By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Movie execs worried about Blu-Ray

goddog on 14 November 2008
Snarf Barf said:
It's good to note that last years supporters of HDDVD and the 360 add on are now all for digital downloads.

 

ill come out and sayi never supported hd dvd, i always knew it was a delaying tactic by ms to keep blueray down until more could be made of digital downloads.

ive always felt digital downloads, and a solid state like jumpdrvies was needed fro a real formfactor/ quality enhancment



come play minecraft @  mcg.hansrotech.com

minecraft name: hansrotec

XBL name: Goddog

Around the Network
Bboid on 14 November 2008
FishyJoe said:
The way I look at it is that Blu-ray will still be popular, but only for content people really want to keep. DD will be for most movies and TV shows that will be watched once or twice, which is still a very large part of the market. IMO, Blu-ray will never capture the market like DVD but will probably be like audio cassetes, a stopgap between records and CDs.

 

Basically you have it right.  DD will take the rental sector and bluray will have the larger share of the purchase market.  Probably a shared market like this for many many years.



Snarf Barf on 14 November 2008
goddog said:
Snarf Barf said:
It's good to note that last years supporters of HDDVD and the 360 add on are now all for digital downloads.

 

ill come out and sayi never supported hd dvd, i always knew it was a delaying tactic by ms to keep blueray down until more could be made of digital downloads.

ive always felt digital downloads, and a solid state like jumpdrvies was needed fro a real formfactor/ quality enhancment


A multi Billion dollar delay tactic. No it was just a fail. MS does that from time to time.

goddog on 14 November 2008
Bboid said:
goddog said:
Bboid said:
goddog said:
Bboid said:

Yuo say DSL is available almost everywhere?  I just LOL'd so hard that i fell on the floor and ROFL'd.

I am talking about the states only right now sorry if it was thought i ment the world

the best numbers i could find say 42% (2005 numbers) of population of the USA have a highspeed service, though i could not get definition of coverage for highspeed networks (dsl and faster) overall internet usage is at 68.1% (2005 numbers (72% current)) of the population of the USA, this would put majority of users on high speed. though from what i read, there seems to be issues with discovering why it is not higher, as companies hold some of the information as proprietary for business.

 

http://www.internetworldstats.com/am/us.htm one of the more usefull sites 

 

DSL might have a smaller coverage than cable.  The entire verizon network has ceased expansion of DSL due to the FIOS upgrade of their network.  Aside from cable and satellite broadband expansion has almost ceased in the united states.  The only place you will find dsl expansion within the States, are housing developments where a national developer has a contract for dsl installation.  I know in comcast's region they are not expanding service areas for awhile as they are overhauling adelphias network, still.  Expect broadband expansion to continue to slow, as they are having their own preffered medium battle (fiber).  I live in one of the fasted sprawling areas of the country and I can tell you broadband is not as readily available as it seems.

 

Edit:  I just wanted to add, this is a good hearty debate and we are both obviously understanding the constraints of both "format's", just from different "sides."

agree with the debate part, one of the tings i enjoy on these boards in particular.

 

I had thought verizons FIOS update was done, i know AT&T scrapped their update plan. AT&T though si who is pushing dsl, they have to legally due to a few bills passed in congress, i dont remember the deadline, but sometime in the next 5 years, anyone who can use AT&T has to be able to get dsl, or an equivelent if AT&T contracts it out. 

comcast and others, areslowing down, but they have issues with that too, here in tennessee, if they slow down they have to pay fines, due to the way loacl laws are written, knology faces this issue in our area, they have filed for several extentions. 

I expect govement intervention if things start really slowing down, normally im against such things, but comunications networks are of vital importance, and we as a country can not wait around for people to dick around.

the IPV6 rollout is also slowing things down, but is nesisary 

 

 

yeah comcast has an extension here too due to the adelphia buyout from years ago.  A family member worked for comcst for a year and he said you wouldn't believe how bad adelphia's network was maintain/controlled.  In fact one of the major reasons for the broadband use increase in 2005 was adelphia's controleld market being opened up.  In a county nearby, 70% of the county was hardwired by adelphia, however only towns/cities with localized populations of 1000 or more had their flow opened.  Reason behind closed flows was maintenence costs vs profits.  Comcast is opening all these constrained areas up now, but discovering huge issues in the network.

I know a lot of networks are also lobbying for waivers on fines since they are trying to upgrade to fiber.  Locally verizon was successful in the waiver of dsl expnsion, but only if they hardwire the existing dsl network with fiber and all new subdivisions with fiber.  It really is a mess and another fine example of too many medium to choose from.

Didn't AT&T sell part of their planned update areas/contract out to verizon recently?

AT&T might well have, they legally can do that, they just have to make sure the customers who are serviced in their landline phone area have some sort of highspeed network in the time alloted by the bill. congress at the moment seems like it will stand firm on this, with all of the investigations they are holding into cable, and dsl providers, with the network price hikes without rolling out or seriously upgrading network quality



come play minecraft @  mcg.hansrotech.com

minecraft name: hansrotec

XBL name: Goddog

crumas2 on 14 November 2008
Bboid said:
crumas2 said:
Snarf Barf said:
It's good to note that last years supporters of HDDVD and the 360 add on are now all for digital downloads.

 

I have 31 HD-DVD movies for my 360/HD-DVD-player, but I prefer HD discs over download.  I'm waiting for Blu-ray players and disc to fall in price, but I do find HD programming on DISH to be VERY compelling, video-wise.

 

no networks broadcast beyond 1080i right now so the only thing Dish can provide in 1080p is vod, and even that is limited.  They do have an edge but considering the cost for their hd packages It may or may not be worth it to you.

I have DISH HD, the low-end package with about 40 HD channels, plus HD PPV and a few HD VOD channels.  It costs an extra $10 per month.  Agreed regarding the perceived value, but a difference of $52 instead of $42 works for me.

 



Around the Network
goddog on 14 November 2008
Bboid said:
FishyJoe said:
The way I look at it is that Blu-ray will still be popular, but only for content people really want to keep. DD will be for most movies and TV shows that will be watched once or twice, which is still a very large part of the market. IMO, Blu-ray will never capture the market like DVD but will probably be like audio cassetes, a stopgap between records and CDs.

 

Basically you have it right.  DD will take the rental sector and bluray will have the larger share of the purchase market.  Probably a shared market like this for many many years.

 

Id have to say the rent market will be bigger than the own market, but the DD own market will also be bigger than bluerays will be, the itunes store is already kicking ass there with over 18 millon in unit sales last year sales (no solid numbers on this year but expected to be much higher), though thats just a small peas for right now.

(though these movie sales pale in comaprison to music sales which are over 1 billion tracks every 3 months starting march of this year) link has old article  http://metue.com/06-19-2008/apple-itunes-sells-5-billion-songs-videos-strong/



come play minecraft @  mcg.hansrotech.com

minecraft name: hansrotec

XBL name: Goddog

goddog on 14 November 2008

@Bbold, to clarify that i do not hate on blueray though, i do see it making very good money for the companies that make players, and discs for it.



come play minecraft @  mcg.hansrotech.com

minecraft name: hansrotec

XBL name: Goddog

Bboid on 14 November 2008
crumas2 said:
Bboid said:
crumas2 said:
Snarf Barf said:
It's good to note that last years supporters of HDDVD and the 360 add on are now all for digital downloads.

 

I have 31 HD-DVD movies for my 360/HD-DVD-player, but I prefer HD discs over download.  I'm waiting for Blu-ray players and disc to fall in price, but I do find HD programming on DISH to be VERY compelling, video-wise.

 

no networks broadcast beyond 1080i right now so the only thing Dish can provide in 1080p is vod, and even that is limited.  They do have an edge but considering the cost for their hd packages It may or may not be worth it to you.

I have DISH HD, the low-end package with about 40 HD channels, plus HD PPV and a few HD VOD channels.  It costs an extra $10 per month.  Agreed regarding the perceived value, but a difference of $52 instead of $42 works for me.

 

House with cable it costs me nothing to get HD chnnels with the cable card (i have a comcast pvr, if i didn't a 2nd cable card to operate would be $2 or the hd box would be $4 more a month.  Parent's House with satellite HD was: $99 for box and 24.99 a month.  I've watched both alot and they have about equal hd coverage.

 



goddog on 14 November 2008
Snarf Barf said:
goddog said:
Snarf Barf said:
It's good to note that last years supporters of HDDVD and the 360 add on are now all for digital downloads.

 

ill come out and sayi never supported hd dvd, i always knew it was a delaying tactic by ms to keep blueray down until more could be made of digital downloads.

ive always felt digital downloads, and a solid state like jumpdrvies was needed fro a real formfactor/ quality enhancment

 

A multi Billion dollar delay tactic. No it was just a fail. MS does that from time to time.

 

well im sure they thought it would last longer, they did not expect movie studios do what is right for the end user, its not like the industry had a good track record of that. they probably thought they cpuld keep it going through 2010 and get a bit of money back hd-dvd was shockingly quick at the start of the year. 

to further this if MS had though hd-dvd was the future, they almost certainly would ahve lobbied for it to get an international standard so it could be used as a legitamet storage and data media for computer users. blueray had already done that, and pending its finalization, it will be aproved.



come play minecraft @  mcg.hansrotech.com

minecraft name: hansrotec

XBL name: Goddog

theprof00 on 14 November 2008

This is the article:

This year has been extremely important for Sony and its Blu-ray disc, since it was officially crowned the "next-gen DVD format" after the utter defeat of Toshiba's HD DVD. After that fateful moment (which, as you might recall, occurred in early spring), things took the path everyone expected them to, the players and discs getting more and more affordable while every studio adopted them for their current and future releases. But then....September and October came, and with them, one of the worst economic periods the world has ever seen (in other words, recession).


For this reason, as Reuters/Hollywood Reporter informs us, in a recent high-level meeting, some executives from Hollywood have expressed their fears regarding the future of the format, both long-term and short-term. And that's because the price of enjoying the Blu-ray experience goes way beyond that of an actual disc (around 25 dollars). Thus, users have to go out and purchase a Full HD LCD or PDP (if they don't have one already, that is), a dedicated Blu-ray player (or PS3), and a home cinema system.

And even if the manufacturers did slash the price for standalone Blu-ray machines, they're still a bit expensive for most consumers, who're more likely contemplating the idea of whether they'll have a job tomorrow or not rather than thinking about a "high-definition, cinematographic experience."

Given these circumstances, it's only normal for major studios to consider other approaches to content distribution, like digital downloads, for example. Thus, it seems that a big, thick line will be drawn after the Christmas shopping season ends and the studios will then decide whether pushing Blu-ray is a very good idea right now or perhaps the Internet, as a delivery system, is the way to go. Either way, the first months of 2009 will be quite interesting, since they'll pretty much be a "make or break" moment for the whole entertainment industry.




This is the link the the previous article uses as source for their "journalistic freedom"


LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Executives hoping that the weak consumer embrace of high-definition discs will strengthen during the holiday season thanks to clarity on format and hardware issues suddenly face this rude awakening: It's the economy, stupid.

The format war is over, hardware prices are falling and studio marketing efforts finally are taking hold with retailers. Yet the economic downturn has become a chief reason for fearing that holiday sales of Blu-ray Discs will prove more naughty than nice.

Hollywood is counting on Blu-ray -- winner of a bloody format with now-failed HD DVD -- to become the next-generation format of choice for home entertainment, compensating for a DVD cash cow that's starting to run a bit dry. But consumer concern about the worsening economy couldn't have spiked at a more inopportune time: the cusp of the holiday gift-buying season.

"The economy is the biggest challenge, because there are just so many pieces to the Blu-ray puzzle that consumers face," said Lori MacPherson, GM of domestic home-entertainment at Disney. "You need the high-definition television set, you need the player, you need the cables, you need the software . . ."

MacPherson still believes Disney's seasonal slew of new releases and catalog titles in the Blu-ray format will help stir previously resistant consumers to check out the HD format. But industry colleagues participating in a panel discussion Tuesday at the HD3 conference in Century City agreed that the onset of recession won't help.

"The economy is hitting everybody," said Danny Kaye, executive vp research and tech strategy at Fox. "But we still look forward to a great fourth quarter."

If that sounds a bit like whistling past the HD graveyard, it should be noted that there also are distinctly positive bits of news on the home entertainment horizon.

"I know the economy is tough right now, but the manufacturers are really bringing down the price of their HDTV sets," Paramount vp marketing Chris Saito said.

Blu-ray player prices also are heading south, though perhaps not as quickly a recession-minded consumers might like. Although several manufacturers are flirting with the $200 price point long considered key to platform launches, most Blu-ray players still sell for considerably more.

Then there are the discs. Movie releases on Blu-ray sell for upward of $25, whereas most DVDs retail for $15 or less.

"We're all constantly looking at (disc) pricing," Sony vp business development Rich Marty said. "What it amounts to is that we'll wait until after the fourth quarter and see how it goes."

Blu-ray backers can take heart in the relatively modest negative impact of economic downturns on tech rollouts, said analyst Tom Adams of Adams Media Research in Carmel Valley, Calif.

"It may slow adoption down a little bit if there's a recession brewing," Adams said. "But in the adoption of other successful technologies over the next 50 years, it hasn't been more than a speed bump."

In any event, Blu-ray proponents shouldn't panic over the prospect of a longer slog toward broad consumer embrace than some might have hoped for, Fox's Kaye said. "It never happens overnight," he shrugged.

Contrarians have suggested the spread of HDTV sets might not prompt a corresponding rush to Blu-ray if consumers opt instead to boost DVD image resolution via so-called upconverting technology. But those kind of image manipulations fail to match Blu-ray standards and won't pass muster with the majority of consumers, MacPherson said.

"For me, it's the difference between costume jewelry and a diamond," the Disney executive said. "Costume jewelry is nice, but I still want the diamond."

Still, despite panelists bullishness on Blu-ray, execs said season sales will be carefully scrutinized after Jan 1. Depending on how things go with HD discs and other packaged goods sales, it's possible that the industry's go-slow approach on digital downloads could accelerate.

So far, Hollywood has been experimenting with a bifurcated digital strategy, making some titles available for digital downloading and consigning others to "digital copy" editions of DVD releases. Purchasers of such discs can upload a digital copy of a movie from the DVD to a personal computer.

A third annual event spotlighting high-definition discs, HD3 was co-sponsored by The Hollywood Reporter. The daylong conference, held at the Inter-Continental Hotel, attracted more than 120 attendees.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

It's like two sides of a coin!