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Forums - Sales - The 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror

Fumanchu said:
amirnetz said:
Fumanchu said:
360 adds:

Huxley
Dead Island
You're In the Movies
The Tale of Despereaux

Thanks. "You're in the movies" is published by Microsoft so it is out. The rest gets in.

 

Not codemasters??

http://au.xbox360.ign.com/articles/930/930443p1.html

 

Apparently not.

http://reviews.teamxbox.com/xbox-360/1626/Youre-in-the-Movies/p1/

I saw it as Microsoft in another place as well.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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So you think Japan will only make up 7% of worldwide PS3 sales when FF XIII is released?



360
Raven Squad: Hidden Dagger - SouthPeak Interactive
Stoked - Destineer
Velvet Assassin - Gamecock
Indianapolis 500 Evolution - Destineer
Brave: A Warrior's Tale - SouthPeak Interactive

PS3
Brain Challenge Deluxe - Ubisoft
The Godfather II - Electronic Arts

These are the ones up until the end of February taken from the VGChartz release date list.



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BKK2 said:
So you think Japan will only make up 7% of worldwide PS3 sales when FF XIII is released?

I hope for Sony that this would still be the case. If it is much more then it means the PS3 is really doing badly in the rest of the world...

More seriously though. A couple of weeks spike because a new title release will not change the effect of Japan on the global gaming picture. With 5% share of the Wii sales (38K/784K), 7% share of the PS3 sales and 3% of the 360 sales Japan is simply too small of a market to affect anyhting globally. Do the math - It is currently about 4% of the global market for for consoles (including the Wii). It seems like Japan just doesn't show a lot of passion for consoles. Any console.

Even if the PS3 sales doubles and stayed doubled for a while Japan would still be a minor fraction of the world demand (it will move to 6% from the current 4%). Still insignificant in the grand picture.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Tailgunner said:
360
Raven Squad: Hidden Dagger - SouthPeak Interactive
Stoked - Destineer
Velvet Assassin - Gamecock
Indianapolis 500 Evolution - Destineer
Brave: A Warrior's Tale - SouthPeak Interactive

PS3
Brain Challenge Deluxe - Ubisoft
The Godfather II - Electronic Arts

These are the ones up until the end of February taken from the VGChartz release date list.

Awesome. Thanks. I will verify and update the list in a few minutes.

Update : All 360 titles verified and included. Brain Challenge is disqualified as it being a minor title ($30 retail) and the Godfather II is also on the 360. So both are out.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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Current list stands on: 

360 3rd Party Exclusives:

  1. Start Ocean 4
  2. The Last Remnant
  3. Kill All Humans
  4. Left 4 Dead
  5. C&C Red Alert
  6. Splinter cell conviction.
  7. Huxley
  8. Dead Island
  9. The Tales of Despereaux
  10. Raven Squad: Hidden Dagger
  11. Stocked
  12. Velvet Assassin
  13. Indianapolis 500 Evolution
  14. Brave: A Warrior's Tale

PS3 3rd Party Exclsuive:

  1. Valkyria Chronicals
  2. FF XIII VS.
  3. Quantom Theory
  4. Yakuza 3
  5. Disgaea 3 (PAL only)

Thank you Tailgunner for the updates.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

I'm not sure I understand why 3rd party support to make a console successful requires the titles to be exclusive. Perhaps I missed a post.



It's freaking hilarious that this guy isn't counting a Japanese exclusive (which will sell more than everything else on the 360 list just in Japan) but is counting Destroy All Humans and Disgaea 3.



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crumas2 said:
I'm not sure I understand why 3rd party support to make a console successful requires the titles to be exclusive. Perhaps I missed a post.

Excellent question and a good source of confusion.

The question is not really which platform has more exclusives, but which platform is denied titles. Another way to rephrase it is: "Our goal is not to determine a winner, but to identify a loser".

An exclusivity for one of the HD consoles means that the other one does not get the title. If this denial happens often enough to the same platform it will start to become apparent in the marketplace that "that platform doesn't get many of the titles that are out there".

When such a perception is propagated in the market, then "that platform with the fewer titles" becomes a risky purchase to new buyers because the buyers will lack the confidence that all of the future titles will be available on the console. This lack of confidence will cause changes in buying decisions and the platform with the fewer titles will lose share. This lose of share in turn will accelerate the 3rd parties decision to drop support for the platform. And this vicious cycle is called "the death spiral". 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

outlawauron said:
It's freaking hilarious that this guy isn't counting a Japanese exclusive (which will sell more than everything else on the 360 list just in Japan) but is counting Destroy All Humans and Disgaea 3.

Hey - let's try to keep it civilized. "That guy" is me. And I am dead serious about this. Nothing hilarious here. In the future when I am joking, I will let you know where the funny places are.

Now, even though you were rude, I will still provide you with a serious answer to the point. I hope in the future you will return in same.

This thread is not about the quality of the titles or their sales figures. We are looking only at pure count of titles. I understand why you may find it strange, so let me explain that decision.

The goal is not to determine which titles will sell the most. The goal is to to figure out if one of the console may be at risk of getting the perception of the "console that only gets some of the titles". One or two titles will not change anything in the equation.

But if one of the consoles gets, week after week, more titles than the other console, then such a perception starts to form. Regardless if the titles are good or bad, big or small, of one genre or another – the sheer number of the exclusive titles will start taking a fatal toll on the “losing platform”. And this is what we are measuring here.

When you look at it like this you may understand that one title, as big as it may be, does not change anything in this dynamic.

Separately, I have answered already in details why Japan is insignificant in the global picture. Since Japan currently has only 4% of the global console HW market sales, any local events there have virtually no effect on the overall picture. See my answers to BKK2 on the topic.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3