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Forums - Sales Discussion - 100 million Wiis sold by the end of 2010

TWRoO on 17 November 2008
kylohk said:
I'll be a bit conservative and say 90 mill., even that's the most optimistic scenario.

Is one of those words a mistake, because that's a bit of a contradiction.

 



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W4n9Le on 17 November 2008

go wii~~



kylohk on 17 November 2008

^^Well, to me "conservative" means not going too far over the line. 100 mill in 3 1/4 years is over the top, IMO.

Hence I think it will 90 mill in the most optimistic case (the DS sold less than that in its first 3 1/4 years).



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Sqrl on 17 November 2008

It never ceases to amaze me how much some members underestimate the holiday sales.

You have to remember that historically a console will see 40% of its sales for the year in Nov & Dec. Its actually fairly rare for a console to see Nov & Dec sales that aren't within 38-42% of their Jan through Oct sales.

Even last year when people explained this folks were still far too pessimistic.  I think perhaps you just have to see it to believe it, so pay attention this year and remember it for next year please =)
To Each Man, Responsibility
haxxiy on 17 November 2008

Yes it will probably reach 100 million.



 

 

 

 

 

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TheSource on 17 November 2008

Wii will hit 100m in 16 quarters from launch, maybe less, by shipments. DS will do it in 18 quarters.

 

 LTD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18
Wii 3.19 5.84 9.27 13.17 20.13 24.45 29.62 34.55 46.5 51.95
360 1.5 3.2 5 6 10.4 10.9 11.6 13.4 17.7 19 20.3 22.5 26.5 28
PS3 1.68 3.61 4.32 5.63 10.53 12.85 14.41 16.84 21.5 22.85
DS 2.84 5.27 6.65 8.83 14.43 16.73 21.27 26.82 35.61 40.29 47.27 53.6 64.79 70.6 77.54 84 96 101.1

 



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Sqrl on 17 November 2008

 

@TheSource,

I hope you don't mind if I clean your tables up a bit.  The information is usually well worth the effort~

LTD Q0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9
Wii 0 3.19 5.84 9.27 13.17 20.13 24.45 29.62 34.55 46.50
X360 0 1.15 3.20 5.00 6.00 10.40 10.90 11.60 13.4 17.70
PS3 0 1.68 3.61 4.32 5.63 10.53 12.85 14.41 16.5 21.50
DS 0 2.84 5.27 6.65 8.83 14.43 16.73 21.27 26.82 35.61

 

LTD Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18
Wii 51.95 - - - - - - - -
X360 19.00 20.30 22.50 26.50 28.00 - - - -
PS3 22.85 - - - - - - - -
DS 40.29 47.27 53.60 64.79 70.60 77.54 84.00 96.00 101.10

 

Shipped Q0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8
Wii 0 3.19 2.65 3.43 3.90 6.96 4.32 5.17 4.93
X360 0 1.50 1.70 1.80 1.00 4.40 0.50 0.70 1.80
PS3 0 1.68 1.93 0.71 1.31 4.90 2.32 1.56 2.43
DS 0 2.84 2.43 1.38 2.18 5.60 2.30 4.54 5.55

 

Shipped Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16
Wii - - - - - - - -
X360 4.30 1.30 1.30 2.20 - - - -
PS3 - - - - - - - -
DS 8.79 4.68 6.98 6.37 11.15 5.81 6.94 6.79

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
mike_intellivision on 17 November 2008

Yesterday I had someone at church whisper to me -- We got a Wii for Christmas!" -- after looking for one for two years.

This is the first time that the Nintendo console (aka Little White Box of Joy) will probably still be available Dec. 1 in the US -- and this is its third holiday season. But it is expected to be gone by the middle of the month. So there is a lot of pent up demand to be met.

It would not surprise me to hit 100M -- certainly by the end of Nintendo's 2010-2011 fiscal year (March 31, 2011).


Mike from Morgantown



      


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kingofwale on 17 November 2008

the prediction is pretty tame after JL's 500 million Wii lifetime prediction.

but it's possible. A lot of factors will be involved and one of the most important one will be whether Nintendo decide to bring out Wii 2.



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
Erik Aston on 17 November 2008

Well, DS is going to get extremely close to 100m this holidays. I'll stand by my prediction that it will reach 100m shipments in the current quarter.

And that would be the comparable timeframe to Wii selling 100m by the end of 2010.

Even if DS only reaches 100m by the end of March, I still think that proves 100m by the prior holiday season is entirely possible.

Wii did take off faster than DS early on, so it could peak earlier, but it shouldn't matter. If it gets close to 80m by the end of 2009, it will reach 100m in 2010.



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