Nintendo Wii - 3.75m units
Xbox 360 - 3.45m units
Playstation 3 - 1.7m units


Wii - Why so low/close? Supply, and lack of non-1st party titles and competition. I feel that Nintendo's going to have a difficult time pumping out enough units through the rest of the year for all 3 regions. Not only this, I feel/think that the X360 will still get another $50 drop (as rumored), and this will greatly help it out, while lowering Wii's overall sales in the US

Xbox 360 - August should start ramping up sales in the US, due to the price drop + good games. August last year started to see an increase for the X360. Halo3, Mass Effect and the JRPGs should help attract more customers, and broaden the X360 base.

Playstation 3 - at some point, the $500 PS3's will go away, leaving the still-expinsive $600 models. At this price, sales will plummet. I assume that they'll drop the price to $500 intime for Christmas. However, with no real unique games and a high pricepoint, consumers will flock to the Wii and X360 at a much better base.


Sales Per Month:

August:
Nintendo Wii: 375,000
Xbox 360: 250,000
Playstation 3: 200,000

September:
Xbox 360: 425,000
Nintendo Wii: 350,000
Playstation 3: 185,000

October:
Nintendo Wii 430,000
Xbox 360: 400,000
Playstation 3: 215,000

November:
Nintendo Wii: 750,000
Xbox 360: 725,000
Playstation 3: 350,000

December:
Xbox 360: 1,950,000
Nintendo Wii: 1,850,000
Playstation 3: 750,000


Also, just a note: for December, overall, sales could be a slight bit higher. However, 4.5m units of sales is nothing to balk at for the season.

Overall, it'll be real close in the US. In Japan, it'll be a total blowout (Wii by 2.5m under the same set of timeframe). Europe is a mystery. PS3 could manage a win if the price was decent, and there was a decent bit of software.

another great read, thank you theSource!

One thing that strikes me after reading this: I think this Christmas will be crucial about the Sony/Microsoft war. If Microsoft really is able to get the PS2 gamers that are not interested in the Wii now, Sony will be struggling to have a shot even at second place. But if 360 sales continue to decline and the price drop doesn't help (which I don't really expect, but still) it's quite sure for me that the PS3 will be ahead of the 360 at the end of this gen.

Stickball your Wii numbers add up to 3.755 million and your 360 numbers add up tp 3.750 million.

Did you subtract 250k out of the 360 numbers somewhere (250k+425k+400k+725k+1950k = 3750k)?

How can you say that supply AND other things will lower the Wii sales? If supply is a problem, it is the only problem because that means that demand is higher than supply. Am I missing something?

I think the Wii will be the "IT" item in America this Christmas. Knowing Americans love the hype and thinking Nintendo can provide more units gets me to a higher number.

Also I think you overestimates the X-Box and Halo 3 and underestimating the PS3 a bit.

Here's some ballpark numbers

Aug
360: 230K
PS3: 110K
Wii: 350K

Sept
360: 550K
PS3: 110K
Wii: 400K

Oct
360: 400K
PS3: 150K
Wii: 400K

Nov
360: 550K
PS3: 400K
Wii: 800K

Dec
360: 1200K
PS3: 850K
Wii: 1600K



Total
360: 2.93M
PS3: 1.62M
Wii: 3.55M

A couple numbers I've seen which are ridiculous...

December:
Xbox 360: 1,950,000

This is basically predicting the 360 to jump up to just one step below PS2-level sales totally out of the blue... 2 full months AFTER Halo 3's release, with a $300-350 price tag, and with no other killer apps... I don't buy it.

Ps2 1.2 [total]
This looks more like a December total to me. PS2 and 360 may be a good race from here on out, actually.

DS numbers would be interesting... 6 million? 7 million? It could well do 1.6M Nov/3.5M Dec or something.

 So that thing is never gonna die, id expect the whole newgen to be really pused hard this xmas.

All solid predictions.

I'm less bullish on the 360 (many Halo fans already have a 360, PS3 competes with it for sales, RRoD in minds) and more bullish on the PS3. Wii will depend entirely on manufacturing/stockpiling.

... 

My predictions:

Sales Per Month:

August:
Nintendo Wii: 450,000 (Metroid)
Xbox 360: 300,000 (assuming price drop)
Playstation 3: 100,000 (no more LAIR? Titles all shifted?)

September:
Nintendo Wii: 400,000 (supply limited)
Xbox 360: 300,000 (price drop wears off, offset by launch of Halo)
Playstation 3: 150,000 (new titles hit)

October:
Nintendo Wii 400,000 (supply limited)
Xbox 360: 350,000 (full month Halo + other titles)
Playstation 3: 160,000 (more titles hit)

November:
Nintendo Wii: 750,000 (heaps of extra supply + Galaxy)
Xbox 360: 500,000
Playstation 3: 400,000 (big pre-Xmas push)

December (about double Nov, plus extra Wii supply):
Nintendo Wii: 2,000,000
Xbox 360: 1,100,000
Playstation 3: 850,000

my totals aug-dec 31st:

Wii: 3.3m
This is due to supply constraints only. With all the hype and games being released (ssbb, galaxy etc) it could do 5m i think.

xbox 360: 2.2m
Not quite as strong as last year due to the competition. I dont think halo 3 will give as big a boost as The Source is expecting because i think most of the people already have an 360 who want this game. Also with weekly sales at around 35k at the moment i am loosing faith in the system a bit.

ps3: 2m
I anticipate the 80gb ps3 to get a price cut to $500 before christmas. Also with alot of games finally coming out and it doubles as a blu ray player i can see this easily getting close to the 360's sales for the rest of the year.

 You're predicting a massive jump for Halo 3 and quite frankly, it's never happened in the past with Halo 1 or Halo 2...

Games dont stimulate sales directly, from what I've ever seen. Price drops however, do.