First of all, I don't think the impact of Halo will last beyond October. Halo 2 is different because there was already a Halo game on the system, but these numbers are still relevant:
Novembers/December NPD (USA only)
2002\2003\2004 (with Halo 2 impact)\2006 360 #s
468K / 1033K \ 490K / 1122K \ 708K / 1044K \ 511K / 1100K
As you can see, the impact of Halo 2 did not even last into December! (Also note how similar 2003's XBox and 2006's 360 are.) I think the impact of Halo will be gone by November, and depending on how the sales get split, Sept/Oct could be nearly as big as November, with December falling around 1.2M.
I also think you're overestimating the impact of price cut + Madden in August. 300K is too high.
So I'd slice maybe 200-300K off the 360's numbers. Still much stronger than last year!
For Wii, you may be overestimating what Nintendo can supply. Sony had longer to ramp up production for a giant WW holiday in 2001, having launched in Japan so much earlier.
Love the PS3 numbers.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
