| Oyvoyvoyv said:
Also, I cannot stress this enough. People DO NOT buy mulitple of the same console in a family. It may have happened in your family, and 10.000 families in the United States, but that doesn't inflict these numbers. |
Actually, this is the point I wanted to say - this isn't strictly true. Multiple consoles in a single family isn't very unusual, especially when you reach the age where you send kids off to college. A statistically significant portion of college and university student-bearing families will end up purchasing another one or two systems. Does it make sense? To a degree - my brother and I both own separate Wiis, because I am at university and he isn't. When he goes to university and takes the Wii with him (and he will), he and I will probably purchase another one for our parents. We're hardly typical, but I believe this phenomenon occurs often enough to be significant.
More than that, we're assuming that the Wii is going to necessarily be replaced by a successor, and stop selling altogether. If you want a scenario wherein families (or even individuals) may buy more than one Wii over time, just think of the different generations of iPod.
Yes, it's very flimsy and completely hypothetical, but it's better than surety about the limited appeal of a console.
Would it be better to say that I believe the install base of the Wii will vastly dwarf that of the PS2, and this will be reflected in software sales?
