Oyvoyvoyv said:
Groucho said:
| astrosmash said:
Yes stockholders hate to be misinformed. So how do you reconcile your theory with Nintendo's announcement to their stockholders that as of March 31st 2009 51million units will have been shipped to retail?
Subtract 2.4 million per month and you will see that they most certainly have the stock to get 43.8 million units to retail by December 31 2008. If the demand exists, they almost certainly will use the same strategy as last year and rush delivery of January stock so it arrives in December; if there is the demand, Nintendo can almost certainly sell 45 million by the end of the year.
The thing you seem to be missing in your calculations is that Nintendo has never sold 2.4 million wiis in a month since they announced production had been upped to that. All those units aren't just lost to the wind, they have been stockpiled so they can flood the market this Christmas.
If the wii is sold out everywhere this Xmas expect the frontpage of VGC to say at least 45 million on Jan 1.
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Nintendo's statement is that their part of the supply chain (the beginning) will have 51 million units by the end of March.
Add another two months to that, and you get those units hitting retail. Check your math, Astro. You'll find I'm correct, and so was Reggie, when he stated that production would be 2.4 mil/month throughout the Holiday season.
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The production will of course stay the same. Produced and shipped isn't the same thing.
Let me get this straight. You believe that the Wii will be at that level 2 months later. You believe we will sell ~ 2.4M monthly. This means that you see it being at 47M ish sold at that time.
As they sell 2.4M monthly, you believe that the sales will be slightly lower than 40M by the end of the year.
So you believe that the Wii will sell a little less than 4.5M in 9 weeks, or slightly below 500K weekly. Roughly what it sold this week. So you see the Wii getting no holiday boost more than it currently has.
Correct?
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I don't believe there is a stockpile -- I believe the supply of Wiis is flowing smoothly, unlike last year. So yes, I don't believe its actually physically possible for Nintendo to sell more than 41M units by the end-of-year (they will have shipped more by then though... approximately 44-45M). I believe the holiday demand will rise enough to sell more, but I don't believe Wiis will be present on the shelves at all times... particularly in December. If the retailers have the room to stock a constant 600K/week supply, then December should see a surge just large enough to cover the 150K/week we're seeing unsold now -- i.e. even if the Wii does not sell 600K units in the last couple weeks (and it didn't), and in coming weeks, the December surge will eat up those unsold units... but no more (because they just won't make it to the shelves). The supply chain will dump 4.8 million more Wiis on the retailers by Jan 1, without question as I see it. The retailers storehouses probably have no more than ~500-600K units currently (Wiis have been selling constantly -- there hasn't been any "down" time to build up surplus). 35.5M + 4.8M + ~0.6M == 40.8M. No more, assuming (I think its a safe assumption) that the Wii will sell out over the Holidays. It the total does beat 41M, it won't be by much. Retailers don't invest in items just to have them take up shelf or warehouse space for months on end -- the Wii isn't the only thing Walmart (etc.) sells over the Holidays, you know.
Go ahead and quote me, etc. I will eat crow and all that if I'm wrong, yada yada. I just don't believe that several million extra Wiis are going to suddenly appear in December -- store shelves are already packed with them constantly, which implies that retailers have plenty in stock right now... however the supply chain isn't "deep" enough (or quick enough) to support a surge of the magnitude that would be required to boost the Wii by another 1-2 million (or more, as some have suggested) by Jan 1.
...and no, the Wii will not continue to sell all manufactured units/week after the Holidays. I never said that, or anything even remotely resembling it. I can imagine that Nintendo will fill the supply chain after the Holidays, while cutting production to save costs.
