Predictions; Will Twilight Princess stay in top 100?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Okay, let's see.

For this week, TP sold 25K. So if we assume that it sells 30K for the next 4 weeks (rest of the year) that puts it at a tad under 5.1M.

That puts it at between 900 and 950K for the year 2008.

It won't make that kind of numbers in 09, as if you look at this graph: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=The+Legend+of+Zelda%3A+Twilight+Princess+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=147&weekly=1

you can see that its sales were at 15-20K at the start of the year, then 6-12K later on in the year.

 

Still, if we say the sales half themselves for next year, making them end at 400-450K, leaving it at 5.5M (and this is slightly pessimistic, it could get platinum or something) this will make it pass 19 previous generation games.

There's no way 19 this generation games will break 5.5M next year.

 

Then after that, it will definitely sell more than 400K more, making it break 5.9M, beating 7 more games.

 

So I see it passing 26 games that will not pass it.

 

If you look at last gen, 16 games passed 6M (which is needed to beat TP's almost certain lifetime).

So far this gen, 18 games have passed 6M. This means that for TP not to be in the top 100 by the end of the generation, 44 games this generation would have to beat 6M. In the previous 6 (well, 4 really), 41 games have made that.

 

There is no doubt. TP will be in the top 100 games by the end of the generation.

It is likely to drop out several times first though.