monster hunter 3 will be huge.

i was gonna say the same thing.

For instance, who the hell cares that Halo 3, GTA 360 and GTA PS3 had huge opening weeks when mario kart has as of now outsold them all?

Well I think it is for bragging rights and ego stroking.

I think Nintendo makes the most ads than everybody else, at least in my region. Unless you mean games and not non-games, but still in this case nintendo marketed SMG, Pokemon, MK, Brawl a lot.

exactly

@OP -extremely unlikely

On the Wii there are not so many young nerds that buy a game on first day. But many mature people who buy I game when they have time. So a lot of Wii games have great legs and sell good over month. Most Ps360 games only sell on the first week.

This!
I dunno if it'll happen. I doubt it BUT I say its the one that has a chance everything else no.

In the end like all posts before me it doesnt matter. Nintendo games have already outsold all those games or will in do time thanks to their legs.=)

@OP
Dunno if you were really interested in this or just wanna try to rub this in Nintendo fans.=P

Those games come bursting out of the gate, but their legs are too small and they trip over themselves quickly. The long-legged Nintendo games are like Paul Bunyan. They're slow, but nothing will ever stop them, and they're cutting down your hardcore forest.

assuming that the Wii Zelda will launch to a userbase of 50m+ i think it has a chance depending on how good it is...

No way.

Year 2-3 is usually the time when titles have their top launches. After that, there are simply too many games to compete with, so launces become smaller.

I believe the situation is this for single-platforms (time in all areas)

1st day - Halo 3

1st week - Halo 3- 3.8M

GTA IV (360) 3.4M

Brawl 2.8M,

MKWii  2.4M

Galaxy - 1.1M

1st Month (4 weeks)

Halo 3 - 5.1M

GTA IV - 5.05M

Brawl  4.9M

MKWii  4.6M

Wii Fit - 3.1M

Galaxy - 2.5M

3 Months

Halo 3 - 6.7M

Brawl at 6.45M

MKWii at 6.4M

GTA IV - 5.9M

Super Mario Galaxy - 5.4M

Wii Fit - 5.3M

6 Months -

Wii Fit  9M

MKWii  8.7M

Halo 3 7.5M

Brawl  7.1M

Super Mario Galaxy - 6.3M

GTA IV (360) - 6.2M

So for the first month, Wii games sell far less, for the next 2 months, about the same as the other blockbusters, but then, the 2 Wii games take off (compared to the others). Brawl, Wii's biggest opener, is really just selling on par with Halo 3. 

For 12 months, I suspect it will look something like this.

Wii Fit - 16M

Mario Kart Wii - 14.5M

Brawl - 8.25M

Halo 3 - 8.25M (this has already reached it, so no speculation).

SMG - 7.3M (already reached, no speculation)

GTA IV - 7.3M

BTW, I just realized this had very little to do with the topic.