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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is Wii demand waning? Stock market says "yes"

I LOL.



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dolemit3 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
dolemit3 said:
The article is taking about the demand, not the sales. The sales are clearly up, but the demand appears to be nowhere near where it was one year ago.

 

Demand is not measurable on its own, you can't go up to everyone in America and ask if they want a Wii

 

You can estimate the demand from the sales on Ebay and such. Last year the price was hovering near 400 bucks and now it's about 250 bucks if not lower. The demand is clearly down, hence the drop of Nintendo on the stock market.

 

 Wrong again, the supply is up, which is why the prices on ebay are down



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

guys, You keep talking about Demand being down, but you forgot the other side of the equation... Supply.

Supply will most likely be 40-50% higher this year. Meaning that it could appear to be 40-50% in less demand. Like Today I was in Gamestop, they had wiis in stock, I asked him, are sales slowing? He hell no, they are flying off the shelves, we are just getting a ton.

Now If I were like bloomberg I would have read the sign on the door that said "Wii In Stock" and kept walking believing that people just werent buying them.

Now I would say it is safe so the total demand could be lower. I expect it to be like the DS of last year and dry up come 2nd week of dec. Remember there are 20 million more Wii in the hands of consumers, meaning the audience is a bit smaller. BUT WiiFit seems to have created new audience.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

dolemit3 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
dolemit3 said:
The article is taking about the demand, not the sales. The sales are clearly up, but the demand appears to be nowhere near where it was one year ago.

 

Demand is not measurable on its own, you can't go up to everyone in America and ask if they want a Wii

 

You can estimate the demand from the sales on Ebay and such. Last year the price was hovering near 400 bucks and now it's about 250 bucks if not lower. The demand is clearly down, hence the drop of Nintendo on the stock market.

That would only be true if stock was consistant from last year.

It's not.

You don't seem to understand how basic supply and demand works.

Neither does the bloomberg analyst apparently.  The stock is down because... well most stocks are down.  People just aren't as willing to invest.



megaman79 said:
A - No

B - Demand in general, dude. As in the whole stockmarket, the whole economy is dragging estimations of purchasing power down for the US. You live there right? Well how many people have lost their jobs.

C - Sony is listed right along side it, you edit that out or its irrelevent. The article is about japanese companies relying on US economic factors to maintain confidence in their stock. Theres no confidence anywhere in what the USA economy is doing and hence has nothing to do with DS or Wii specifically at all.

 

 @BOLD: THIS!

...I just lol'd at the spinned the OP put on the article. It's almost worst then Kotaku spin on that Sega article.

*laughs and points*



The Interweb is about overreaction, this is what makes it great!

...Imagine how boring the interweb would be if everyone thought logically?

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and the yen keeps getting stronger. Yesterday it was 96 yen for 1 dollar, it hasn't been that strong since 1995.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

johnsobas said:
and the yen keeps getting stronger. Yesterday it was 96 yen for 1 dollar, it hasn't been that strong since 1995.

The Yen is stronger to the dollar right now, but it is even stronger against the Pound and Euro.  The Dollar and Yen have both risen against those two.  This is bad for Japanese and US businesses who count on exporting products.  It means they either have to raise prices or take the hit on exchange.  Raising prices isn't really an option for electronics products.  So if they said it took a hit for this reason I would believe it, but demand... c'mon.

 



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

Demand isn't low, supply is up. Simple economics.



ebay?! Did you actually look at ebay because your full of shit.

There's this neat little tool ebay has that will give you an average selling price for a query. If you query 'wii console' which is pretty much guaranteed to give you 98% Wii hardware only results showed an average price of $350.

If you just go to ebay and search 'wii' and then clicky the 'systems' filter link and then sort by 'ending soonest' you will see ~7500 wiis listed and the ones finishing in the next few minutes are all selling around $300. Still ABOVE retail. Granted, I will give you that at this time last year it was over $400, but it was also sold out.

Any item that is available in retail won't sell over retail on ebay for long.

Also, Nintendo shipped 50% more units to stores this holiday vs last holidays. That's probably a couple million units extra.

I throw down a bet right now that by the first week of December they will be sold out in the US again, maybe even the biggest markets like last year (US, CA, UK, FR, etc).

Like everyone else said, ALL stocks are down, most by a lot more than 4%.



NTDOY was down 7.88% today alone. Currently trading at 35.50, down from about 44 just earlier this month, down from about 62 at the end of Q3 following the earnings report.

It's down 43% this quarter. Not 4% as many people here seem to think.

I'm hoping current rate of production is absorbed by demand this season as a NTDOY stockholder, but not betting long on it. Personally, I'm looking for a fair exit price under the current circumstances.

All is not rosy for Nintendo simply because they've finally managed to match production with demand.

Just keep in mind that the other reason the stock is being particularly hammered, like many other Japanese consumer product based stocks, is due to the current rate of exchange. As it's already been mentioned, they can't very well raise prices, which effectively means less profit per unit sold (primarily in the US), lowered earnings estimates and ultimately, lower stock prices.