Oh come on guys let's not be silly here. PS3 isn't going anywhere for awhile. Even if Sony "admits defeat" and stops being competitive with pricing and whatnot it'll still exist on the market. Exist in similar ways to what the GC and Xbox did but selling a lot better. I mean PS3 didn't have that bad of year... just not having a great later half of the year. If this later half suggests anything, it would be for a slope downward for the PS3 for the next 3-4 years. By the 3rd year, the PS4 will be out.

I mean Sony is still selling lots of PS3's. Maybe not a winning amount but enough that over time they can hope to achieve profits. That's what's Sony is going to do.

Woah I'm getting a déja vu.

Whoa I never thought that there would be a day were Sony was on going to be on a bad position.

I don't believe in the 10 year plan, but I don't believe in early death either. You don't get far in business by turning tail at the first sign of trouble, and Sony's gotten pretty dang far.

The PS3 is gonna be around for a while, and then Sony will decide that the time is right for the PS4. What I think *is* true is that PS3 support won't last as long into the next gen as PS2 support has lasted in this one, so a shorter lifespan overall. The PS4 will *have* to offer BC so they don't further screw the PS3 owners in this gen.

So the people who said "2007 will be the year of the PS3" were sort of correct?

How can last year be its peak year, when it is selling more this year?

I find it very unlikely that the Ps3's peak year will be 2007, heck - even impossible. :P

As for 2008, maybe. I definately don't believe in the 33% increase next year (which I did up untill ~ 1.5 months ago).

I figure 2009 will be pretty equal to 2008 for the Ps3. That means 8.5-10.5M.

There is no way Ps3 will die out in Europe. It is still doing very well. No doubt, it will outsell the 360 there in 09.

Ps3 has one HUGE advantage over pretty much any previous losing console.

The Xbox360.

Making a game for Ps360 leaves you the same (or at the most in 2009, a 20% smaller) base than the Wiining console.

Developers still seem to put their big projects on Ps360, rather than Wii. That's a fact.

So the Ps3 has a HUGE brandname in Europe, which is very likely to keep it selling for a while.

The 360, which ensures it a lot of great multiplatform games.

Another note is that your Ps3 vs Saturn is incredibly flawed. The Saturn ended with less than 3M sales in Americas + Others. Hardly comparable to the Ps3.

I sort of see the Ps3's life ala the lines of

2007: 7.9M

2008: ~ 10M

2009: ~ 9M

2010: ~ 7M

2011: ~ 5M

2012-eternity: ~ 4M

Which leaves it at around 40-45M. One thing that would be very abnormal about this, is the console peaking in its 2nd year.

An optimistic lookout for the Ps3 would be

2007: 7.9M

2008: ~ 10M

2009: ~ 11M

2010: ~ 9M

2011: ~ 7M

2012: ~ 5M

2013-eternity: ~ 4M

Which gives it 50-55M.

Still, you're looking at between 1/3 and 1/2 of the Ps3's total sales to be after 2009. I wouldn't call that dead.

@ Oyvoyvoyv: I agree. I think PS3 will get around 50m as well.

As for the whole discussion: SCE already lost too much money with the PS3. They are currently trying to make a profit (probably forced by the big guys at Sony). All of Sony is struggling, they need to make as much money as possible.

I wonder if the effects would be even worse than that.

*déjà.

But yeah, I agree with you (not the OP).

Damn, big mistake! :(