Mhhh, well as someone who lives in japan I can tell you it is not getting any normal, check this Website

www.kakaku.com

It posts every electronic product in japan, just make a quick search for wii, and you will see that it doesn't appear in anyplace near the top.

By the way, this page it's updated everymoment and has database of shipments to virtually every retailer in Japan.

See you

More like 70-80 million :P

The wii has japan, and soon the world hehehe :P

 Japan Population

 So essentially you think 1 out of 3 Japanese people will have a Wii. That is a little over-optimistic considering that the PS2 topped out at 25-26m (1 in 5)and the GB only had 32.5m (1 in 4, but this includes color/pocket/whateverelse so probably more like 1 in 5).

 Back on the main topic, Its probably not normalizing at all, and probably won't be till after Christmas at the earliest. 

A lot of analysists also predicted the PS3 would sell 15 mil in 2007 and that the Wii would be lucky to hit 20 mil lifetime. I'm not really sure how many analysists actually analyse anything beyond taking a guess because of what happened in the previous generation. You can find an analyst to backup almost any statement you want because it's really nothing more than a guessing game and I've noticed FAR too many analysists with extreme fanboy bias.

Well if Nintendo just can boost shipments when a big game is released than that's clear evidence their holding back supply. Not that I totally blame them. They get good press with these shortages, and are probably continually stockpiling for the holiday season which will be insane for them. And there's really no evidence that the Wii, in any market, is even close to out of the woods on shortages and sellouts.

@DonWii: DS is a handheld. If every third person in Japan would buy a Wii that´d be more than 1 Wii per household + PS3 sales + XBox 360 sales.

That´s impossible as the Wii is a home console and you don´t need two of them in one house.

 And by the way "home penetration" means in 89% of all households. That´d be 40-45 million. 50 million is even imposoble for a handheld...

still, think about it though. DS is easily gonna sell over 30 million, maybe even get close to 40 million. At 40 million that is 1 out of every 3 people.

@johnsobas: DS is a handheld, little Johnny, old grannie, daddy and mommy - everyone can buy one but what do you want with 4 Wii´s in your house? I think 40 million should be the maximum for the DS though...

@Soriku: Yes, much better now