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Sqrl on 27 July 2007
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To date this year these are the total console sales in Japan (Jan 6/7 through July 21/22) according to this site for comparison.

360: 135,166
PS3: 555,528
Wii: 2,199,969

I got a chuckle out of the fact that the mods are called Wii fanboys, yet the Wii is the only of the three consoles below MC numbers (obviously MC numbers are not gospel its just a relative thing). Everything looks pretty close all in all.

As for my prediction as per the OP, At the end of the year I would expect..

  • 360 around 597k (I was VERY generous with my numbers to get it this close, I have doubts the 360 will make it to 600k in time)
  • PS3 around 1.98m (it very well could break 2m this is just where my numbers ended up)
  • Wii around 5.35m

Of the group the Wii number looks the most doable but it has more to do with the fact that the 360 has been selling 2k-3k per week during the summer months (I estimated it at 4 until the holidays start to be nice) and the PS3 has been selling 8k-14k per week over the summer months for which I let it have 15k a week until the holidays. This is in stark contrast to the wii , which has a much wider range of 60 to 90k per week for which I let it go at 65k a week until the holidays.

The holidays I think are the worst news for the 360 (in japan) since last year it only had a single week above 50k and then it cooled off to 18k for 3 weeks and was just very poor other than that. The PS3 was a bit different doing 30k or so the first week then 50k the second week and then settling at about 75k for the rest of Dec before trailing back to normal Jan numbers. The Wii numbers were all over the place making it hard to predict anything, the Dec week by week last year was 368k, 99k, 107k, 289k, 109k..

Not so surprisingly all 3 consoles enjoyed decent sales(relatively) the first week of Jan with Wii at 174k, 360 at 20k, and the PS3 at 70k.

I did do some accounting for Nov boosts in sales but those numbers are minor so I won't bore you. Hopefully someone can use some of that info to help them make a prediction.

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