After much thought, and a bunch of research on release dates and potential interest in games, I'm ready to predict what I think will happen in the USA/Americas from August-December.
Overall, I expect these sales of consoles in the USA (by NPD) - Vgc will be higher for all three:
Wii - 4,273,000 (compares favorably to PS2 2001 USA numbers - which were ~3.88 million from Aug-Dec - mainly because Wii is cheaper than PS2 was back then)
Xbox 360 - 3,125,000 (much stronger than Aug-Dec last year (~2.3 million), not as strong as it could have been with $100 pricedrop and GTA. Had a $100 pricedrop and GTA arrived, I think this could have been roughly 4 million)
PS3 - 1,775,000 (no real pricedrop, no GTA, a 2002 Gamecube like period - GC did ~ 1.55 million from Aug-Dec 2002)
Here is a more specific breakdown by month:
| Month End | 1-Sep | 6-Oct | 3-Nov | 1-Dec | 5-Jan |
| Month Length | 4 weeks | 5 weeks | 4 weeks | 4 weeks | 5 weeks |
| Console | August | September | October | November | December |
| Wii | 460,000 | 430,000 | 408,000 | 975,000 | 2,000,000 |
| Xbox 360 | 300,000 | 450,000 | 400,000 | 575,000 | 1,400,000 |
| PS3 | 110,000 | 140,000 | 150,000 | 380,000 | 870,000 |
With a small pricedrop for Xbox 360 in August, as well as Madden, Blue Dragon and others - I expect the console to do 300,000 units in August. I expect Nintendo to allocate more Wiis than usual for Metroid, Madden, and carry over from Mario Strikers (July 29) - leading to sales of 460k. PS3 in July did well over 125,000 units - however, with the cheap(er) 60 gig SKU disappearing and the introduction of the 80 gig SKU, I expect sales to decline from July - despite the release of Madden.
Moving on, September should see seasonal boosts starting to kick in. Halo 3 releases during the last week of September - so I have spread it's impact across two months - although the split could easily be 600k/250k or something. With September a 5 week month, Wii sales should decline on a weekly basis as few big titles release in September. PS3 sales should stay roughly flat as the new games (Warhawk, Lair) offset the predominance of the $600 PS3 again.
October is a very strong month for releases on all three platforms (even without GTA), so I expect PS3 and Wii to be boosted on a weekly basis, while 360 declines a bit as the insane week one and week two sales from Halo 3 wear off until November & December.
In November, I expect that 360 sales will grow - but not double on Madden, Guitar Hero III, Rockband, Halo 3, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Call of Duty 4, Assassin's Creed and a host of others. Normally, November sees sales 2x stronger than October across the board, but I think 360 will already be like 1.5x stronger than normal in October, so the increase will not be double this Oct-Nov. In contrast, Wii sales should more than double - as Super Mario Galaxy releases in November, as well as Nights, Soul Calibur Legends and Rayman Raving Rabbits. Other titles like Medal of Honor Heroes 2, Zack & Wiki, RE: UC, Battallion Wars II, Forever Blue, DDR, The Simpsons etc., should appeal to a wide range of audiences. PS3 sales should more than double as well, as Haze, Unreal Tournament 3, Rockband, Guitar Hero III, Madden, Assassin's Creed, Ratchet & Clank begin to make the $600 entry barrier (I expect the $500 sku to be all but gone at this point) seem well worth it.
Lastly, in December I think Wii is capable of moving 2,000,000 units - on the strength of three main things:
1) Price (if rumours are true, Wii is going to remain cheaper than even the core 360 unit)
2) Nintendo's strongest lineup ever (Metroid, Galaxy, Brawl, Fire Emblem, Forever Blue, Batallion Wars II, Wii Music (maybe), and the continuing backlog success of Super Paper Mario, Wii Play, Warioware, Zelda, Mario Party 8, Excite Truck, Pokemon Stadium, Mario Strikers, Big Brain Academy)
3) A broad 3rd party lineup which only needs to produce ~6 good titles over the last few months of 2007 (from a list of Zack & Wiki, The Simpsons Game, Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games, Soul Calibur Legends, Nights, Galaxy Wars, Trauma Center 2, Rayman Raving Rabbits 2, My Word Coach, Medal of Honor Heroes 2, Guitar Hero III, Blast Works: Build Fuse & Destroy, Space Station Tycoon, Madden, My Sims, Boogie, Resident Evil: UC, DDR, Dragon Blade) to support Galaxy, Metroid, and Brawl and Wii's backlog hits.
Xbox 360 should have a stronger December this year (1.4 million) vs. last year (1.1 million) on three factors:
1) Small Pricedrop (I think a $279 Core is very, very close to mass market for a console with so many games)
2) Halo 3
3) A lineup dedicated to winning over gamers who want the best shooting (Halo 3), sports (Madden), music (GHIII, Rockband), and online titles - which should help convince alot of current PS2 owners to 'jump in'.
PS3 should have a stronger December this year (.875 million) vs. last year (.490 million) on three factors:
1) Although it doesn't have any indivudal killer apps like Wii or 360 (Galaxy, Halo 3), PS3 has a number of titles releasing which had millions of followers from the PS2 era (Ratchet & Clank, Madden).
2) The price of a console falls by the way side as a limiting factor in December. Additionally, once the software value of PS3 games is percieved to be greater than the $600 entry cost, more people will make the plunge. That means PS3 needs 10 games people really want - and it will have them by December 2007.
3) The PS3 lineup is now well positioned to compete in the same demographic Xbox 360 is dabbing in.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
