if nintendo can supply enough for everyone who wants one at christmas, i'd say mid to late 2008, if not, it will catch up a lot next christmas and be passing in early 2009.

if Wii demand falls however, it could be late 2009-10.

currently i'm more interested in the 'other' markets (well i do live in the UK).
ignoring all the things that change sales figures, Wii is on track to pass 360 in 'others' as a whole about 16 weeks from now, which will be shortly before the christmas rush, so if Nintendo have enough Wiis it will then soar ahead...if they don't 360 might pass it back (though not by much i'd have thought)

again, with enough supply it should surpass 360 in Italy this year (current numbers show about 18 weeks, but that's mid November so the weekly sales will be very different by then)

In the UK, Scandanavia, other Europe, Australia and 'others' the Wii has little chance of surpassing 360 till mid 2008 at the earliest, mainly due to 360s early popularity in UK, Aus and Scandanavia. but also the other regions general PS brand popularity (or possibly just there are no Wiis)

Hahaha at "never" answers. Still many unbelievers.

The exact time frame will depend on how much Nintendo can deliver this Xmas, but the one thing that is virtually gaurenteed is that Wii will sell much more in 2008 than it did in 2007, because of supply issues. The same is likely true of 360, due to GTA + Halo + price cut, but those games with a $300 price point will not create the better-than-PS2 level sales that Wii is already doing.

Remember that traditionally, XBox/360 has sold around 500K units in November without a Halo game. This year has Halo AND GTA, which may give the console a 1M unit + boost for the Sept-Dec time frame. This should hold the Wii off very well--in the short term. But Wii is doing over 300K/month in just a normal month. There is probably enough demand to do 450K in a normal month, and Nintendo will assuredly get in position to produce that much sometime in 2008. Once the impact of Halo 3 and GTAIV has passed, what is coming up next that will create anywhere NEAR the kind of demand we're going to be seeing for Wii with Mario, Smash, Kart and Fit added to the lineup?

Basically, Nintendo just has to start delivering the units.

Am I the only one that think that "supply issue" may help the Wii as it helped the PS2 ?

==> keep the hype alive ?

Not only are you not the only one, I think some people are beginning to suspect Nintendo of restricting supply on purpose. I think it's possible, but I don't think it's highly likely. If it were true, I would expect Nintendo to increase supply a little more over time to see just how much it can sell without satisfying demand.

I think this will happen around the end of 2008, and it will definitely happen before the end of the generation.

Sometime in 2008. The difference is that the Wii still manages to sell very well during dry periods (ie, no price drop, no new releases, non-holiday period) while the 360 has consistently dropped during this time. Plus, both will sell during the holidays, but the Wii will make a net gain.

Judging by the shipment predictions of the Wii that Nintendo made in it's last financial report, RolStoppable, there's still a slight chance of the Wii passing the 360 by the end of the year. But it's a very, very slight chance.

Anyway, if there's no 360 price drop, I think the the Wii will pass the 360 by the end of Nintendo's fiscal year (end of March). If there is a 360 price drop soon, though, then the Wii will pass the 360 1/2 a year later (by the end of September).

It depends how much Big N can get those moneyprinters out of their factories before end off their fiscal year.

I would say it could happen during february to june timeframe next year.

Look at the ratios for wii vs. gamecube for the various markets. Nintendo has not been concentrating on America yet. They are probably trying to get supply met in Japan and other areas first, so they can pump all their shipments to America for November/December. I don't think Nintendo has been doing much stockpiling (some shifts in shipments depending on game releases though). This November/December expect a huge shift to America, combine with the updated expected total shipments, and I say there is a decent chance it could by the end of year depending on 360 sales. Worse case, July 2008.

July - September 2008. Wii supply will be the issue to watch, and barring any freak incidents between now and then as well.