amirnetz said:
Hawkeye said:
amirnetz said:
NJ5 is right. Forget about a price for the next 11-12 months. Sony just cannot sacrifice the whole company for the success of one product.
And Snake612 - you are also right - without a price cut, the future Sony is bleak. Their momentum in the market will grind to a halt. They will become the official 3rd place finisher, their retail display sheves will be much smaller than the Wii and the 360, and the gaming community will consolidate around the other consoles. They will be in worst shape than the GC was - they don't even appeal to the kiddy audiance. The PS3 has no population segement that it really owns. All it has left is an eroding brand name.
All the new games will not help Sony with such a small installed base. They will not be able to recover their development costs with such a low attach rate for their first party games. They'll need to start closing down the studios to cut costs.
By the time they get to a feasible price cut, the battle had been decided. The Wii and 360 will have pulled away to far margin. 3rd parties will start omitting Sony from their platform support. They will be in a slow death sprial.
It is hard to see how 2009 is going to be a "successful year" for Sony.
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In 2007 I thought that PS3 might become the next Sega Saturn. It seems to have pulled itself out of that rut, but it may slip bacvk into it. However, PS3 can piggyback of 360 games that are multiplat, and is laready somehwat sucessful, so I don't think PS3 is going to "grind to a halt" It may come in 3rd, but it won't out and out die.
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The only way the PS3 will die is for Sony to stop producing it. I know it seems far fetched right now but if the PS3 does not get to profitability within 12 months then I think discontinuation will become a relevant question.
Sony is going to lose $1 Billion this year on the PS3. This is a huge amount for the company that has barely squeezed $20M in profits last quarter and is actually having a negative cash flow.
Sony cannot sacrifice the whole company for one product. The PS3 business either become profitable in the next year or they will need to start shutting down operations.
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If Sony shut down production of the PS3 before 2016 then they will have failed to keep to their 10 year promise for the console.
It will almost certainly mean Sony will be forced to exit the Video game market as people will not feel able to trust them.
I just cannot see it happening. Sony fans are some of the most loyal in the world. Second only to Apple devotees in my opinion.
However even they will reach a breaking point if they are betrayed in this way.
