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Forums - Sony Discussion - Will PS3 have a successful year in 2009?

ctk495 on 22 November 2008

Yes kingdom hearts 3 is going to be announce.



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Deneidez on 22 November 2008
amirnetz said:

You have some valid points, but there are some important differences to the Xbox situation. Development budgets are higher now so they need all the potential userbase they can get, and this time the 360 didn't get a huge head start in installed base, so developers got used to targeting both.

That said, if/when third parties start to take the Wii seriously, PS3 and 360 could lose some more games.

Disagree. With the economics the way they are, the appetite of the studios for large risky investments will go down. There will always be the big productions. But expect also to see the low-budgeted releases, and increasingly so. Few can afford to risk $50M-$100M on a big production title. The is very little capital left to go around for such risks. It is much easier to get the investments and returns from the good $5M-$10M titles.

Regarding the Wii - noone by Ninty was able to really crack the formula on how to make people buy games for it. The studios are trying for years to figure it out but the top selling titles for the Wii are always the first parties. There is no doubt the Wii market and audiance is very different than the PS3 and the 360. This almost is why the forums almost ignore the Wii though unit-wise it is killing.

I think third parties should start taking wii seriously. Currently whole game industry is in trouble and making big risks isn't the way to make profit. Yes, I mean HD games. Development costs have raised way too much. Sony & MS really aren't helping with hardware that is alien to PC code, which you could use with ease to make games with much less.

According to study by EEDAR only 4% of games make profit ever. Makes you think is the whole industry doomed, doesn't it?

Source: http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/21/games-eedar-developers-tech-ebiz-cx_mji_1121eedar.html?partner=yahootix



New crap available on mi pages!

Cypher1980 on 22 November 2008
amirnetz said:
Hawkeye said:
amirnetz said:

NJ5 is right. Forget about a price for the next 11-12 months. Sony just cannot sacrifice the whole company for the success of one product.

And Snake612 - you are also right - without a price cut, the future Sony is bleak. Their momentum in the market will grind to a halt. They will become the official 3rd place finisher, their retail display sheves will be much smaller than the Wii and the 360, and the gaming community will consolidate around the other consoles. They will be in worst shape than the GC was - they don't even appeal to the kiddy audiance. The PS3 has no population segement that it really owns. All it has left is an eroding brand name.

All the new games will not help Sony with such a small installed base. They will not be able to recover their development costs with such a low attach rate for their first party games. They'll need to start closing down the studios to cut costs.

By the time they get to a feasible price cut, the battle had been decided. The Wii and 360 will have pulled away to far margin. 3rd parties will start omitting Sony from their platform support. They will be in a slow death sprial.

It is hard to see how 2009 is going to be a "successful year" for Sony.

In 2007 I thought that PS3 might become the next Sega Saturn. It seems to have pulled itself out of that rut, but it may slip bacvk into it. However, PS3 can piggyback of 360 games that are multiplat, and is laready somehwat sucessful, so I don't think PS3 is going to "grind to a halt" It may come in 3rd, but it won't out and out die.

 

The only way the PS3 will die is for Sony to stop producing it. I know it seems far fetched right now but if the PS3 does not get to profitability within 12 months then I think discontinuation will become a relevant question.

Sony is going to lose $1 Billion this year on the PS3. This is a huge amount for the company that has barely squeezed $20M in profits last quarter and is actually having a negative cash flow.

Sony cannot sacrifice the whole company for one product. The PS3 business either become profitable in the next year or they will need to start shutting down operations.

 

If Sony shut down production of the PS3 before 2016 then they will have failed to keep to their 10 year promise for the console.

It will almost certainly mean Sony will be forced to exit the Video game market as people will not feel able to trust them.

I just cannot see it happening. Sony fans are some of the most loyal in the world. Second only to Apple devotees in my opinion.

However even they will reach a breaking point if they are betrayed in this way.

 

 



NJ5 on 22 November 2008
Cypher1980 said:

If Sony shut down production of the PS3 before 2016 then they will have failed to keep to their 10 year promise for the console.

It will almost certainly mean Sony will be forced to exit the Video game market as people will not feel able to trust them.

I just cannot see it happening. Sony fans are some of the most loyal in the world. Second only to Apple devotees in my opinion.

However even they will reach a breaking point if they are betrayed in this way.

 

 

If Sony fans are so loyal, there mustn't be many of them. Either that or they're all broke and saving money to buy a PS3.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

sepisfu on 22 November 2008

Price cuts coming in March
Source: http://www.dpadmagazine.com/2008/11/22/huge-sony-info-blowout/



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Luney Tune on 22 November 2008

NJ5 said:

@amirnetz: I don't think 3rd parties will be ignoring Sony, their userbase is still big enough to make it worth it to port games.

 

Sega Saturn, N64, Dreamcast, Gamecube, Xbox. They all had a 10 million+ worldwide userbase, and they all had games that were million sellers. Yet when it became clear to third party developers that these consoles would never come anywhere close to selling as well as the #1 system, third party support dried up almost overnight.

I think it all boils down to retailers, especially the big chains. As long as they believe the PS3 has a future and continue to promote the console, third parties will continue their support for it. But if retailers begin to loose faith in the PS3, third party support *will* dry up fast.



SaviorX on 22 November 2008
Luney Tune said:

NJ5 said:

@amirnetz: I don't think 3rd parties will be ignoring Sony, their userbase is still big enough to make it worth it to port games.

 

Sega Saturn, N64, Dreamcast, Gamecube, Xbox. They all had a 10 million+ worldwide userbase, and they all had games that were million sellers. Yet when it became clear to third party developers that these consoles would never come anywhere close to selling as well as the #1 system, third party support dried up almost overnight.

I think it all boils down to retailers, especially the big chains. As long as they believe the PS3 has a future and continue to promote the console, third parties will continue their support for it. But if retailers begin to loose faith in the PS3, third party support *will* dry up fast.

Well, the fact that multiplatform games can be on the 360 as well as the PS3 may delay that from happening.

 



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

amirnetz on 22 November 2008
Cypher1980 said:
amirnetz said:

The only way the PS3 will die is for Sony to stop producing it. I know it seems far fetched right now but if the PS3 does not get to profitability within 12 months then I think discontinuation will become a relevant question.

Sony is going to lose $1 Billion this year on the PS3. This is a huge amount for the company that has barely squeezed $20M in profits last quarter and is actually having a negative cash flow.

Sony cannot sacrifice the whole company for one product. The PS3 business either become profitable in the next year or they will need to start shutting down operations.

 

If Sony shut down production of the PS3 before 2016 then they will have failed to keep to their 10 year promise for the console.

It will almost certainly mean Sony will be forced to exit the Video game market as people will not feel able to trust them.

I just cannot see it happening. Sony fans are some of the most loyal in the world. Second only to Apple devotees in my opinion.

However even they will reach a breaking point if they are betrayed in this way. 

If you think that the shareholders of Sony care so much about the public bragging of the PR guys so they are willing to pay billions just to stand behind these lame promises then you are sadly mistaken.

This is business. And in business Sony will do what is write for Sony. If it means disappointing their loyal audiance in order to make several billions more then so be it. Yes, they will take into account the cost of breaking the promise. And don't get me wrong. It is going to be costly - perhaps to the degree that they will not even attempt to produce a PS4.

But it will be an option that they'll have to consider for the benefit of the sharehoilders. Sony cannot survive by being boneheads.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Luney Tune on 22 November 2008

SaviorX said:

Well, the fact that multiplatform games can be on the 360 as well as the PS3 may delay that from happening.

Not really. Low dev costs doesn't help if retailers won't stock (and more importantly promote) your games.

Sony's biggest challenge in the future, will be persuading the big retail chains that it's still worth it to sell and strongly promote the PS3 even if it's in third place. So far it's been worth it to retailers mainly because the PS3 is the best value for money Blu-ray player on the market.

But I wonder what is going to happen to the PS3 once China starts flooding the market with cheap $50 stand-alone Blu-ray players.



Jo21 on 22 November 2008

FF13 is exclusive in japan where it's going to be released in 2009.