ps3 doesnt stand a chance to pass the 360 at all this year .. maybe towards the end of next year.. the ps3 has to have the japan market to its advantage to gain marketshare on the 360.. japan is so bad for the 360 now.. its gonna be interesting to see how multiplatform games do 360 vs PS3 in japan.. how many consoles will the 360 version sell vs. the ps3 version in japan.. DMC4 will it push PS3's or 360's in Japan?? if the ps3 can keep a steady edge in japan over the 360 (which it currently has but it will probably trickle down to the 15k range of sales) combined with selling well everywhere else i can see the ps3 closing the gap next year.... look at what the price drop did for it...at the start of july i believe it was 6.7 behind the 360 in sales but it closed it down to 6.1 or6.2 in a month....i would actually like to see it close the gap.. not because im a fanboy because im pro sony and MS but i think it will make the console wars fun and interesting..


Actualy it is quit bad for PS3 too, and that is why I don't see PS3 outsell xbox360 WW during 2007 the number I posted before I think is saying everything. Sadly no one has made a counter argumetation against those. 

15k per week is not enough for PS3 to beat xbox360 WW before end of 2008. They need atleast an avarage of 30k and others + USA = 110k, (then I am conting on no increased weekly sales for xbox360) to pass the 360 WW in the last week of 2008. Let us say that I think it is unlickly. I will keep those numbers updated.

I don't now the numbers for july, so mayby you are correct.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

robjoh on 16 August 2007

Time for a little update on what PS3 needs to sell per week to pass xbox360 before the end of 2008.

 

xbox360 salesall time high*
avarage *
all time high*
PS3 sales 144k
156k
167k

 *from start 08w31

So PS3 needs to sell somewhere around 144k-167k. This week PS3 sold 93k.

So do you still belive that PS3 will pass xbox360 before end of next year?



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!