Future Wii Sales

[Oyvoyvoyv]

It is still virtually being sold out.

 

Just posting the link stating that Wii is outpacing the Ps2 is a bit misleading though. Ps2 had a long time in Japan before the Americas/Others release, skewing that up.

Still, Wii is heavily outselling the Ps2.

 

What makes me think the Ps2 won't sell a lot more than the Ps2, is this.

- Ps2 had alot of re-purchases due to consoles breaking. The Wii doesn't have this problem.

- There is a cap on how much you can sell in the western world. In NA (Canada + US in this case) + western Europe there is a population of ~ 700M. Average is ~ 3.5 people pr family. So there's 200M families. The Ps2 sold 49 + 36M there, so 85M. That means almost 40% (excluding estimated number of re-purchases). How much can the Wii do really? It is facing much harder competition than the Ps2 did. XB + GC sold 41.8M in the western world, Ps360 is already at 40M, and it looks like they should beat 80M, if not

Let's say half the Ps360 owners own a Wii. That means that between 1/5 and 1/4 of the population own only Ps3, X360 or both. That means that if the Wii sold to 50% of the remaining, it would sell between 75M and 80M. 75-80% is the very max (MORE than 4 out of 5 people? Are you insane?) which leaves 125M as the very max the Wii could sell in western Europe + Americas. Add in Japan, and you get 140M as a max. Probable is ~ 125M for Japan + WE and NA. 

So, how much can the Wii sell in Eastern Europe + the rest of the world? The Ps2 did 6M in EE, so the Wii could perhaps do ~6M too (Ps3 has so far sold more than it there).

Australia could be ~ 3M (Ps2 = 2.5M-2.6M)

130-150M for Wii in those territories.

 

 

And then there's the rest of the world, which have so far been pretty minor markets, totalling ~ 6M for Ps2. I think 10M is the most probable for Wii (growing WW economy)

 

So unless Wii takes off in China, I see the Wii ending at 140-160M. Saying 180M + is totally unrealistic.

Compared to this, we can expect the Ps2 to end at around 140M, with ~ 15-20M of those being repurchases (?), that leaves a similar growth for leading console from 5th - 6th gen and 6th - 7th gen.

 

Claiming that the Wii will outsell the Playstation consoles combined is just foolish.

240M (Ps+Ps2) + ~ 50M is 290M. There is no way in hell that's going to happen.

 

Note: Any comments on this is greatly appreciated, and I'd love to be proven wrong with my analysis.