"When do you think we will see the first next-gen console?" -wtf?-

[triplebph]

It will depend on games as it always does. It looks like Gears 2 is going to sell as well or better than the last one. Microsoft doesn't have another game as big as Gears 3 coming up. If they want to make sure their next console is successful, then they will want to launch it with their biggest game. When game companies have a large enough hit, they always try to use it to launch their new consoles. (eg. SNES with Super Mario World, N64 with Mario 64, Wii with Zelda, the 360 with Halo 3 (yes, they didn't launch together, but MS didn't wait to release Halo 3 on the original xbox and then try to release a new console, did they?)

Oftentimes when companies don't follow this pattern, their systems tend to fail. (Sega Saturn without a new Sonic game).

Also,the third installments in trilogies tend to do better than fourth parts in a series (eg. The Return of the Jedi versus Batman Forever. Ie. a reason why Microsoft would not want to wait until Gears 4 to release a new console). By the time fourth installments roll around (unless they offer something truly revolutionary like Mario 64 moving gaming into the third dimension which was genre defining something I don't expect to see again until there are true vr games so next gen games like those of the past few will tend to just be governed by improved graphics prowess of the new consoles -- shooters will still be shooters but with prettier graphics), series tend to lose interest with fans who gain a been there done that feeling over time, developers leaving series behind for other projects, etc ( the next Halo, if there is one, won't get the same type of respect from critics as the first one did which prompted the success that both the original xbox and 360 have enjoyed because it is not being developed by Bungie).

So, wanting to release their best game at the best time for the series when it will be at its strongest potential to move millions of new consoles will prompt Microsoft to have their next system ready for the Gears 3 launch.

So the question becomes how long do you expect Epic to wait before making Gears III, and then the answer to when the first next gen console launches becomes sometime prior to that date.

I guess they could postpone Gears 3 until 2012, but 2010 would seem a probable date.