We've already hit the point of no return. The PS3 is running out of time and just about everytime a consumer buys a Wii or 360 that's one less potential consumer for Sony. Hopefully after the holidays we can put the the HD war to rest.

If you mean what is likely, then I would say that unless MS/2nd-Parties do something incredibly foolish or Sony/2nd-Parties do something incredibly amazing, I doubt the positions will change this generation.

But "it isn't over 'til it's over," so I can't believe any event other than the advent of the next generation will be finalizing.

Thus far with five total votes that fulfill the criteria set down the margin of difference for the 360 clinching a victory over the PS3 is 8.5 million units. While for the PS3 to clinch a victory over the 360 is 3 million units. Please continue voting. Five total votes is hardly definitive.

The problem with coming up with an absolute number is that we lack certain key data to come up with it. The most significant piece missing is the eventual lifespan of the systems on the market. And even with that, we still lack the critical data of what tactics the companies will employ to steal the limelight from each other. To wit: the PS3 and 360 have traded sides in being the "dominant" second place runner up 3 times this year, each time due to a slight adjustment in tactics (price drop, carefully timed release of a popular game, new SKU released, etc.).

Without such key data, the best we can do is state which is currently "leading" as second place, and possibly speculate vaguely on who will ultimately hold the title. The odds clearly favor Microsoft at the moment, but they were clearly favoring Sony 3 months ago. And they could just as easily be favoring Sony again 3 months from now.

Good question, I think it's more of a case of how much of a sales gap is needed to withstand the PS3's price drop next year...as it's unlikely that they'll reach a 9 million 'point of no return' before Sony drops the price next year. It's also looking like the price drops aren't going to occur in tandem and more like every opposite year - of course I'm speculating but Microsoft has said that Europe won't get another price drop for a long time. A long time could be a year in such a competitive market and should their lead diminish or be in jeopardy they'll undoubtedly be forced to drop the price further, being that they've been so aggressive in keeping Sony at bay.

With the 360 now really taking off in sales we'll see what impact a PS3 price drop will have - is it a given that they'll start beating it in weekly sales again? 50% of 360 sales this holiday have apparently been the $199 Arcade...

The Wii has been eating into the PS2 userbase since it was released, now the 360 is doing the same. By the time the PS3 is at a mass level price appeal will it matter?

right, the PS3 is currently over 6million outsold by the 360. the 360 also has a considerable lead over it in weekly sales going into the christmas season.

I believe that the Sony will not be able to mount an affective marketing campaign, release enough AAA games, or drop its price to a level that will be competitive enough to surmount that 6 million lead.

it simply cannot drag enough market share from Microsoft.

Putting a number on it is difficult, but i believe if MS can generate a lead of 7 million within the next 6 months, they will have cemented their place as the second place console of this generation.

The hard part about guessing here is that this generation has more potential to last longer than the last gen. Sure the 360 has a sizable lead now, but this race will end up more like a marathon if sony stays true to its 10 year lifecycle.

That said, I think that if the 360 gets a 8 mil lead before the next Ps3 price cut, it will have 2nd place locked up.

::editted::

good post. the point about the length of this generation is a good one. it may go on much longer and inconsistantly (ie. I think the lifespan of the PS3 will be longer) which will make it interesting.

but a hero is only defined by the greatness of its nemesis (Batman would be rubbish taking on Barry the car stereo theif) so do we define the end of the generation as the point at which the last surviving console closes, or when the first leaves?

Even if the PS3 can do a price cut (in March as rumoured) i don't think they can drop it to become a real competitor to the Xbox price.

Yeah, I don't think they could lower it too much below $300 or any where near the Arcade price (unless they release a new SKU), but consumers still could start seeing it as a more value worthy purchase at that point.

Haha, and yeah, your hero analogy is apt in terms of defining fan following, but it terms of defining long term profitability it could be in sony's favor.  One scenario where this could happen is M$oft investing millions upon millions on R&D of getting their next-gen system on the market first again, while at the same time the PS3 hits mass market price and Blu-Ray overtakes DVD as the most popular movie format.  Sure gamers will eat up the x720 and play it to its full potential, but the PS3 will be where the real cash is at.