It is still virtually being sold out.

Just posting the link stating that Wii is outpacing the Ps2 is a bit misleading though. Ps2 had a long time in Japan before the Americas/Others release, skewing that up.

Still, Wii is heavily outselling the Ps2.

What makes me think the Ps2 won't sell a lot more than the Ps2, is this.

- Ps2 had alot of re-purchases due to consoles breaking. The Wii doesn't have this problem.

- There is a cap on how much you can sell in the western world. In NA (Canada + US in this case) + western Europe there is a population of ~ 700M. Average is ~ 3.5 people pr family. So there's 200M families. The Ps2 sold 49 + 36M there, so 85M. That means almost 40% (excluding estimated number of re-purchases). How much can the Wii do really? It is facing much harder competition than the Ps2 did. XB + GC sold 41.8M in the western world, Ps360 is already at 40M, and it looks like they should beat 80M, if not

Let's say half the Ps360 owners own a Wii. That means that between 1/5 and 1/4 of the population own only Ps3, X360 or both. That means that if the Wii sold to 50% of the remaining, it would sell between 75M and 80M. 75-80% is the very max (MORE than 4 out of 5 people? Are you insane?) which leaves 125M as the very max the Wii could sell in western Europe + Americas. Add in Japan, and you get 140M as a max. Probable is ~ 125M for Japan + WE and NA. 

So, how much can the Wii sell in Eastern Europe + the rest of the world? The Ps2 did 6M in EE, so the Wii could perhaps do ~6M too (Ps3 has so far sold more than it there).

Australia could be ~ 3M (Ps2 = 2.5M-2.6M)

130-150M for Wii in those territories.

And then there's the rest of the world, which have so far been pretty minor markets, totalling ~ 6M for Ps2. I think 10M is the most probable for Wii (growing WW economy)

So unless Wii takes off in China, I see the Wii ending at 140-160M. Saying 180M + is totally unrealistic.

Compared to this, we can expect the Ps2 to end at around 140M, with ~ 15-20M of those being repurchases (?), that leaves a similar growth for leading console from 5th - 6th gen and 6th - 7th gen.

Claiming that the Wii will outsell the Playstation consoles combined is just foolish.

240M (Ps+Ps2) + ~ 50M is 290M. There is no way in hell that's going to happen.

Note: Any comments on this is greatly appreciated, and I'd love to be proven wrong with my analysis.

Oyvoyvoyv, Wii has penetration into households that PS2 never had, My parents have one of their own, my sister has one of her own. The only reason 360 and PS3 are selling more than the GCN/Xbox is because of poulation growth, the Wii has pop growth and new market penetration.  The Wii has much higher potential growth than you think

Oyvoyvoyv: Would you accept an alternative idea? It would be very difficult to simply prove you wrong, considering the basis of your assumption (which is that the Wii will be bought less because it breaks less).

 Population growth? In the western world? Hah...

Okay, this is the absolute best case scenario in each of these areas.

Americas + Canada = 85M (90% of all families buy one, which is impossible).

Western Europe =  90M (80% of all families buy one)

Japan = 25M (80% buy one)

Eastern Europe = 8M. It will somehow sell 8 times more in total than it has sold so far. It has by no means become a hip thing here, and is being outsold by the Playstation 3, and barely outselling the 360!

Australia  = 4M. Very optimistic.

Total: 210-220M (just so you know, this can't actually happen)

So in the rest of the world, which the Wii has so far sold less than 1M in, the Wii will sell 70-80M... Right.

Also, I cannot stress this enough. People DO NOT buy mulitple of the same console in a family. It may have happened in your family, and 10.000 families in the United States, but that doesn't inflict these numbers.

PS: I know I sound very harsh here, I apologize for that.

Ps2: I'd love to be proven wrong.

Actually, this is the point I wanted to say - this isn't strictly true. Multiple consoles in a single family isn't very unusual, especially when you reach the age where you send kids off to college. A statistically significant portion of college and university student-bearing families will end up purchasing another one or two systems. Does it make sense? To a degree - my brother and I both own separate Wiis, because I am at university and he isn't. When he goes to university and takes the Wii with him (and he will), he and I will probably purchase another one for our parents. We're hardly typical, but I believe this phenomenon occurs often enough to be significant.

More than that, we're assuming that the Wii is going to necessarily be replaced by a successor, and stop selling altogether. If you want a scenario wherein families (or even individuals) may buy more than one Wii over time, just think of the different generations of iPod.

Yes, it's very flimsy and completely hypothetical, but it's better than surety about the limited appeal of a console.

Would it be better to say that I believe the install base of the Wii will vastly dwarf that of the PS2, and this will be reflected in software sales?

Hmm, that's a very valid and strong point. I'm a bit baffled, as I didn't even think of it myself.

I'm not sure how I can fit that into my analysis though, and it may wreck the whole thing.

I have long since given up trying to predict the ultimate marketshare for any videogame system - either hardware failure rates or the possibility of other repeat purchases tends to shoot my math to Hell and gone.

I do think, however, that your analysis for the potential install base for the Wii is right on target.

Of course it wrecks the whole thing, duh, that's what i've been trying to tell you, your estimations of Wii sales is waay too low, the Wii appeals to a much larger group, so you will see multiple people in the same family owning Wii's where they wouldn't have owned PS2's

unless you believe in the fad theory still, you believe that the Wii will surpass all.

Definitely believe it should easily pass the ps2 in sales as despite not having the luxury of rebuys it has tapped into a larger population of people that would have never played or bought systems otherwise, like my parents and sis.