America up

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Groucho said:

astrosmash said:

Yes stockholders hate to be misinformed. So how do you reconcile your theory with Nintendo's announcement to their stockholders that as of March 31st 2009 51million units will have been shipped to retail?

 

Subtract 2.4 million per month and you will see that they most certainly have the stock to get 43.8 million units to retail by December 31 2008. If the demand exists, they almost certainly will use the same strategy as last year and rush delivery of January stock so it arrives in December; if there is the demand, Nintendo can almost certainly sell 45 million by the end of the year.

 

The thing you seem to be missing in your calculations is that Nintendo has never sold 2.4 million wiis in a month since they announced production had been upped to that. All those units aren't just lost to the wind, they have been stockpiled so they can flood the market this Christmas.

 

If the wii is sold out everywhere this Xmas expect the frontpage of VGC to say at least 45 million on Jan 1.

 

 

Nintendo's statement is that their part of the supply chain (the beginning) will have 51 million units by the end of March.

Add another two months to that, and you get those units hitting retail.  Check your math, Astro.  You'll find I'm correct, and so was Reggie, when he stated that production would be 2.4 mil/month throughout the Holiday season.

 

The production will of course stay the same. Produced and shipped isn't the same thing.

Let me get this straight. You believe that the Wii will be at that level 2 months later. You believe we will sell ~ 2.4M monthly. This means that you see it being at 47M ish sold at that time.

As they sell 2.4M monthly, you believe that the sales will be slightly lower than 40M by the end of the year.

So you believe that the Wii will sell a little less than 4.5M in 9 weeks, or slightly below 500K weekly. Roughly what it sold this week. So you see the Wii getting no holiday boost more than it currently has.

Correct?