and Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are ALL responsible. Sorry for the hyperbole there, but I had been thinking about the current race, and just how crazy it all is compared to all the previous races, and the thought of "Where can we go from here?" continued to nag at the back of my mind.

Lets face it, the console race as we know it is gone, it's been totally turned upside down on its head and all those lovely little guidelines we used to have just aren't there anymore. No longer is this a race with a defined track, this is more like a scavenger hunt, and the first item we need to find is the list itself.

Up until now, it's always been easy to break groups apart. Nintendo has SNES, Sega had Genesis. Then it was PS, N64, Dreamcast. Last gen it was PS2, Gamecube, Xbox. Along with this, each iteration was an advancement in hardware, media type and perhaps in control layout. Made it simple and easy to follow.

Now lets take a look at this generation.

Nintendo introduces motion controls, only makes basic technological advancements.

Microsoft comes out with Core 360, the Premium 360 and then a year later came out with Elite 360

Sony comes out with 20GB PS3, 60GB PS3, and a few months later comes out with 80GB PS3

So now the question comes: Where do they go from here? Let's assume that Nintendo is coming out on top of the current race, so that we have a starting point to work from when setting the stage for the next race. By now I think most people have started to accept that even if not absolute, it is fairly certain that Nintendo isn't going to fade out.

Microsoft and Sony are facing very similar problems. They've already come out with THREE different consoles each by within about 6 months of the actual race. Think about that for a second. The whole point in having a console over a computer is that when you buy a console, you can count on the games being designed for it specifically over the next 5 years. Microsoft almost looks like they have plans for a 4th SKU, so at this point, what keeps them from continuing to release new SKUs every year or so? If this pattern continues at all, how will Sony or Microsoft be able to define the point at which they stop making SKUs for the current generation and actually design a completely new model for the next generation?  

Both Sony and Microsoft will have pretty much hit the limits of what you can do graphically with their current systems. You can't go any higher that 1080p, and it'll probably stay that way for the next 10 years minimum, and the games themselves are already nearly at the point where the quality of graphics has more limits from the designers than the machine. Almost undeniably, they will need to incorporate motion/pointer sensing. The problem inherent with this is two part. How will they do this and when?

Will they incorporate motion/pointer sensing 5 years from now, or will they jump the gun and do it in just 1 or 2? Will they release a new console for it, or just a new controller? Will they be able to bring enough attention to get support from developers and consumers, or will the hype and popularity of the Wii be too much to compete against? How will they keep non motion sensing games playable? Will the controller be held in a single hand, or two?

On Nintendo's side, they've pretty much stated that they won't bring out another console until it become necessary. If the Wii remains strong, that could be 6 or 7 or 8 years down the road. I know graphics don't MAKE a good game, but they can make a good game BETTER. But when will the time come when Nintendo feels that graphics are cost effective enough to pursue, and how will they convince the consumer that the graphics will be worth it after they've spent the last 5 - 8 years showing that the graphics aren't that important?

Nintendo possibly has the best opportunity of the three to tighten their deathgrip on the gaming industry. In this generation they did little on the graphical spectrum and focused on the controls. 5 or 6 or 8 years down the road, there will undoubtedly be new advancements made in technology. The Bluray vs HDDVD format will likely be decided, and higher quality graphics will become cheaper and easier to take advantage of. Because of this, Nintendo will be able to take on the technology at a low price, and still show huge improvement over their current capabilities.

Nintendo also has the advantage of backwards compatibility. Their current popularity is bringing them in a huge number of titles that support motion sensing already. Sony and Microsoft may bring out their own motion/pointer sensing controls but they won't have a backlog of games that are already compatible with them.

On top of this, Sony and Microsoft will be hard pressed to show noticeable graphical improvement over their previous generation, and since Nintendo already innovated the motion sensing controller, Sony and Microsoft can only be seen as playing catchup in that area. Nintendo on the other hand can ride their previous innovation and then say "Hey, we know you all love our games, but we're coming out with a new console, and just look at how much better are graphics are NOW than they were BEFORE" Because the Wii doesn't focus on graphics, it will become possible for Nintendo to make a VISIBLE leap in graphical quality right from the start.

However, this all becomes a moot point if Nintendo doesn't take advantage of it. If the Wii's popularity becomes too strong, Nintendo could decide to sit on what they've got, rather than risk rocking the boat by coming out with a new console. Alternately, or additionally, they could simply grow arrogant and start pointing to the sales numbers to indicate that graphics aren't important at all, and so they shouldn't even bother pursuing better graphics and heavier hardware.

I'm sure there will be SOME sort of technological breakthrough that will change the way we play or experience games, but as things stand we're definitely reaching the limits of what can be done to IMPROVE games without becoming overly complicated. 

Actually I think that the race has finally been made incredibly interesting.

I think you're over reacting. First off Nintendo could of sat on the GBA for another year or two. I mean it still outsells the PS3 despite you can play GBA games on a DS. But they went forward and made a new handheld that was great change from the handheld market they themselves dominated.

Wii Fit suggests they're not content with just motion controls either, and want to continue to rock the traditonal
gaming scene even further. So in about five years, they'll probably be ready to unviel a new console, and we'll have
likely see a lot of Wii games with improved graphics. Look at Resident Evil 4, that was a late Cube game, and the Wii is
actually more powerful then the Cube. 

Like I said, it was mostly hyperbole. It's more of "the race as we know it" is destroyed.

My point about the multiple SKUs still stands though. How will they be able to gather momentum for the PS4, or the Xbox 720 when they just released their 5th or 7th SKU the year before? Obviously they won't be that stupid, but the question still remains of wen will they put a halt on developing new SKUs for their current gen and get ready for the next?

And when I said that graphics are more limited by what designers can do than the machines, yes, that is good, BUT it is bad when you are trying to show improvement over the previous generation. My issue isn't about the current race, but about where the next one will go.

As far as Nintendo not sitting on it? They sat on CDs for a generation and a half. I'm supporting Nintendo here, but I'm not about to say it isn't a possibility at all. When a company has found a winning strategy, it makes them very unwilling to deviate from that strategy. It's totally understandable, but it's still something to be wary of.

 No they didn't. They adopted a CD system just like everybody else. you probably had one. It was called the Sony Playstation.

And since the new sku's don't actually offer any different cpu/gpu achitecture, I still don't see why that's a problem for the next gen.

Well I do agree on you with the Multiple SKU issue. Espeically since they continue to introduce more after launch, further complicating things. The best way for either company to gather momentum for their next console would be to make it fundamentallly different from the previous so as to both not confuse the public, and to market it as an experience that can't be had with thier previous console. One friend I talked to was confused that's there's actually two XBOX's. (360/Orginal)

I think the Wii shows a great difference from the previous generation because Nintendo decided to market on the controls and not the graphics. Both the 360/PS3 use Graphics has a heavy marketing point, and fail to make the impact the Wii has, or even previous consoles did in the last generation with thier graphical improvements.

Not sure what you meant by Nintendo sitting on CD's. They didn't sit on the previous succes of the SNES or the NES
 (though they could have) and went ahead to make a new console. CD thing was because of thier CD attachment deal
 that went sour with Sony and the debacle the CD-i turned into. Like I said before, Nintendo had a winning stragey with the Gameboy line, and decided to deviate from it. And they seem to have a Winning stragey with motion controls but have made Wii Fit and the Balance board.

I don't understand why not knowing where the next race will go is upsetting. Isn't kind of exciting we don't know
 what's happening and we might see stuff we never thought of before? 

 I'm hoping we are going to see the endof multiple SKUs.  I feel it just causes confusion for the consumer.

 For your other point about Nintendo, they are not the same company they were just a few years ago.  I don't think they are going to rest on their laurels so to speak.

"""The multiple sku's of the box and station do present some problems""""

YES and NO

PS3 sku : minor issue :

HD capacity :
There are all up superior or egual to 20gb
that is sufficient if a game use the HD.

Retrocompability with PS2 game :
Lot of difference between the model, but the software that emulate PS2 seems to work better with the firmware update. Since it is about PS2 game AND NOT PS3 game, it is ok.

Xbox360 : big questions :

Hard drive :
The core doesnt have any hard drive. that is a big problem since some game may not play on it (CoDuty4 ?). OR Microsoft will not be able to use the Xbox360 HardDrive in the games.

HD-DVD : it seems that some develloper need more storage capacity than a DVD. Since the HD-DVD is facultative, Microsoft will not be able to use HD-DVD in game.

The SKU of the Xbox360 are more different than the SKU of the PS3 (mainly only extra storage). I see more problem in the side of Microsoft.

The funny thing is... every since E3 I've been thinking about this to... I think this generation is interesting so much in the fact that every system added something new. Think about it. 360 First HDTV system. Wii first motion controls.. and Playstation 3 first Blue Ray... I think all of these might become industry standards for the next generation. Unless something else comes along. The problem is how much further can you go. Nintendo could upgrade the graphics.... But making people buy new controls for the system may set some people off if it's still motion controlled. I think they could go furthe to push the boundries abit though.... Wii Bike anybody.... Other then that it would lead to bigger harddrives and the others to adapt motion controls to their system... Either that or we see the release of basically the Surrogates... (Tired of playing those video games on T.V.... don't like your current life... then hook yourself up to a computer... and play life.... You can change your name, gender, profession and suffer no bodily harm whatsoever.) *Note the srrogates are robots created to represent you in the real world while your hooked up to a computer... Good story... It's a comic book though.. If interested go to Top Shelfs Website and check it out*

 1. Those with the core are very, very few. I wouldn't be suprised if dev's eventually start using the hard drive as if it were standard. There's already one game that uses it, and COD 4 might as well.

2. the HD-DVD is an add on, for movies, and that's all it will ever be. Microsoft doesn't seem to have any intention of putting that drive in their system.

One of the biggest differences in the xbox sku's are with the hard drive, but for two of those the only difference is the size, and that's not really important unless your downloading a lot of movies.

The sku differences only seems to be a problem in terms of having a system with different prices and possible customer confusion.