Consoles Week 2007 Total Nintendo DS / DS Lite 154.504 4.407.290 18.412.969 Wii 86.786 2.226.771 3.146.414 PSP 32.894 1.186.565 5.718.694 PS2 14.059 464.329 20.619.188 PS3 12.187 531.302 988.860 Xbox 360 2.664 126.559 391.261 Game Boy Advanced / Micro / SP 461 42.298 15.340.377 GC 131 8.830 4.178.298

Link.: http://www.m-create.com/jpn/s_ranking.html

Who Wins.:

Wii - 5 millions

PS3 - 2 millions

Xbox 360 - 600 thousand

Somebody risks a tip?

At the current rate Wii will be at 5M a lot faster than PS3 at 2M or Xbox 360 at 600k. Actually I think it is very doubtful either PS3 or Xbox 360 reach those targets within 2007, while Wii most likely will get to 6M within 2007.

koffieboon said: At the current rate Wii will be at 5M a lot faster than PS3 at 2M or Xbox 360 at 600k. Actually I think it is very doubtful either PS3 or Xbox 360 reach those targets within 2007, while Wii most likely will get to 6M within 2007.

I think PS3 can reach 2 million in Japan this year and the 360 can reach 600k this year. Don't forget the holiday boosts and the release of Lost Odyssey on 360, Samurai Warriors 6 and White Knight Story on PS3... probably some other games too that will give some boosts.

All 3 will reach those numbers, rather easy actually.

The Wii is beyond a lock for 5m. 6m is even likely for the year. IMO, theres a good possibility that just this year, the Wii will outsell GC's entire lifetime.

The X360 is pretty much a lock for 600k by EOY. It has 209k to go, and is easily doing well enough to reach that. At this time last year, the X360 sold another 140k h/w units last year, and the X360 this year is just about 60k ahead of it, and growing. 600k is locked. 650k is likely.

The PS3 can easily get 2m too, but not a whole bunch more (by percentage). At 1m, and averaging 15k a week till early November, it should hit 1.3m or more, and should have a decent holiday. In Nov-Dec, it should sell fairly well. 500k is guarenteed, and could/should get more.

I don't say it is impossible for PS3 and XBox 360 to reach those numbers, but I don't think it is a certainty either, at least not when I take the current sales levels into consideration.

PS3 will be around 1M at the end of July (maybe a little above depending on a bump from HSG) If they keep selling at the current rate (around 13k/week). Lets make it 60k/month for easy of calculation. That would put the PS3 at 1M + 4x60k = around 1.25M at the end of november. That would mean they need to sell 750k during december minus the addition units sold because of software releases. I don't think they'll have that many big games in Japan in 2007, so a huge part of those 750k units will need to be sold in december then. When averaging between 10-15k a week I don't think getting up to 150-200k average in december will definately not going to happen. Actually, looking at it this way I'm pretty sure PS3 will not reach 2M this year unless they manage to increase their normal weekly sales significantly soon, so getting it up to around 25k/week.

XBox 360 is only selling 2.5-3k units per week. That would put them at around 450k at the end of november. Last year they sold around 100k in december, but that included the launch of Blue Dragon. So that would put them still 50k short of 600k. Now this isn't a big amount, and some software releases and possibly a small increase in weekly sales could also be enough to make them reach 600k this year, but I think it is still to soon to call it a certainty.

And also...I think the Xbox 360 sales have slowed down quite a bit considering the fact that...1,440,089 million units have been sold in America alone this year..and considering we are half way through the year....i expect the Xbox 360 to hit 3 million considering Halo 3 is coming out....I love the word considering don't I? O_O

To date this year these are the total console sales in Japan (Jan 6/7 through July 21/22) according to this site for comparison.

360: 135,166
PS3: 555,528
Wii: 2,199,969

I got a chuckle out of the fact that the mods are called Wii fanboys, yet the Wii is the only of the three consoles below MC numbers (obviously MC numbers are not gospel its just a relative thing). Everything looks pretty close all in all.

As for my prediction as per the OP, At the end of the year I would expect..

• 360 around 597k (I was VERY generous with my numbers to get it this close, I have doubts the 360 will make it to 600k in time)
• PS3 around 1.98m (it very well could break 2m this is just where my numbers ended up)
• Wii around 5.35m
  

Of the group the Wii number looks the most doable but it has more to do with the fact that the 360 has been selling 2k-3k per week during the summer months (I estimated it at 4 until the holidays start to be nice) and the PS3 has been selling 8k-14k per week over the summer months for which I let it have 15k a week until the holidays. This is in stark contrast to the wii , which has a much wider range of 60 to 90k per week for which I let it go at 65k a week until the holidays.

The holidays I think are the worst news for the 360 (in japan) since last year it only had a single week above 50k and then it cooled off to 18k for 3 weeks and was just very poor other than that. The PS3 was a bit different doing 30k or so the first week then 50k the second week and then settling at about 75k for the rest of Dec before trailing back to normal Jan numbers. The Wii numbers were all over the place making it hard to predict anything, the Dec week by week last year was 368k, 99k, 107k, 289k, 109k..

Not so surprisingly all 3 consoles enjoyed decent sales(relatively) the first week of Jan with Wii at 174k, 360 at 20k, and the PS3 at 70k.

I did do some accounting for Nov boosts in sales but those numbers are minor so I won't bore you. Hopefully someone can use some of that info to help them make a prediction.

Japan Xbox 360:

Hardware

Month	Weeks	Expected	Vgchartz	Expected total	Vgchartz Total
June	6 weeks (27/05 - 01/07)	21,000	22,515	405,000	410,811
July	5 weeks (08/07 – 05/08)	18,000	8,842	423,000	420,591
August	4 weeks (12/08 – 02/09)	14,000		437,000
September	4 weeks (09/09 – 30/09)	20,000		457,000
October	4 weeks (07/10 – 28/10)	25,000		482,000
November	5 weeks (04/11 – 02/12)	30,000		512,000
December	5 weeks (09/12 – 06/01)	160,000		672,000

Software

Month	Major Release	Expected	Vgchartz LTD	Comment
June	Trusty Bell	80,000	62,635	I think it will hold with good legs for a couple of weeks.
July	Oblivion	125,000		More pre-orders than TB according to Shinobi.
August	Fatal Inertia	35,000		No, idea ?
September	Musou Orochi Halo HP Halo 3	65,000   60,000 100,000		It’s a guess because it did well on the PS2. Halo did well on the xbox and the 360 is selling beter.
October	PGR 4	50,000		They liked PGR more than Forza in japan on the xbox.
November	Ace Combat 6	75,000		Really, I don’t know it’s a guess.
December	Lost Odyssey	325,000		It’s the game to buy a 360 in japan! It’s an epic rpg with a nice style.

Year to date the PS3 has sold 555,465 units in Japan ...

For the rest of the year the PS3 will likey sell above 750,000 and below 1,250,000 which means that it can probably break 2 Million by the end of 2007 if Sony can motivate enough consumers ...

Year to date the Wii has sold 2,202,770 units in Japan ...

For the rest of the year they will likely sell above 3 Million units and below 4 Million units which means that it will easily break 6 Million units sold but will probably have difficulty breaking 7 Million.

Wii : 5,3 m
PS3 : 1,7 m
X360 : 0,672 m