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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is there a chance the PS3 WON'T hit 20m this year?

Hyruken on 22 November 2008

If you think about it from a pure statistical sense it would be VERY VERY unlikely the PS3 will make 20m by the end of this year.

As mentioned it has 6 weeks to do it. If you look at the sales of the previous 6 weeks the PS3 sold 1.18m units. Which means to reach 20m it has to shift 3.11m units in 6 weeks. Which is at bare minimum 520k sales a week. To put that into perspective would mean the PS3 would have to increase sales from 200k a week to 520k. An increase of 320k or 150% a week.

Now a wierd statistic is that for the same period last year the PS3 also sold 1.18m units. In the last 6 weeks of 2007 it went on to sell 2.9m units. So if Sony have a bit of history repeating they will be very close to if not being 20m only a few hundred k away from it.

However it's sales have now started to dip quite sharply and if it sticks with it's current projection of 200k a week it will sell at very best 1.2m. I dont live in US but i would guess black friday would give us a very good indication of what type of holiday the PS3 will have. For it to stand a chance of compeating it must at least match it's black friday week sales of last year which was 730k. Anything less then that and statistically it will struggle to beat it.



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Max King of the Wild on 22 November 2008
Hyruken said:
If you think about it from a pure statistical sense it would be VERY VERY unlikely the PS3 will make 20m by the end of this year.

As mentioned it has 6 weeks to do it. If you look at the sales of the previous 6 weeks the PS3 sold 1.18m units. Which means to reach 20m it has to shift 3.11m units in 6 weeks. Which is at bare minimum 520k sales a week. To put that into perspective would mean the PS3 would have to increase sales from 200k a week to 520k. An increase of 320k or 150% a week.

Now a wierd statistic is that for the same period last year the PS3 also sold 1.18m units. In the last 6 weeks of 2007 it went on to sell 2.9m units. So if Sony have a bit of history repeating they will be very close to if not being 20m only a few hundred k away from it.

However it's sales have now started to dip quite sharply and if it sticks with it's current projection of 200k a week it will sell at very best 1.2m. I dont live in US but i would guess black friday would give us a very good indication of what type of holiday the PS3 will have. For it to stand a chance of compeating it must at least match it's black friday week sales of last year which was 730k. Anything less then that and statistically it will struggle to beat it.

 

 Now change your numbers to fit 7 weeks because we haven't gotten the data in from the week that ended today yet.

Woah woah woah woah... Ps3 never sold 730k last year...



Darth Tigris on 22 November 2008
Hyruken said:
If you think about it from a pure statistical sense it would be VERY VERY unlikely the PS3 will make 20m by the end of this year.

As mentioned it has 6 weeks to do it. If you look at the sales of the previous 6 weeks the PS3 sold 1.18m units. Which means to reach 20m it has to shift 3.11m units in 6 weeks. Which is at bare minimum 520k sales a week. To put that into perspective would mean the PS3 would have to increase sales from 200k a week to 520k. An increase of 320k or 150% a week.

Now a wierd statistic is that for the same period last year the PS3 also sold 1.18m units. In the last 6 weeks of 2007 it went on to sell 2.9m units. So if Sony have a bit of history repeating they will be very close to if not being 20m only a few hundred k away from it.

However it's sales have now started to dip quite sharply and if it sticks with it's current projection of 200k a week it will sell at very best 1.2m. I dont live in US but i would guess black friday would give us a very good indication of what type of holiday the PS3 will have. For it to stand a chance of compeating it must at least match it's black friday week sales of last year which was 730k. Anything less then that and statistically it will struggle to beat it.

So how did the PS3 do in the weeks leading UP to that CRAZY amount it sold on the week of Black Friday?  That could be a very good barometer of how it COULD do this year when we compare the 2008 weeks leading up to BF.

 



Max King of the Wild on 22 November 2008
Darth Tigris said:
Hyruken said:
If you think about it from a pure statistical sense it would be VERY VERY unlikely the PS3 will make 20m by the end of this year.

As mentioned it has 6 weeks to do it. If you look at the sales of the previous 6 weeks the PS3 sold 1.18m units. Which means to reach 20m it has to shift 3.11m units in 6 weeks. Which is at bare minimum 520k sales a week. To put that into perspective would mean the PS3 would have to increase sales from 200k a week to 520k. An increase of 320k or 150% a week.

Now a wierd statistic is that for the same period last year the PS3 also sold 1.18m units. In the last 6 weeks of 2007 it went on to sell 2.9m units. So if Sony have a bit of history repeating they will be very close to if not being 20m only a few hundred k away from it.

However it's sales have now started to dip quite sharply and if it sticks with it's current projection of 200k a week it will sell at very best 1.2m. I dont live in US but i would guess black friday would give us a very good indication of what type of holiday the PS3 will have. For it to stand a chance of compeating it must at least match it's black friday week sales of last year which was 730k. Anything less then that and statistically it will struggle to beat it.

So how did the PS3 do in the weeks leading UP to that CRAZY amount it sold on the week of Black Friday?  That could be a very good barometer of how it COULD do this year when we compare the 2008 weeks leading up to BF.

 

Ps3 only sold 350k last year on black friday week. And if you want to know how it did before that take a look on the last page I posted all this info.

 



DMeisterJ on 22 November 2008

This is so depressing.

How is it trending over last year?

I think it can do at least 20.



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Max King of the Wild on 22 November 2008
DMeisterJ said:
This is so depressing.

How is it trending over last year?

I think it can do at least 20.

 

 I posted all this info already not too long ago either!!!!!!!!!!



DMeisterJ on 22 November 2008

@ max

It's trending lower on the previous three weeks though.

Depends on BF.

If it's higher, then yes, if it doesn't pass 300k, then no.



Max King of the Wild on 22 November 2008
DMeisterJ said:
@ max

It's trending lower on the previous three weeks though.

Depends on BF.

If it's higher, then yes, if it doesn't pass 300k, then no.

 

 Its mostly because of Japan that its lower. It's about 50k lower than last year and Japan is at 30k lower than last year by itself. (and the other 20k is from US Europe is right on track from last year)



S.T.A.G.E. on 22 November 2008

You guys want too much out of Sony. The sales that the PS3 is getting is great.



Hyruken on 22 November 2008
Max King of the Wild said:
Hyruken said:
If you think about it from a pure statistical sense it would be VERY VERY unlikely the PS3 will make 20m by the end of this year.

As mentioned it has 6 weeks to do it. If you look at the sales of the previous 6 weeks the PS3 sold 1.18m units. Which means to reach 20m it has to shift 3.11m units in 6 weeks. Which is at bare minimum 520k sales a week. To put that into perspective would mean the PS3 would have to increase sales from 200k a week to 520k. An increase of 320k or 150% a week.

Now a wierd statistic is that for the same period last year the PS3 also sold 1.18m units. In the last 6 weeks of 2007 it went on to sell 2.9m units. So if Sony have a bit of history repeating they will be very close to if not being 20m only a few hundred k away from it.

However it's sales have now started to dip quite sharply and if it sticks with it's current projection of 200k a week it will sell at very best 1.2m. I dont live in US but i would guess black friday would give us a very good indication of what type of holiday the PS3 will have. For it to stand a chance of compeating it must at least match it's black friday week sales of last year which was 730k. Anything less then that and statistically it will struggle to beat it.

 

 Now change your numbers to fit 7 weeks because we haven't gotten the data in from the week that ended today yet.

Woah woah woah woah... Ps3 never sold 730k last year...

 

 From 15th of november to 31st of december is 46 days = 6 weeks and 4 days (well 3 days now). Meaning it is not 7 weeks.

Secondly the figures are worldwide figures, i thought that was pretty obvious? If were talking the PS3 getting 20m in NA on it's own then your have a very long wait....

So the figures for "BLACK FRIDAY WEEK" last year were 600k if you go from 17th nov to 24th nov. Or 720k if you go 24th nov to 1st dec 2007. Either way the ratios make zero difference at all. Right now the PS3 is at 75k a week in NA. It will need to match 300k in NA and 300k in the rest of the world in that week to stand a chance of getting to 20m.