fun mental exercise:

Since its release, Twilight Princess for Wii has managed to work itself up into the 100 top selling games list... multiple times. It's sales rate is at this amazingly perfect pace that has allowed it to be passed by various newer releases (like Wii Play, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii, Brawl, Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto 4, Call of Duty 4, etc) and subsequently pushed out of the 100 top selling games, but then later had its own sales push it back into the 100 top sellers list. Currently, it is at the very last place of the 100 top sellers, but would only need a scant 200,000 copies to bring it up as much as 8 places.

So the question is this:

Will Twilight Princess sales retain its place in the top 100, and how many times, if any, will it continue to drop in and out of the 100 top sellers list?

Also, will a future Zelda game on the Wii break Twilight Princess's chances of staying in the 100 top sellers slot?

Okay, let's see.

For this week, TP sold 25K. So if we assume that it sells 30K for the next 4 weeks (rest of the year) that puts it at a tad under 5.1M.

That puts it at between 900 and 950K for the year 2008.

It won't make that kind of numbers in 09, as if you look at this graph: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=The+Legend+of+Zelda%3A+Twilight+Princess+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=147&weekly=1

you can see that its sales were at 15-20K at the start of the year, then 6-12K later on in the year.

Still, if we say the sales half themselves for next year, making them end at 400-450K, leaving it at 5.5M (and this is slightly pessimistic, it could get platinum or something) this will make it pass 19 previous generation games.

There's no way 19 this generation games will break 5.5M next year.

Then after that, it will definitely sell more than 400K more, making it break 5.9M, beating 7 more games.

So I see it passing 26 games that will not pass it.

If you look at last gen, 16 games passed 6M (which is needed to beat TP's almost certain lifetime).

So far this gen, 18 games have passed 6M. This means that for TP not to be in the top 100 by the end of the generation, 44 games this generation would have to beat 6M. In the previous 6 (well, 4 really), 41 games have made that.

There is no doubt. TP will be in the top 100 games by the end of the generation.

It is likely to drop out several times first though.

probaly will, but I think the next zelda will beat it out

I dont want the next Zelda to sell more, its because the game will most likely be casualised even more than it already has been. (its easer)

Yes it will stay for a long time, its zelda