Nope you're not the only one. The 360 is always underestimated by most in these forums. The 360 will outsell the PS3 every month the rest of the year and will easily sell around 1.5m in Dec alone in the U.S.

I just posted this in another thread, but it works here too:

Looking back through the historical numbers for the Americas/Others/Japan it strikes me that in a peak December sales of 5 million (hardware) is possible if a console is selling strongly everywhere, and available in all three regions.

PS2 had a 5 million+ (sell through to gamers) December (worldwide) in 2002. I don't expect Wii's December to be that strong in 2007 - but I'd watch for it next year. PS2 did nearly 3 million in the USA that year in December over 2 million in Europe (Dec), and over 400k in Japan (Dec). The main reasons?

- Compelling content
- First holiday of $199 PS2.

My comparisons for Wii in 2007 assume Wii is cheaper than PS2 in holiday 2001, but more expensive than PS2 in holiday 2002. PS2 did 2 million in the Americas in 2001 in December, over a million in Others in 2001, and 800k in Japan.

It is pretty reasonable to expect Wii to do at least 3.75 million in December.
I'd put at it ~ 2 million USA/2.3 million Americas, 800k Japan, 1.2 million Others
Roughly 4.3 million Wiis sold in December 2007.

Edit - see below on how this works out for Wii worldwide in 2007 (assuming Nintendo beats their forecast again)

Basically, 11.1 million end of Aug, 12.3 million end of Sept, 13.5 end of Oct, 15.5 end of Nov, ~20 million end of December. That is the ramp up I expect.

@TheSource,

I think your numbers are possible but the only thing holding me back from completely agree'ing is that I don't think they need to hit 20m by the end of the year to meet their estimates and their estimate is our biggest clue to the size of the stockpiling which is required for big holiday numbers.

In effect what I am saying is I am not sure if they will have that many stockpiled. The situation with the Wii makes it the most volatile console this holiday. We have to make assumptions about the stockpiling and if we assume there is stockpiling then we have to make determinations about how much there is.

Honestly, anyone who is within 1m with their estimate at the end of the for the Wii did pretty good imo.

I would be very surprised if Sony kept the cheaper to produce 80GB PS3 at 600 USD after the 60GB model is cleared.

Think that in Europe the 60GB is already the cheaper software emulation model, and here we got a special pack with 2 sixaxis and 2 games for the 600. I believe the motivation behind these actions is they needed to push sales first, and as a nice side effect get rid of the old model. Not the other way around.

The marketing is just brilliant, people know the 60GB is a better machine (hardware emulation, possibility to upgrade HD if needed anyway, and more than 20GB, of course) so it creates the urgency to buy it soon. Then the stock is bigger than expected, but the urgency is kept since nobody really knows if today is the last day, sales are kept high. Then, when the stock is finally finished, surprise! the 80 is lowered to 500 USD with at least one good game and let's say the new sixaxis. More sales to come, since then people no longer feel they missed the really good deal.

Not following this very logical path and keeping the 80GB as it is at the current price would freeze sales. Differently from many people around here, I don't think Sony is that stupid.

We'll see it soon, anyway.

Well, I can't really predict specific numbers. I'll predict that the PS3 will outsell the 360 for the rest of the year, except for a couple weeks after Halo 3 comes out. The Wii will continue to sell as many units as Nintendo can turn out.

I wanted to add a couple of factors that you didnt consider.

Wii:
- Supply constraints. I know they are stockpiling but we just dont know how many they will have for the holidays. IF* they can put more than 4.5 million units on the shelf then the other consoles will really hurt. I think what is going to happen is that if people dont see a Wii then they will buy a competitors consoles but if the Wii is there then the 360 and PS3 need to do something more drastic. My prediction is that they are going to have more than 4 million units ready just for Nov & Dec. Nintendo has played the market fairly well so far which tells me they have some good brains working for them somewhere.

360:
- Reliability problems and its horrendous public image. When reading about the 360 I cant help but notice that it has become the laughing stalk of the generation due to its reliability issues. It seems that everyone who has one, loves it but no one can, in good conscious, recommend it to any of their friends and family due to the fact they break down so frequently. Many are also at the point where they are simply fed up with the 360 and will never buy 1 again. I think people are underestimating the effects of "word of mouth." If MS can get the Falcon out soon and fix this image they will do better than expected due to their software lineup. My prediction is that the healing process will start this holiday season but it will take longer for word to get out to everyone. They will perform slightly better than you predicted.
- People who want Halo already have a system. I dont think it will sell nearly as many consoles as people think.

PS3:
- Serious managerial problems. Sony has internal issues that need to be addressed. They are in a very confused state where the right hand doesnt know what the left is doing. The result of the confusion is a catatonic state where it will become increasingly hard to make decisions unless out of despiration. They need to fire some people and bring on some intellectuals to help them weather the storm. My prediction is that they will continue to make uneducated (aka boneheaded) moves through these holidays followed by a huge head rolling bonanza after they fail to meet their own lopsided estimates once again. My prediction based on the level of intellegince ive seen so far; no price cut will come once the the 60gig sku is sold out and they still wont have a great software library.

Here are my predictions: