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Forums - Sales Discussion - End of generation Predictions

@BTFeather55

Actually, X360 library to date is weak comparing to Wii's if we speaking about games oriented towards so called "new audience" of Wii, just take a look at top sellers - what X360 has? And that despite of a fact that Wii is much more recognizeable brand among these people than Xbox. So, MS still have no chance competing with Nintendo at it's ground, next gen may be, but I still doubt they will at full power.



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Yes, but the "new audience" only buys a few games. Look at the sales of the top games on Wii. Wii Sports only sells well because it is packed into the Wii's box (you don't see Wii Play still hanging out in each week's Top 10 do you)? Wii Fit only sells well because of hype from nongame sources. Apparently, it does allow certain people to exercise; however, you don't see these people buying Wii games in large numbers. Ie. Metroid Prime 3 isn't even at 2 million. The Wii is beatable and if is too late to really catch and pass its total numbers, it would be possible for another console to start to put a dent in it and really keep it from getting PS2 numbers because one advantage PS2 had in the long run was a great library of games which the Wii won't even begin to match. See how the Wii is the highest selling console, but GTA 4, Gears, and Halo 3 are still among the top selling games this gen. I can tell you one thing Nintendo isn't getting any of my money for a Wii, so at least I'm going to do my part in and beginning the Wii Resistance.



Heavens to Murgatoids.

BTFeather55 said:

Yes, but the "new audience" only buys a few games. Look at the sales of the top games on Wii. Wii Sports only sells well because it is packed into the Wii's box (you don't see Wii Play still hanging out in each week's Top 10 do you)? Wii Fit only sells well because of hype from nongame sources. Apparently, it does allow certain people to exercise; however, you don't see these people buying Wii games in large numbers. Ie. Metroid Prime 3 isn't even at 2 million. The Wii is beatable and if is too late to really catch and pass its total numbers, it would be possible for another console to start to put a dent in it and really keep it from getting PS2 numbers because one advantage PS2 had in the long run was a great library of games which the Wii won't even begin to match. See how the Wii is the highest selling console, but GTA 4, Gears, and Halo 3 are still among the top selling games this gen. I can tell you one thing Nintendo isn't getting any of my money for a Wii, so at least I'm going to do my part in and beginning the Wii Resistance.

In other news, Halo 3 only sells well because of the massive hype, it's actually a really bad game. Uncharted only sells well because of it's beautiful graphics and a really stubborn group of people trying to proclaim it's a good game. I can only tell you that Sony and Microsoft aren't getting any of my money for their consoles, so at least I'm going to do my part in beginning the HD resistance.

EDIT: Since you didn't get it, let me clarify: Your arguments are silly. Just as silly as mine.



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No, Halo I and 2 sold well because they had great stories in their first player modes for console shooters. Also, they had features not seen before in console shooters like the ability to switch from FPS modes to driving vehicles like the Warthog, tank, ghost and flying banshees. Also, they had the best graphics of any console games of their time (The Conduit doesn't really look as good now), awesome music, and strong muliplayer aspects. I haven't played Halo 3, so I can't tell you if it matches up with the first two or not.

Uncharted is popular because it has one of the best stories seen in an adventure genre item even in movies (it is better than the Crystal Skull story and characterwise for sure), great music, more gameplay elements than Gears and definitely more than flick your wrist this way to hit the ball or swivel your waist and lose some weight.

Well have fun playing the slew of second rate survival horror and rpg games that Nintendo is bringing to the market to try to appease core fans until the release of the next Zelda and Mario in 2010 and in the Wii games that you play for a couple of hours during a sixth month period after their novelty wears off.



Heavens to Murgatoids.

@BTFeather55

Comparing to Marathon series, Halo sucks in terms of story-telling, sure there's a huge background, so called "Bungie myths", but nobody knows it besides true Bungie fans, like me (btw not Halo fan). Halo release is milestone event in gaming history, BUT this popularity leads to constant cloning which in turn leads to phenomena of so called traditional, linear or mainstream shooters which overflowed current western market like jRPGs overflowed japanese market - that's the reason I stoped playing these games unless something unique appears on horizon. I played Halo and did finish it, played Halo 2, but didn't finish it, and have no intentions in playing Halo 3.

Speaking about Metroid Prime 3 - it sells well, more than Metroid Prime 2. Metroid franchise has a strong but limited following (like MGS), which hardly expands over time. Gameplay mechanics of Metroid Prime series is still unique, 'cos unlike Halo series it for some reason wasn't copied, and thus Metroid Prime 3 is nothing new in the series, BUT it's still fan to play for me. There're so little games on the market of this sort, like Metroids. So no way Metroid Prime, single-player oriented game with a story, displayed through text messages, and not linear gameplay, would be huge like Halo. For most people Metroids are boring, bad for them.

Speaking about Wii, you didn't even look further into Wii library besides "Wii..." titles. I don't know whether or not Wii is going to satisfy your someday, but you must admit Wii is successful because of games, even those games don't apply to you. There're a couple of threads whether or not Wii flollowing DS trend, I'm sure it is following DS trend, but don't know how successful - the future will show. But the whole idea of "smth DS-like at home console market" is what I higly interested in. This's NOT like PS2, and I don't get why it should be? Everyone become a champion in it's own way, and that's why I'm saying that Wii (or it's successor) has a great chance to be better than PS2 in terms of evolving industry further. PS2 in the past, Wii is our future ;)



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I have a Gamecube. I even have a Gameboy Player on my Christmas list if I'm allowed to have a Christmas list in my 30's because I would like to go back and play a lot of the GBA rpgs and games like Zelda: The Minish Cap (chronologically according to Game Trailers the first game in the Zelda series) that I missed on my hd tv, and I would like to get a DS sometime before the non GBA compatible one is released.

I haven't gotten very far in Metroid Prime, but it is a game that I am currently playing (although, I took a break, because I seemed to get stuck shortly after I landed on the planet and I've been playing Tomb Raider Legend more -- both from my previously unplayed collection -- because I like watching Lara better than looing through Samus' visor, and I'm trying to get my xbox achievements up to a respectable level. Lara looks great on the 360 in the Japan level in her dress and with her hair down.  And she doesn't look as good on the Wii as she does on the PS3 and 360 in Underworld). From what I played of it, I wouldn't put MP up there with Halo I or II yet.

According to this site, the numbers for the Metroid Prime series are I = 2.83 million, 2 = 1.29 million, and 3 = 1.44 million which pale in comparison to games that Metroid Prime should have sold better than which is almost anything that isnt called Mario, Zelda, or Super Smash Brothers on the Wii or whose title starts with the word "Wii".

Here's my big problem with the Wii: I was thinking about getting a Wii during the holiday season '06. I had all three last gen consoles. And, if I had purchased one then I probably wouldn't have a PS3 now. However, due to the shortages (which there is no way to prove this unless Nintendo says they did it; however, I think Nintendo looked at how having shortages during the Christmas '05 season worked in the 360's favor to generate hype and demand for that console and borrowed a page from that book by making the Wii scarce during Christmas '06 and '07 generating much word of mouth interest for the Wii especially in its "new market") I was unable to buy the cheaper Wii during the Christmas holidays '06, and it would have fit my budget far better than the PS3. So, when I saw Playstation 3 in stores in early '07..

 

 (I'm not sure when I first saw a Wii in a store.  The first time I ever saw some in the game cabinet at my nearest Wal~Mart was early July '08.  I had seen some at my nearest Hastings prior to that but they all had a sticker on them saying, "No Returns" leading one to believe they were probably broken, and my nearest Game Stop had Wii boxes in their stores last year, but as I had already purchased a PS3, I didn't bother to ask about them.  Then it seems like they didn't have Wii boxes for a long time.  Then I saw Wii boxes in that Game Stop earlier this year and I was curious to know if they had Wii's in stock, and they said, "No, we just have the boxes for display purposes."  Around the same time in Spring early Summer of '08, I also overheard a salesman at my local Best Buy tell a customer that they hadn't had Wii's in stock since they were first released.) 

 

..I decided to buy a Playstation 3 thinking surely the console would catch on and have the same success as the PS1 and PS2. It was a much more powerful console and should have had a PS2 type game library. However, the Wii remained scarce and in the process generating more demand than if it had been more readilly available. Scarcity does lead to demand, isn't that a principle of economics?

So, anyway, here we stand at Christmas '08. It looks like the PS3 is on the way out and the underpowered Wii is going to start getting all the best Japanese games at least, and it bums me out.



Heavens to Murgatoids.

BTFeather55 said:

Here's my big problem with the Wii: I was thinking about getting a Wii during the holiday season '06. I had all three last gen consoles. And, if I had purchased one then I probably wouldn't have a PS3 now. However, due to the shortages (which there is no way to prove this unless Nintendo says they did it; however, I think Nintendo looked at how having shortages during the Christmas '05 season worked in the 360's favor to generate hype and demand for that console and borrowed a page from that book by making the Wii scarce during Christmas '06 and '07 generating much word of mouth interest for the Wii especially in its "new market") I was unable to buy the cheaper Wii during the Christmas holidays '06, and it would have fit my budget far better than the PS3. So, when I saw them in stores in early '07, I decided to buy a Playstation 3 thinking surely the console would catch on and have the same success as the PS1 and PS2. It was a much more powerful console and should have had a PS2 type game library. However, the Wii remained scarce and in the process generating more demand than if it had been more readilly available. Scarcity does lead to demand, isn't that a principle of economics?

 

You're basically saying that by putting out less consoles, they sell more. Just take a quick glance at that statement. Let me put it to you like this:

There are 4 people wanting to buy your product. You produce 3. Thus, you sell 5.

Or how about this:

Looking at previous trends, you see that products similar to yours have been selling at a rate of around 5 per week. So you produce 10 per week so that you can create a fake demand when they sell out.

You could also look at it like this:

There are 10+ people standing in line for your product. Thus you make 8 units, sell them and hope that the other people standing in line will not get a similar one but instead tell all their friends about this awesome thing they could not buy.

 

In short, the theory that Nintendo is trying to create artificial demand really doesn't make sense. You DO NOT WANT to miss sales because you didn't produce enough. Especially if you make money on every single unit sold. That is the actual economic principle.

Nintendo does gain publicity on being constantly sold out, yes. But if they had been able to produce more from the start, they would have sold more from the start, and that would have been better for software sales and word of mouth as well.

Also, it's kinda hard to create artificial demand that lasts for two years. I would dare say that it is impossible. It might have been possible if the Wii was a fad. Are you saying the Wii is a fad? It's also true that Nintendo has increased its production by over 100% the last two years, in order to keep up with demand. That is quite telling. If you want artificial demand, why increase production?



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it bums you out?
BTFeather?

newb...get a Wii..if you like japanese games..DS+Wii is THE way to go



The PSP will have 98.385394% market Share.........

Hmmm.... I mite have went a little to high on that ...... :P



4 ≈ One

"Also, it's kinda hard to create artificial demand that lasts for two years. I would dare say that it is impossible. It might have been possible if the Wii was a fad. Are you saying the Wii is a fad? It's also true that Nintendo has increased its production by over 100% the last two years, in order to keep up with demand. That is quite telling. If you want artificial demand, why increase production?"

I think the Wii popularity started out as a fad due to its lower cost and scarcity, but it became more than that due to the same reasons and a handful (as opposed to the bucket load on the 360) of good games. You would increase production so that you could have the consoles in the warehouse when enough people were ready to buy them.



Heavens to Murgatoids.