By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - The Sales Cross Over: It's Real. What are the implications industry wide?

leo-j on 08 August 2007

Is it just me or does everybody want the 360 to burn?



 

mM
Around the Network
WiteoutKing on 08 August 2007

I don't. I liked the Xbox, and I like the Xbox 360. It's hitting one hell of a lot of stumbling blocks, though. I want to see the line of consoles to continue.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

TheSource on 09 August 2007

I'd like to mention something else...

Current Other Sales: 360 - 3.253 million, Wii - 2.710 million

3.253-2.710 million = .543 million difference

Wii sales this week - 65k

360 sales this week - 18k

65k Wii-18k 360 = Wii gains 47k on 360 in Others/week

543k/47k = 11.55 weeks.

At current rates, Wii will pass Xbox 360 in Others by November 1, 2007.  If 360 gets a significant sales boost in others, this could be delayed into December.  Still - it should happen in 2007. 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

DoesWhatNintenDont on 09 August 2007
TheSource said:
Don't expect Microsoft to pull out after this generation. Losses right now are like ~$7,000,000,000 for the Entertainment Division since Xbox launched. By the end of the generation, losses will either be ~$10,000,000,000 (Microsoft keeps losing money) or more like $ ~5,000,000,000 (360 becomes profitable for a while).

Most analysts believe Microsoft won't leave unless they lose over $20,000,000,000 on Xbox brand/consoles/gaming. They have at least two more generations of huge losses for that. At some point before then, I think that Microsoft will be consistently profitable in the industry.


Source,

Most of those analysts were making that prediction pre-Vista launch. Granted Vista has made money, but overall it has been VERY poorly received by the mass market. MS's monopoly will naturally push Vista to higher numbers, but the public is becoming more aware of Windows alternatives.

While this isn't hugely significant yet, what we are seeing is pieces of MS's monopoly slowly start to chip. I for one HIGHLY doubt that we will see MS run themselves twenty billion in the red with Xbox before they pull out.

They are already having slower than expected sales on many of their products,( Zune anyone? ) thus their overall net profits are not going to be riding on a high for the next few years unless they are really able to bank their money on other invested endeavors.

"There are three types of lies : Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli ( Made famous by Mark Twain )

PSN ID: DeviantPathways

Wii Number: 0081 3044 1559 2355

 

jstam on 09 August 2007
DoesWhatNintenDont said:
TheSource said:
Don't expect Microsoft to pull out after this generation. Losses right now are like ~$7,000,000,000 for the Entertainment Division since Xbox launched. By the end of the generation, losses will either be ~$10,000,000,000 (Microsoft keeps losing money) or more like $ ~5,000,000,000 (360 becomes profitable for a while).

Most analysts believe Microsoft won't leave unless they lose over $20,000,000,000 on Xbox brand/consoles/gaming. They have at least two more generations of huge losses for that. At some point before then, I think that Microsoft will be consistently profitable in the industry.


Source,

Most of those analysts were making that prediction pre-Vista launch. Granted Vista has made money, but overall it has been VERY poorly received by the mass market. MS's monopoly will naturally push Vista to higher numbers, but the public is becoming more aware of Windows alternatives.

While this isn't hugely significant yet, what we are seeing is pieces of MS's monopoly slowly start to chip. I for one HIGHLY doubt that we will see MS run themselves twenty billion in the red with Xbox before they pull out.

They are already having slower than expected sales on many of their products,( Zune anyone? ) thus their overall net profits are not going to be riding on a high for the next few years unless they are really able to bank their money on other invested endeavors.

 excellent post, i was just about to type that vista doesnt seem to be having the adoption rate of previous microsoft o/s.

besides windows,zune,xbox what else is microsoft losing/making money in?



Around the Network
stranne on 09 August 2007

The real cross over might be when Wii reaches 50% of total (non-handheld) market. When do you think that will happen?



stranne on 09 August 2007
jstam said:

besides windows,zune,xbox what else is microsoft losing/making money in?


Mice, keyboards, web cams. I think they're doing ok there.

 And other software of course, like Office.



Bodhesatva on 09 August 2007
stranne said:
jstam said:

besides windows,zune,xbox what else is microsoft losing/making money in?


Mice, keyboards, web cams. I think they're doing ok there.

And other software of course, like Office.

And internet explorer. And business software, such as Cel phones. They have their hand in a lot of markets that people don't tend to care much about, unless you're a businessman. It's kind of like IBM.

 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Viper1 on 09 August 2007
stranne said:
The real cross over might be when Wii reaches 50% of total (non-handheld) market. When do you think that will happen?

 Intersting question.   They are at just over 41% now.  50% would be X360+ PS3.  Typical weekly gain above both is 90k.  Difference is currently 4,330,000.  48.1 weeks at current rates.

The holidays and supply could shorten that time frame considerably. 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

ItsaMii on 09 August 2007
DoesWhatNintenDont said:
TheSource said:
Don't expect Microsoft to pull out after this generation. Losses right now are like ~$7,000,000,000 for the Entertainment Division since Xbox launched. By the end of the generation, losses will either be ~$10,000,000,000 (Microsoft keeps losing money) or more like $ ~5,000,000,000 (360 becomes profitable for a while).

Most analysts believe Microsoft won't leave unless they lose over $20,000,000,000 on Xbox brand/consoles/gaming. They have at least two more generations of huge losses for that. At some point before then, I think that Microsoft will be consistently profitable in the industry.


Source,

Most of those analysts were making that prediction pre-Vista launch. Granted Vista has made money, but overall it has been VERY poorly received by the mass market. MS's monopoly will naturally push Vista to higher numbers, but the public is becoming more aware of Windows alternatives.

While this isn't hugely significant yet, what we are seeing is pieces of MS's monopoly slowly start to chip. I for one HIGHLY doubt that we will see MS run themselves twenty billion in the red with Xbox before they pull out.

They are already having slower than expected sales on many of their products,( Zune anyone? ) thus their overall net profits are not going to be riding on a high for the next few years unless they are really able to bank their money on other invested endeavors.

 Source, that sounds too extreme. I do not doubt that analists said that, but that is insane. Could you show some links for this please? I would like to read more about this issue. With that kind of money you could almost "buy" some South and Central American countries (just look at their GNPs). I think shareholders would hang themselves if MS lost that amount of money.



Satan said:

"You are for ever angry, all you care about is intelligence, but I repeat again that I would give away all this superstellar life, all the ranks and honours, simply to be transformed into the soul of a merchant's wife weighing eighteen stone and set candles at God's shrine."