So you think a company should release they have plans to cut the price of their product months before it really happens and during the busy shopping month of the year? Yes, it is completely logical to deny that. And his report coincides with GFK's report... so yes... it is logical to believe him on the numbers.

 He's a liar. Sony will drop the price in the spring.

The differences between shipped and sold, for the X360 and PS3, will be meaningless.  No retail outlet will stockpile either of these consoles, unlike the Wii.  For all intensive purposes, shipped will be on par with sold, on a delayed basis.

Also remember that, once its shipped to the retailer, that's it, the retailer who ordered the shipment owns the console.  Shipped == sold, as far as Sony and MS are concerned.  The only way the retailer can recieve money back from Sony/MS at that point, is by means of honoring a manufacturer pricecut, where they are reimbursed the difference on units they still own.

The question is what countries they consider Europe.

Also he says "I am confident that this is so."

Not that it's actually true.

Sounds to me like he's guessing.

Really?  At my work we return merchandise all the time we can't sell.  I know, i'm the one who sends it all back.  We don't sell videogame consoles, but we do sell various software and hardware products like DVD players and computer programs/games.

We've usually got a good 6 months to a year to return anything we can't sell.

Is there anything Sony could say which would make you think no price cut is coming?

 show me a break down of the ps3.

You mean a detailed break down of the cost of production? Count on that, a company releasing the details of their production.

Some people have convinced themselves the March price cut rumor is true, and nothing anyone says will make them doubt it.

Stores can typically return defective merchandise to the manufacturer, but they have to have a good reason (i.e. it has to actually be defective).  All the consoles are not supposed to be returned to the retailers at all, for this same reason (they don't like to rely upon the retailers evaluation of "defective").

Retail is about risk.  If it was all effectively consignment, retail would be basically a risk-free form of generating income, and everyone and their dog would sell consoles.  Usually the same thing applies to video games, DVDs, and music -- as a matter of fact, this is why the vast majority (if not all) of retailers will not allow you to return a game or DVD, except in exchange for another exact copy (then they return the one you brought back as "defective").  If retailers (like Target, Wal-mart, etc.) could simply return games to the manufacturer, without them being defective, you'd never see clearance items.  Ever.

If you're returning non-defective games and DVDs, you're almost assuredly breaking your contract with the manufacturer who sold you the item in the first place.  Usually a proof of purchase (and return) by a consumer is sufficient claim for an items "defective" status, from the manufacturer's viewpoint, even if its not actually defective.  Its not usually worth the time to check, in the case of games.  For consoles, it is worth the time... thus consumer returns are not supposed to go through retailers.

With this, Sony just confirmed that they will be surpassed by the 360 in only 2 to 3 weeks.