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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS3 forecasts: Setting the record straight, wondering about their Q2 report

They won't make it, good TGS or not.

Despite any anti-PS3 sentiments around here the following is true:

1. TGS is a mostly sony affair, a lot of PS3 stuff WILL get announced.
2. It won't matter for 2007



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I, me, myself dont hate Any of them, Sony, MS or Nintendo. But I honestly kinda dislike Nintendo though Nintendo had great games in the past like Goldeneye. But still, Its nowhere near how I enjoy(ed) the Sony, MS or Sega consoles.

BTW, as I've been telling for the last 2-3 months, The sales by the year end for each console will be just like this

Wii - around 15 mil
360 - around 12 mil
PS3 - 5-7 mil



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

I don't want Sony to die necessaraly but it is kind of annoying to see them hit rock bottom then manage to lift a single pinkie finger up from the bottom (E3) and have all the Sony fanboys hoot and hollar declairing the PS3's rebirth and rise back to the top.



Proud Owner Of: Wii, DS, PSP, Xbox 360 (Brother owns PS3 & PS2)

Things that have changed since the last Generation of Gaming:

- Nintendo has shown us you can have the best selling console of all time with virtually no games for it.

- Graphics suddenly matter to Sony fans but Reverse Compatibility and Dual shock oddly enough don’t.

- Kiddy Crap is trendy with Hardcore gamers now that it’s no longer Nintendo’s “thing” (Viva Piñata, Little Big Planet, Banjo Kazooie 3, LBP)

- Third Party Developers are now essentially the equivalent of Video Game street pimps.

- Gimmicks are no longer fads (Wii-mote)... Well, not all Gimmicks (PS-Eye)

I also find it interesing that Sony has said they will ship less PSP's and PS2's considering that Q1 this year has them selling more PSP's and PS2's comapred to last year.



Well, in regard to the PSP, they're probably about to stop or have stopped manufacturing the old ones to move onto v2. And it's pretty easy to find a PS2 anywhere you go so while they're selling, I think there's plenty supply for them not to worry about manufacturing. Same goes for the PSP, too. Everytime I walk into Best Buy there's a pyramid of around 100 on the shelves. It's part of the reason the PSPs got a small pricebreak not too long ago. The retail stores were putting pressure on Sony because they had been overstuffed with them and despite all the big displays thrown in the consumers face, they weren't moving enough.

 And Maverick, isn't Little Big Planet and LBP one and the same? 



To cash in my CC rewards points for $300 in Circuit City gift cards to purchase a 360 or not: That is the question.

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I dont see why u say it is impossible.

8M consoles in 9 months ? why not ?

same for the shippements...

who knows which production level they can reach ?



Time to Work !

libellule said:
I dont see why u say it is impossible.

8M consoles in 9 months ? why not ?

same for the shippements...

who knows which production level they can reach ?

Because it's not smart from a business standpoint to produce a huge excess of consoles that will not sell. Come the end of the fiscal year, they'll show even larger losses because they have paid for the production of a few million consoles sitting in their warehouses collecting dust.



To cash in my CC rewards points for $300 in Circuit City gift cards to purchase a 360 or not: That is the question.

Unless I'm mistaken, that 11 million figure is never explicitly mentioned on the Q1 report, or at least they don't specifically say it's sold rather than shipped. All they say is "[their] forecast for the [fiscal year] is unchanged from the [previous] forecast". I'd say 11 million is with the previous counting method.

That means they expect 16.5 million shipped (as in warehouses) LTD in March 2008, and say nothing about sold (as in retail). They may still meet it, but only with some 4-5 million units in inventory, and another 1-2 million or so lying around somewhere - they already had 2 million in inventory this March, so that's not unbelievable. Also, that might explain the PS2 and PSP disparity, as they're may not want be willing to build inventory on those.


Reality has a Nintendo bias.
libellule said:
I dont see why u say it is impossible.

8M consoles in 9 months ? why not ?

same for the shippements...

who knows which production level they can reach ?

It doesn't make fiscal sense for Sony. Sony takes a loss on each PS3 they manufacture, over producing only costs them to lose even more money when there is a price reduction. For example the majority of the 60GB PS3's that are now selling for $499 cost Sony over $800 to manufacture. Sony is constantly looking for ways to reduce the PS3's cost. Stocking up on PS3's that they are taking a loss on is to their detriment. It puts them in bad predicament of keeping the MSRP high until they clear out the older inventory or reducing th price and taking even bigger losses on each unit sold. 



KruzeS said:
That means they expect 16.5 million shipped (as in warehouses) LTD in March 2008, and say nothing about sold (as in retail). They may still meet it, but only with some 4-5 million units in inventory, and another 1-2 million or so lying around somewhere - they already had 2 million in inventory this March, so that's not unbelievable. Also, that might explain the PS2 and PSP disparity, as they're may not want be willing to build inventory on those.

Except, as NJ5 pointed out, their manufacturing is down.  If they averaged 370K per month, we wonder whether they slowed their manufacturing or temporarily halted it.

Either way, Sony needs to have a feasible plan and really believe they're going to ship 11 million units in the fiscal year.  If they do not have a feasible plan for doing so and if it would be now impossible for them to manufacture sufficient units or they obviously do not intend to, then they are willfully misleading investors which is a serious problem.

I certainly wonder what they have up their sleeves.  Personally, I hope they sell enough to ship 11 million units.  It looksl impossible, though.  If I were to make estimates, I'd have 6 million units for the top end of their range in fiscal '08.