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Forums - Sales - Does anyone see any way the Wii will NOT win this gen?

rickthestick2 on 30 July 2007
Grey Acumen said:
As much as price, it's reputation. Nintendo has wrangled some Serious PR and has ALWAYS had the reputation of being family friendly and having games that are fun even if not complicated or deeply involved plots, etc. This was practically a curse to them before, now they've turned it into a blessing.

Microsoft is having the trouble of having consoles break down on them, and it is a widespread enough problem that has gotten media attention. People are beginning to not trust the brand as a reliable purchase.

Sony has the complexity issue. Sure, it has all these features, but even the people who like Sony and the PS3 have admitted that the interface simply isn't user friendly. Still, in my eyes, they are becoming a more reliable alternative to 360, and also shows signs of getting games that are visually appealing AND come across as fresh and fun. If the PS3 was priced at $300-$400(with wireless) I'd consider getting one now.


The way I see it, Microsoft is going to come out the loser in the battle with the PS3. Maybe not by much, but PS3 is beginning to overcome its initial bad PR, Bluray is showing itself to not be a total bomb, and it also has been consistently updating its firmware, adding on new features, and has some games that look FUN rather than S0 H4RDC0R3 & CH4113NG1NG!!1! Or games that are only considered great games AFTER you pay additional money for the extra content.


The Wii will come out on top, unless something major happens. I'll list out the threats that I see to Nintendo's continued dominance:

~PS3 and 360 both somehow pricedrop to $250 and Nintendo doesn't immediately pricedrop to $200.
Nintendo can afford it to do it, and so they should make sure to at least keep $50 below whatever the other consoles are hitting. Provided they do that, they'll remain the best deal for the prospective gamer looking to hop into things.
Nintendo could get arrogant again and, by the time that happens, claim that PS3 and 360 are dead anyway and it would be pointless to pricedrop, but by now they should have learned the dangers of such arrogance. My expectation is that they will do the smart thing and drop down to stay ahead of the competition, no matter how small it is.

~All 3rd party titles are crap.
This I see as a slim possibility. Boogie, Dewey's Adventure, Nights, and No More Heroes are all looking really good, and there have already been other 3rd parties that have managed good titles already, like Resident Evil 4(even if it is a port, this port shows the different controls can actually make the game better compared to its previous release)
The one danger that I do see is that 3rd party developers may not be able to define their games as being different from all other games of the same genre. Like all tennis games play the same, or all FPS play the same. 3rd party developers need to work on creating more unique stories and better storytelling methods so that even if the control style feels the same, it'll definitely feel like a different game.

~Nintendo abandons "hardcore"
Don't see this happening. I do see that there will be a LOT of casual stuff, but just like the PS2, there will always be something for that Niche audience as well. The casual markets will take more initial forethought to producing, but won't take as much effort to design, while the hardcore stuff takes little forethought, but more effort to design.
Also, as someone pointed out, E3 seemed to focus all on the Casual stuff. They forget that E3 is the big public display that is possibly the only thing the casual gamer might notice about Nintendo. The hardcore gamers already have websites that they check daily on the games that they are interested in.
It's sorta like a swimming pool. The pool has just been made bigger to make room for a bunch of toddlers that have never swam before. Sure, the casual swimmers may be taking up the whole shallow side of the pool, but we get the deep end to swim in.

~HDTVs become COMPLETELY standardized at 1080p.
This one is really slim. Even if HDTV becomes the norm, people still need to have a large enough TV to notice the difference between standard def and 720p or 1080p. If the standard TOTALLY shifts to HDTV in the next 2 years, then PS3 will get the biggest advantage, but it won't knock Nintendo out, it'll just speed up their competition. Remember, nothing STOPS you from playing with the Wii on an HDTV.

~Nintendo releases an HDWii.
I wouldn't object to this personally, but it would be absolutely essential that this ONLY happens if HDTV becomes THE standard, and that it also supports ALL previous games AND upscales them. There will be significant backlash otherwise.

~[Future battle]HDTV becomes a standard AFTER Nintendo announces their next console.
I don't see how Nintendo can upgrade the Wii unless HDTVs become the standard which will make an HDWii necessary. While PS4 and Xbox 720 might try to incorporate motion controls, the HDWii will be able to retain the advantage through backwards compatibility. It will likely stay as the king during this generation, and with this will already have a full back catalog of motion control designed games to start from, while PS4 and 720 would have to start from scratch or ports.
If this opportunity doesn't become available for Nintendo, they may end up missing out, or the PS4 and 720 may simply get too much of a lead for Nintendo to do more than simply stay competitive.

 This is a very well thought out, intelligent post that i happen to 98% agree with (don't be completely sure about anything). It's like you took the thoughts right out of my head.



Wii Friend Code: 7356 3455 0732 3498 PM me if you add me

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Fuzzmosis on 30 July 2007

Is there a chance? Yes.

The market will change. Sony won't always be insanely high priced, and Microsoft may fix their dependability issues. Just because they've both hit huge stumbling blocks for now doesn't mean they won't pick up speed, and just because the Wii is moving like Donovan Bailey right now (Screw you Michael Johnson) doesn't mean something can derail it.

Is it likely? No. Not likely, but really, who predicted the Xbox failure rates when it came out? Who predicted Sony would give us Ad Campaigns like "All I want for Christmas is a PSP" that would make them look like enormous jackasses? Miyamoto may come out with his baby eating habits that fuel his creative juices.



See Ya George.

"He did not die - He passed Away"

At least following a comedians own jokes makes his death easier.

Nonquihote on 30 July 2007
Grey Acumen said:
As much as price, it's reputation. Nintendo has wrangled some Serious PR and has ALWAYS had the reputation of being family friendly and having games that are fun even if not complicated or deeply involved plots, etc. This was practically a curse to them before, now they've turned it into a blessing.

Microsoft is having the trouble of having consoles break down on them, and it is a widespread enough problem that has gotten media attention. People are beginning to not trust the brand as a reliable purchase.

Sony has the complexity issue. Sure, it has all these features, but even the people who like Sony and the PS3 have admitted that the interface simply isn't user friendly. Still, in my eyes, they are becoming a more reliable alternative to 360, and also shows signs of getting games that are visually appealing AND come across as fresh and fun. If the PS3 was priced at $300-$400(with wireless) I'd consider getting one now.


The way I see it, Microsoft is going to come out the loser in the battle with the PS3. Maybe not by much, but PS3 is beginning to overcome its initial bad PR, Bluray is showing itself to not be a total bomb, and it also has been consistently updating its firmware, adding on new features, and has some games that look FUN rather than S0 H4RDC0R3 & CH4113NG1NG!!1! Or games that are only considered great games AFTER you pay additional money for the extra content.


The Wii will come out on top, unless something major happens. I'll list out the threats that I see to Nintendo's continued dominance:

~PS3 and 360 both somehow pricedrop to $250 and Nintendo doesn't immediately pricedrop to $200.
Nintendo can afford it to do it, and so they should make sure to at least keep $50 below whatever the other consoles are hitting. Provided they do that, they'll remain the best deal for the prospective gamer looking to hop into things.
Nintendo could get arrogant again and, by the time that happens, claim that PS3 and 360 are dead anyway and it would be pointless to pricedrop, but by now they should have learned the dangers of such arrogance. My expectation is that they will do the smart thing and drop down to stay ahead of the competition, no matter how small it is.

~All 3rd party titles are crap.
This I see as a slim possibility. Boogie, Dewey's Adventure, Nights, and No More Heroes are all looking really good, and there have already been other 3rd parties that have managed good titles already, like Resident Evil 4(even if it is a port, this port shows the different controls can actually make the game better compared to its previous release)
The one danger that I do see is that 3rd party developers may not be able to define their games as being different from all other games of the same genre. Like all tennis games play the same, or all FPS play the same. 3rd party developers need to work on creating more unique stories and better storytelling methods so that even if the control style feels the same, it'll definitely feel like a different game.

~Nintendo abandons "hardcore"
Don't see this happening. I do see that there will be a LOT of casual stuff, but just like the PS2, there will always be something for that Niche audience as well. The casual markets will take more initial forethought to producing, but won't take as much effort to design, while the hardcore stuff takes little forethought, but more effort to design.
Also, as someone pointed out, E3 seemed to focus all on the Casual stuff. They forget that E3 is the big public display that is possibly the only thing the casual gamer might notice about Nintendo. The hardcore gamers already have websites that they check daily on the games that they are interested in.
It's sorta like a swimming pool. The pool has just been made bigger to make room for a bunch of toddlers that have never swam before. Sure, the casual swimmers may be taking up the whole shallow side of the pool, but we get the deep end to swim in.

~HDTVs become COMPLETELY standardized at 1080p.
This one is really slim. Even if HDTV becomes the norm, people still need to have a large enough TV to notice the difference between standard def and 720p or 1080p. If the standard TOTALLY shifts to HDTV in the next 2 years, then PS3 will get the biggest advantage, but it won't knock Nintendo out, it'll just speed up their competition. Remember, nothing STOPS you from playing with the Wii on an HDTV.

~Nintendo releases an HDWii.
I wouldn't object to this personally, but it would be absolutely essential that this ONLY happens if HDTV becomes THE standard, and that it also supports ALL previous games AND upscales them. There will be significant backlash otherwise.

~[Future battle]HDTV becomes a standard AFTER Nintendo announces their next console.
I don't see how Nintendo can upgrade the Wii unless HDTVs become the standard which will make an HDWii necessary. While PS4 and Xbox 720 might try to incorporate motion controls, the HDWii will be able to retain the advantage through backwards compatibility. It will likely stay as the king during this generation, and with this will already have a full back catalog of motion control designed games to start from, while PS4 and 720 would have to start from scratch or ports.
If this opportunity doesn't become available for Nintendo, they may end up missing out, or the PS4 and 720 may simply get too much of a lead for Nintendo to do more than simply stay competitive.

 Half of your points are already reality.

 HDTV is already the standard, all new tvs are HD.  All Tv are being made 1080p right now, while there is plenty 720p/1080i stock all new models are 1080p. 

 Nin has already abandoned the hardcore gamers, just about ever gaming website sees it like that.  Most 3rd aprty is crap or party/casual thing.  Wii is still getting not big 3rd aprty franchises.

"Bluray is showing itself to not be a total bomb"

Hard to take you seriously with statements like that.  BR has been nothing but a success beating hddvd in every market, in some places totally dominating with +90% market share.



HappySqurriel on 30 July 2007

Nonquihote said:

Half of your points are already reality.

 HDTV is already the standard, all new tvs are HD.  All Tv are being made 1080p right now, while there is plenty 720p/1080i stock all new models are 1080p. 

 Nin has already abandoned the hardcore gamers, just about ever gaming website sees it like that.  Most 3rd aprty is crap or party/casual thing.  Wii is still getting not big 3rd aprty franchises.

"Bluray is showing itself to not be a total bomb"

Hard to take you seriously with statements like that.  BR has been nothing but a success beating hddvd in every market, in some places totally dominating with +90% market share.

Newly manufactured TVs may be mostly HDTVs but that doesn't make HDTV a standard yet; people who are upgrading to HDTVs today are mostly choosing Flat Panel displays because they're flat panels not necessarily because they want HDTVs. Even then, at the rate of HDTV adoption it will be years before the majority of TVs in home are HDTVs, and even then with the quanitity of gaming systems that are used in dens and basements it will be quite a while before most videogame consoles are hooked up to HDTVs. Even with all of that said, no one has ever demonstrated that owning a HDTV and hooking up your console to a HDTV reduces your likelyhood of buying a Wii.

Nintendo has certainly NOT abandoned the core gamer being that they will have released all of their major franchises within 18 months of their console launching; can the same be said about Sony?

Blu-Ray may be beating HD-DVD but it is still a niche product as compared to DVD and will likely remain only a small portion of the market throughout the generation.

 

 



steven787 on 30 July 2007

I keep saying it and saying it. and no one seems to care.

It's more than graphics or gameplay, casual or hardcore, Halo or Wii Sports.

It's a total package

Easy
Cheap
In the News (mostly positive)
Fun
Online (not great, but free and potential)
Nostalgia (Parents today, are the gamers who played all those NES games)
Stylish
Small (BIG factor in japan)
Relative of the DS.
New
Innovative

Remember, it's not that it is easier than any other system... it that people perceive it as easier. It's not that it is chea... It's not that innov... etc. etc. etc.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

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Timmah! on 30 July 2007
steven787 said:
I keep saying it and saying it. and no one seems to care.

It's more than graphics or gameplay, casual or hardcore, Halo or Wii Sports.

It's a total package

Easy
Cheap
In the News (mostly positive)
Fun
Online (not great, but free and potential)
Nostalgia (Parents today, are the gamers who played all those NES games)
Stylish
Small (BIG factor in japan)
Relative of the DS.
New
Innovative

Remember, it's not that it is easier than any other system... it that people perceive it as easier. It's not that it is chea... It's not that innov... etc. etc. etc.

Well put... that was my point from the beginning. Not one demographic, not one individual strong point selling the wii to dominance, but the huge amount of different factors. The fact that the system appeals to hardcore (metroid, mario, resident evil, etc) and casual (wii sports, mario party, etc) as well as all age demographics with new games and old games. There is also the fact that many games will (I think) be able to utilize the classic or gamecube controller, making them accessable no matter what your control preference is.

It's not any one factor, but the massive amount of positive factors the Wii has going for it that make it very hard for either of the other consoles to beat it.



senatorpjt on 30 July 2007

1) I still wouldn't consider the Wii and the PS3/360 to be in direct competition, any more than the DS competes with the PS3/360. The Wii is offering something totally different, and even if we end up with 150 million Wiis and say, 50 million PS3's out there, I can guarantee that Sony would rather have that than to have 50 million 360's vs 30 million PS3's, since they're directly comparable.

2) As for people not trusting the Microsoft brand as a reliable purchase, it's not like it's ever been an issue before, except for mice (I'll admit, they do make good mice). If reliability were a factor, everyone would be using OS/2. And another thing... It's also unprecedented for Microsoft to ever succeed at anything they can't leverage the Windows (really, MS-DOS) monopoly they inherited from IBM into (although they're trying with XNA). Just look at... Money vs Quicken, Zune vs. iPod, WinCE vs. Symbian, AIM vs. MSN Messenger, the list goes on. Really, the only successful product lines they have are Windows and Office. They have a tradition of seeing someone making money in some market, then deciding they want a piece, and having it blow up in their faces. Also, in all those examples, everyone thought they would just use their (seemingly) infinite wealth to just hammer away at the competition until they ended up successful, and just either languished in miniscule marketshare or just abruptly dropped the whole market. Also, most of those failures were also software, which is their actual experience. They're really going way off in left field in terms of their experience with trying to run a hardware-based game division.



Xyrax on 31 July 2007

Wii I believe has this on lock. But I don't think it will set in with the average gamer until Feb of next year. Once Wii does its thing this holiday season and once again, starts the new year insanely strong on the backs of Wiifit in Japan as well as Galaxy Smash and the assorted 3rd party multi platform titles, it will get REALLY hard to call the Wii a fad that will fade.

After all, if you do still call it a fad come Feb 08, you'll have to face the realization that, well, its about the 1 year anniversary since you started that nonsense, and the Wii would still....be supply constrained. Not even the thickest of heads can shrug that off.