I think it's worse that even one person, let alone several, think that it'll be in 2009.

Let's be fair. this is from the same group of people who voted Bees the game the highest rated game on VGChartz. So I wouldn't read too much into it.

It will depend on games as it always does. It looks like Gears 2 is going to sell as well or better than the last one. Microsoft doesn't have another game as big as Gears 3 coming up. If they want to make sure their next console is successful, then they will want to launch it with their biggest game. When game companies have a large enough hit, they always try to use it to launch their new consoles. (eg. SNES with Super Mario World, N64 with Mario 64, Wii with Zelda, the 360 with Halo 3 (yes, they didn't launch together, but MS didn't wait to release Halo 3 on the original xbox and then try to release a new console, did they?)

Oftentimes when companies don't follow this pattern, their systems tend to fail. (Sega Saturn without a new Sonic game).

Also,the third installments in trilogies tend to do better than fourth parts in a series (eg. The Return of the Jedi versus Batman Forever. Ie. a reason why Microsoft would not want to wait until Gears 4 to release a new console). By the time fourth installments roll around (unless they offer something truly revolutionary like Mario 64 moving gaming into the third dimension which was genre defining something I don't expect to see again until there are true vr games so next gen games like those of the past few will tend to just be governed by improved graphics prowess of the new consoles -- shooters will still be shooters but with prettier graphics), series tend to lose interest with fans who gain a been there done that feeling over time, developers leaving series behind for other projects, etc ( the next Halo, if there is one, won't get the same type of respect from critics as the first one did which prompted the success that both the original xbox and 360 have enjoyed because it is not being developed by Bungie).

So, wanting to release their best game at the best time for the series when it will be at its strongest potential to move millions of new consoles will prompt Microsoft to have their next system ready for the Gears 3 launch.

So the question becomes how long do you expect Epic to wait before making Gears III, and then the answer to when the first next gen console launches becomes sometime prior to that date.

I guess they could postpone Gears 3 until 2012, but 2010 would seem a probable date.

Micro will be out 2011, technology will force it and they will take advantage.  Sony will follow in 2012, or maybe they will try to beat Micro and try to be first to market.  Nintendo may be a bit longer, but then again, they might go HD early and keeping pushing the Wii, they have done that with handhelds well.  Regardless, over the next 2-3 years, technology will make this gen look dated and someone is going to jump in with a new product.

I thought it was only the start of the next gen when some twat at Sony says it is?

"Sony will follow in 2012, or maybe they will try to beat Micro and try to be first to market."

I don't think they will try to beat Microsoft to the market for two reasons. They have better games coming out over the next few years than the majority of what MS has, and they are going to become the hd console of choice in Japan and Asia especially with FFXIII exclusivity there. They will also probably still beat the 360 in Europe.

I called 2010, which is when I think we'll see a new Xbox.

It's looking like 2007 was the 360's peak year in NA, its strongest region, and 2008 may very well be the 360's peak year worldwide. Microsoft is jealous of Nintendo's success and knows that launching first was its biggest advantage of this generation, so after wringing what it can out of the 360 platform in 2009 and most of 2010, it will launch its next console for the holidays of 2010.

I said 2012. Hopefully, it will offer up some significant technological advances. If it's just a repeat of this gen except (wich surprisingly still impresses me!) with downloadable games or some other perk that doesn't benefit the player, I'm sitting it out. And like others have stated, whoever strikes first will have an advantage.

Interesting.  I think the big questions dealing with this are:  What are Nintendo's plans? and Will Microsoft rush another product to market riddled with issues and severe problems? (nothing has stopped them from doing this in the past, in fact, have they ever NOT rushed a product to market with major issues?)

there's a good chance MS will put out another console 2 years early just to really finally squash, or at least attempt to squash sony.