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amirnetz on 23 November 2008
Mistershine said:
MS need to have at least a DVD drive to allow you to play 360 games on the next console.

...Unless they can steam down the game to your machine's HDD, which is what being proposed.

So the DVD is optional (costs a little extra), but eventually the physical mobile media might just go away once digital distribution takes hold.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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Munkeh111 on 23 November 2008
Mistershine said:
Munkeh111 said:
Mistershine said:
MS need to have at least a DVD drive to allow you to play 360 games on the next console.

@Munkeh
320gb 2.5" HDDs cost £40 trade at the moment, so in a few years they should be very cheap indeed, esp as MS will buy millions at a time.

Really, I thought they were far more expenisve....

 

 No, which makes it even more annoying that I can't just chuck one in my 360.

Indeed, the install feature is very useful, its so nice not having the aircraft running!



amirnetz on 23 November 2008
Fumanchu said:

The problem with that is not everyone has high speed broadband Internet and downloading games above 10gigs would put alot of plans at risk of exceeding monthly download usage.  This also puts your proposed 40GB SDD drive under much stress as the OS plus 2 games could maxed it out.  They then would have to include the HDD standard with all models and that negates the price of including an optical drive + some.  In America it probably wouldn't do so bad, but they're WW devices and alot of countries don't have great ISP plans.

 

These are better points, but all are addressable:

  1. HD streaming (15 Mbs+) is viable in significant parts of the US and in most of western Europe even today. When the new Xbox will come out 80% of the target markets will have it available. So adding a BR player to the next HD makes no sense to Microsoft - it inflates the cost structure with very little return.
  2. The limited storage space can be handled in multiple ways - on demand streaming from Live (i.e your games are stored on Live and the local 40GB is just a cache). So you'll "never run out of space".
  3. Similarly - you can use a networked local PC HDD as an additional cache to minimize the need for on-line communications. A 1TB PC disk is available today for less than $150. Imagine 1TB disks for $50 when the next gen is released.
  4. Lastly - you can just buy more flash capacity from Microsoft, and if you really want to - buy a BR drive accessory. All for more $$$ for Microsoft.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

halogamer1989 on 23 November 2008
amirnetz said:
halogamer1989 said:

The problem with this is Sega already tried it with Genesis and you see where that got them. Innovation must be revolutionary, not evolutionary in a capitalist competition. They will not allow for cross platform storage to PC as this encourages piracy. I could see cloud storage on MS servers, however.

The new console is already in talks to have future compatibility but it will not reduce appearance due to new tech, it will enhance the existing game library, ie draw distances, new additions.

Any console or PC includes a fan--it is how you cool a build. Unless MS creates nanobot cooling on the mobo, expect a fan-based system.

 

Blue: Agree, this is why I am proposing that the innovation must not from more graphical power (evolution) but from different and more radical experiences (revolusion).

Black: Not true. You can store 99% of the info on the PC and have the last 1% stay local to the 360. The 99% is useless without the last 1% so no piracy. Also, with on-line only distribution the whole notion of piracy kind of goes away.

Green: Not true. It really depends on the frequencies and the micro-architecture. The iPhone does not have a fan although it is as capable as the original Xbox in terms of computing power. A 32 nm processor will run much cooler than a 90nm processor.

The hacking comm. would get the data in days from the cache PC storage.  Also, the iPhone is not a console. Equal capabilies are given but they are different types of systems.  Even the slim PS2 has a fan and due to compactness it overheats.  MS consoles are PC's in boxes and the Larambee architecture of the 720 will require a fan (yes they are looking at this).

 



Fumanchu on 23 November 2008

In 2011-12 the price of high-speed blu-ray drives at wholesale wouldn't be a huge expense...but if they didn't want to include that and just go for DVD again I think it would mean having a HDD standard so devs can have an install disc as you can compress a whole lot more.



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amirnetz on 23 November 2008
halogamer1989 said:
amirnetz said:

lue: Agree, this is why I am proposing that the innovation must not from more graphical power (evolution) but from different and more radical experiences (revolusion).

Black: Not true. You can store 99% of the info on the PC and have the last 1% stay local to the 360. The 99% is useless without the last 1% so no piracy. Also, with on-line only distribution the whole notion of piracy kind of goes away.

Green: Not true. It really depends on the frequencies and the micro-architecture. The iPhone does not have a fan although it is as capable as the original Xbox in terms of computing power. A 32 nm processor will run much cooler than a 90nm processor.

The hacking comm. would get the data in days from the cache PC storage.  Also, the iPhone is not a console. Equal capabilies are given but they are different types of systems.  Even the slim PS2 has a fan and due to compactness it overheats.  MS consoles are PC's in boxes and the Larambee architecture of the 720 will require a fan (yes they are looking at this).

 

The hackers can get the data from the PC in seconds. It will be there for them to take, unprotected. But if every 100th byte is missing then it is useless. Keep 1% on the console (protected) and 99% on the PC.

Reagrding the fan - the iPhone is a computer, make no mistake about it. It is very powerful - can run Halo 1 even. But you know what? The whole fan question is not very important - as long as the machine is dead quiet. Can we agree to that?

 

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

amirnetz on 23 November 2008
Fumanchu said:
In 2011-12 the price of high-speed blu-ray drives at wholesale wouldn't be a huge expense...but if they didn't want to include that and just go for DVD again I think it would mean having a HDD standard so devs can have an install disc as you can compress a whole lot more.

Microsoft would rather have no DVD and no BR. Everything should be done through digital distribution and therefore the size limitations are becoming mute. Developers should feel to make the game as large as they want.

This makes tons of sense for Microsoft - It lower the machine cost, take away the moving parts that are prone to malefunction and transform the whole business model to be based on regular subscriptions to the Xbox Live service for connectivity, content and games.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Fumanchu on 23 November 2008

Sure I don't doubt that's the direction Microsoft wants to take, it makes sense to them for all of your aforementioned reasons. However, I still don't think WW the infrastructure will be there to support it, it's too reliant on your Internet connection in the ways you're suggesting - streaming games to cache, if your Internet goes down for whatever reason be it maintenance or router/modem dies or your speed is capped you can't even play games you've purchased...I would be incredibly frustrated.

On a side note; should all the games consoles adopt this method what happens the game retailers...ouch!



amirnetz on 23 November 2008
Fumanchu said:
Sure I don't doubt that's the direction Microsoft wants to take, it makes sense to them for all of your aforementioned reasons. However, I still don't think WW the infrastructure will be there to support it, it's too reliant on your Internet connection in the ways you're suggesting - streaming games to cache, if your Internet goes down for whatever reason be it maintenance or router/modem dies or your speed is capped you can't even play games you've purchased...I would be incredibly frustrated.

On a side note; should all the games consoles adopt this method what happens the game retailers...ouch!

Good, we are almost in agreement...

By the time the next gen is released, the majority of the market will have proper connectivity. for those who don't have it, there will be the ability to add more storage either on the xbox (additional HDD) or on a local networked PC. Games that are cached locally can be played also off-line. For the other games you'll need conectivity. Just like you need connectibity to watch cable TV or surf the internet. This is not a new paradigm and people are OK with it.

As for the game retailers... they are heading towards the same fate as the DVD rental stores and CD retailers are headed... to the trash bin of history. With digital distribution you just don't need these physical facilities.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Fumanchu on 23 November 2008

I'm fine with that as long as ISP plans react accordingly...atm I'm on a 60gig monthly plan which is considered 'unlimited' here in Australia, if a MGS4 sized game comes out I could only download the one game for the month regardless if i've got more money to spend and this is something that could hurt Microsoft's attachment rates, hopefully this will change in the next 3-4 years but if the last 3-4 years are anything to go by...