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So after reading 10000 posts like this one I have a few statemnts I would like to make:

 

1)  No matter how you view it, there are VERY few people who own only a Wii.  It is a novel console that is fun for everyone and every person should have one in addition to a new age console (ps3/360) <- meaning I find it hard to compare Wii numbers to ps3/360

 

2)  Does it really matter who wins (ps3 vs 360)?  Neither console is a flop, both consoles are now getting support from most developers and it has become obvious both consoles are here to stay.  Most dev's can't afford to leave either console out when producing a game these days so virtually every 3rd party will be multiplat in the years to come (only exception are pc heavy titles which will be ported to the 360 and in some cases ps3).

 

3) it snowed last night and I fell on my ass this morning getting the paper.



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Not quite, as long as Sony survives the financial crunch and fights back 2009, the HD console war is not over. The cycle will repeat. Now is just a good time to own a 360 if you are already interested and planned to, that's all.



A brief history of the current console generation:
------------------------------------------------------
Summer 2006: Wii is doomed!
Spring 2007: PS3 is doomed!
Spring 2008: 360 is doomed!
Winter 2008: PS3 is doomed!



Lots of people saying it is just a cycle and 360 and PS3 just takes turns in selling the most is it really true?



Help I cant get my trophy card to work.

Badassbab said:

Dodece: Your ignorance astounds me. Japan accounts for just over 13% of this generations global console market. Further more last weeks numbers clearly show that Japan accounted for all of 5% of global console sales. The market in Japan is not even remotely big, and more to the point it is almost entirely irrelevant.

Japan alone has accounted for over 10 million next gen console sales so far of which less than 1 million is for the 360. There are still a good few more years left in this console war and the JPN will buy many more millions of consoles. That is NOT an irrelevent market otherwise Microsoft would bother trying to bring all those JPN RPG's to the 360.

 

 

What is exactly so difficult for you to comprehend. The market accounted for less then five percent of the global market last week, and thus far this generation Japan represents thirteen percent of the total market. You might not be aware of this, but the Japanese market accounted for almost eighteen percent of the market earlier in the generation. So the Japanese market is actually shrinking. Please do tell me where you place the line of relevance seeing as five percent is highly relevant to you. What is it one percent perhaps. A million units is not very relevant when this generation is going to move well over a hundred million units.

Were we to be overly generous, and were we to say the PS3 would sell 20,000 units a week in Japan from this week foreward, and the 360 to stop selling entirely. Sony would be able to only accumulate an additional two million within a standard generation time frame. For generation end totals that could be a massive percentage of between one percent and two percent. Honestly this probably couldn't happen the 360 will still sell, and the PS3 will probably average out well under twenty thousand units weekly.

For the high definition consoles this market is entirely irrelevant. Half the generation has been spent, and returns are nothing to write home about. Microsoft works on Japan, because that is their weakest market. They want to enjoy better sales there next generation four or five million in sales is always worth having. Having good relations with the developers is good for all their markets. That does not mean the market has the potential to alter the outcome of anything this generation. The numbers that can be generated there can never hope to offset North America or Europe. You can easily win without Japan. You cannot win without being competitive in North America. You cannot lose by a hundred thousand in North America, and be competitive by using the small sales from Japan as a crutch.

The reason nobody talks about Japan is simple. The market in Japan is just not substantial not in regards to sheer volume. Japan moved ten million, but the rest of the world moved sixty six million. Further more Japan is moving less consoles weekly now its as if the rest of the world moved nineteen while Japan moved one. That is how you should look at the numbers.



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If the 360 price cut effect lasts through the holidays, then Sony will be in a tough spot next year. But I wouldent count them out yet.



Bboid said:

So after reading 10000 posts like this one I have a few statemnts I would like to make:

 

1)  No matter how you view it, there are VERY few people who own only a Wii.  It is a novel console that is fun for everyone and every person should have one in addition to a new age console (ps3/360) <- meaning I find it hard to compare Wii numbers to ps3/360

You are VERY VERY wrong there.... even if it wasn't just blindingly obvious in the first place, you can easily work it out using the simple fact that at this point in the generation, if you assume almost all gamers are PS3 and 360 owners (most of those also owning Wii) then the gaming population seems to have shrunk massively from last gen.

I have little doubt that the number of multi-console owners will increase this gen.... perhaps it will even double... but it is a tiny amount in the first place so doubling is not very much.

What I can be sure of is that at a minimum, 50% of current Wii owners will only own the Wii, most of those will be some of last gens GC and PS2 owners.... and I think it more likely it is nearer 70 or 80% of Wii owners are only Wii owners.

 



why is 360 selling, price cut, why WILL ps3 start selling, price cut.



 

 

 

 

Mummelmann said:
So basically; Sony is doomed again? Like last year and the year before. Come 2009 if/when the PS3 outsells the 360 MS will be doomed again, and so the cycle continues...


Well to be fair.  Being doomed is something that should stay consistant.



Kantor said:
Thread #594508450948305980538509840953845084958340 on this topic....

Yes, they can. With... *sigh*

-a price cut
-exclusives.

I don't know how many times I've said that.

 

 what he said. Especially about the fact this is thread #45365467363464523453465665234543 on this topic.

It has the best exclusives, and a price cut will come in 2009 no doubt.