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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii Unlimited...What If?

HappySqurriel on 01 August 2007
Legend11 said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Legend11 said:

One million the first week then it starts to plummit fast as the lemming effect of getting something hard to get wears off. There's no way Nintendo is actually going to derail this gravy train by actually meeting demand. Just the fact that it's hard to get has created an amazing amount of press.


 That's only true if the audience wants it only for that reason. So far you have no proof of that. It's this illogic that sperates the fanboys from the real gamers.


I have no proof but here's my reasoning:  everytime I hear people talking about the Wii (either to me or I happen to hear other peoples' conversations) they almost always (like 99% of the time) talk about how hard it is to get.  They rarely if ever talk about the games on it, I mean besides Wii Play I don't think I've actually ever heard anyone (in person not in forums) talk about another game.

Also most of the media attention the system now gets isn't from it's games, it's from how hard the systems are to get.  If they were suddenly available everywhere I have a feeling that kind of free publicity would disappear as well as the conversations from people talking about the same thing.  Without that the system's profile would become much lower.

I do think though even if Wii demand is met (which I honestly don't think Nintendo will purposely do because of the reasons I stated above) it would still get attention next year solely because of Wii Fit.


By mid November of this year the Wii will have more million selling games that have sold more copies then the XBox 360 or PS3 sold in their first years or in the same timeframe.

There isn't a lot of talk about Wii games because when someone mentions how great The Legend of Zelda or Super Paper Mario we get to hear "OMG, another Zelda/Mario game can't Nintendo think of new ideas?" if someone mentions Wii Sports or Wario Ware we get to hear "OMG, another Casual/Kiddie crap game can't Nintendo create games for Core gamers?"

Believe it or not PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY BUYING THE WII BECAUSE THEY WANT TO OWN THE WII!

Seriously, besides gold/diamonds can you name one item that gets bought simply because it is rare? Not in small scales either, 1 Million being bought simply because it is hard to find?



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Legend11 on 01 August 2007
HappySqurriel said:
Legend11 said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
Legend11 said:

One million the first week then it starts to plummit fast as the lemming effect of getting something hard to get wears off. There's no way Nintendo is actually going to derail this gravy train by actually meeting demand. Just the fact that it's hard to get has created an amazing amount of press.


 That's only true if the audience wants it only for that reason. So far you have no proof of that. It's this illogic that sperates the fanboys from the real gamers.


I have no proof but here's my reasoning:  everytime I hear people talking about the Wii (either to me or I happen to hear other peoples' conversations) they almost always (like 99% of the time) talk about how hard it is to get.  They rarely if ever talk about the games on it, I mean besides Wii Play I don't think I've actually ever heard anyone (in person not in forums) talk about another game.

Also most of the media attention the system now gets isn't from it's games, it's from how hard the systems are to get.  If they were suddenly available everywhere I have a feeling that kind of free publicity would disappear as well as the conversations from people talking about the same thing.  Without that the system's profile would become much lower.

I do think though even if Wii demand is met (which I honestly don't think Nintendo will purposely do because of the reasons I stated above) it would still get attention next year solely because of Wii Fit.


By mid November of this year the Wii will have more million selling games that have sold more copies then the XBox 360 or PS3 sold in their first years or in the same timeframe.

There isn't a lot of talk about Wii games because when someone mentions how great The Legend of Zelda or Super Paper Mario we get to hear "OMG, another Zelda/Mario game can't Nintendo think of new ideas?" if someone mentions Wii Sports or Wario Ware we get to hear "OMG, another Casual/Kiddie crap game can't Nintendo create games for Core gamers?"

Believe it or not PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY BUYING THE WII BECAUSE THEY WANT TO OWN THE WII!

Seriously, besides gold/diamonds can you name one item that gets bought simply because it is rare? Not in small scales either, 1 Million being bought simply because it is hard to find?


Cabbage Patch Kids at the height of their popularity, also Tickle Me Elmo, in 1996 people literally got into fist fights in stores and at least one Wal-Mart clerk  "suffered a pulled hamstring, injuries to his back, jaw and knee, a broken rib and a concussion" when a crowd of 300 stampeded into the store looking for them and he was holding one of the last remaining ones.  They also went for as much as US$1500 (even though it was a US$28.99 toy).

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tickle_Me_Elmo  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_Patch_Kids



HappySqurriel on 01 August 2007
Legend11 said:

Cabbage Patch Kids at the height of their popularity, also Tickle Me Elmo, in 1996 people literally got into fist fights in stores and at least one Wal-Mart clerk  "suffered a pulled hamstring, injuries to his back, jaw and knee, a broken rib and a concussion" when a crowd of 300 stampeded into the store looking for them and he was holding one of the last remaining ones.  They also went for as much as US$1500 (even though it was a US$28.99 toy).

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tickle_Me_Elmo  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_Patch_Kids


I was old enough to remember both of those things and yet I can't remember a single case of people BUYING THEM BECAUSE THEY WERE HARD TO FIND ...

Tickle Me Elmo was so amazingly popular because every parent, aunt, uncle, grandmother and grandfather saw the advertizements and news stories about this toy and said "Little Jimmy/Sally would love that" and rushed out to buy one thinking of having the best christmas gift of the year ...

The Cabbage Patch Kids (like webkins of today) were largely driven by children wanting them. Parents couldn't refuse children who asked for these seemingly inexpensive toys and rushed out to buy them ...

Parents were not BUYING THEM BECAUSE THEY WERE HARD TO FIND ...

Even the Furbies were bought because kids though a trainable toy was a cool idea ...
Children loved the pound puppies and Wrinkles dogs ...
Tamagotchi were bought like crazy because kids wanted virtual pets ...

No one was BUYING THEM BECAUSE THEY WERE HARD TO FIND ...

 

 

 

If there wasn't demand for the Wii as a gaming system why are people why is nearly 1 Million pieces of software being sold worldwide for the Wii every Week? Is The software hard to find?



TheBigFatJ on 01 August 2007
Legend11 said:

One million the first week then it starts to plummit fast as the lemming effect of getting something hard to get wears off. There's no way Nintendo is actually going to derail this gravy train by actually meeting demand. Just the fact that it's hard to get has created an amazing amount of press.


I haven't seen that press, but from what I've seen most people who want the Wii want it becuase they saw it at someone's house and played it.  Most of them are surprised to discover that it's hard to find, and many of those people (casual people) give up and forget about it or commit their expendable income elsewhere.

If the Wii didn't have a limit, I'd guess the sales would maintain a rate signficiantly higher than the current rate.



superchunk on 01 August 2007

i'd say given NA only and unlimited as the words of the day, then 2m week one and 750k week 2 then slowly down in trailing off curve of 100k per week to a max of about 40m.



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Erik Aston on 01 August 2007

I guess it’s just impossible for some people to believe that people prefer Wii to other consoles. Every argument is based on the idea that secretly, deep down inside, everyone actually wants a PS3 or 360. They're only buying Wii because it’s hard to find. Wii will be a gateway drug to other consoles. The Wii fad will die and PS3/360 take off as HD adoption increases.

All of these arguments follow circular logic. They rely on the presumption that people could not possibly actually want the Wii, and must want one of the traditional consoles. You have to make that assumption to believe a sudden shift in momentum is even possible, let alone imminent. It’s the kind of BS I expect from the gaming media and analysts, not from actual people.




I don't know how high Wii demand actually is, but history, not to mention common sense, dictates that Wii will sell many more systems next than this year. I expect average non-holiday weekly Japanese sales will be between 90-100K, and average non-holiday monthly American sales will jump up to maybe 450K. Overall, Wii could move 25 million units in fiscal 2008.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.