TheSource said:
| Month End | 1-Sep | 6-Oct | 3-Nov | 1-Dec | 5-Jan | | Month Length | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | 4 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | | Console | August | September | October | November | December | | Wii | 460,000 | 430,000 | 408,000 | 975,000 | 2,000,000 | | Xbox 360 | 300,000 | 450,000 | 400,000 | 575,000 | 1,400,000 | | PS3 | 110,000 | 140,000 | 150,000 | 380,000 | 870,000 |
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I wanted to add a couple of factors that you didnt consider.
Wii:
- Supply constraints. I know they are stockpiling but we just dont know how many they will have for the holidays. IF* they can put more than 4.5 million units on the shelf then the other consoles will really hurt. I think what is going to happen is that if people dont see a Wii then they will buy a competitors consoles but if the Wii is there then the 360 and PS3 need to do something more drastic. My prediction is that they are going to have more than 4 million units ready just for Nov & Dec. Nintendo has played the market fairly well so far which tells me they have some good brains working for them somewhere.
360:
- Reliability problems and its horrendous public image. When reading about the 360 I cant help but notice that it has become the laughing stalk of the generation due to its reliability issues. It seems that everyone who has one, loves it but no one can, in good conscious, recommend it to any of their friends and family due to the fact they break down so frequently. Many are also at the point where they are simply fed up with the 360 and will never buy 1 again. I think people are underestimating the effects of "word of mouth." If MS can get the Falcon out soon and fix this image they will do better than expected due to their software lineup. My prediction is that the healing process will start this holiday season but it will take longer for word to get out to everyone. They will perform slightly better than you predicted.
- People who want Halo already have a system. I dont think it will sell nearly as many consoles as people think.
PS3:
- Serious managerial problems. Sony has internal issues that need to be addressed. They are in a very confused state where the right hand doesnt know what the left is doing. The result of the confusion is a catatonic state where it will become increasingly hard to make decisions unless out of despiration. They need to fire some people and bring on some intellectuals to help them weather the storm. My prediction is that they will continue to make uneducated (aka boneheaded) moves through these holidays followed by a huge head rolling bonanza after they fail to meet their own lopsided estimates once again. My prediction based on the level of intellegince ive seen so far; no price cut will come once the the 60gig sku is sold out and they still wont have a great software library.
Here are my predictions:
| Month End | 1-Sep | 6-Oct | 3-Nov | 1-Dec | 5-Jan |
| Month Length | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | 4 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks |
| Console | August | September | October | November | December |
| Wii | 430,000 | 440,000 | 430,000 | 1,100,000 | 2,600,000 |
| Xbox 360 | 280,000 | 360,000 | 400,000 | 600,000 | 1,500,000 |
| PS3 | 120,000 | 140,000 | 120,000 | 330,000 | 750,000 |
