This seems to be a 3 part feature, discussing the first half of 2007 for each console. PS3 is up first.
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3161509
State of the NPD: PlayStation 3, Doomed to 3rd Place?
Continued sales decline show price, software still enormous hurdle.
By Patrick Klepek, 07/25/2007
One half of 2007 is behind us. In reality, we're nearly finished with July on the calendar, but in the world of numbers and sales tallies, the NPD Group has just declared June finished. So far, the story remains roughly the same: PlayStation 3 continues to struggle amidst a software drought, the ship that is Xbox 360 plods forward despite a sagging growth trend, and Wii continues to sail above the competition with no end in sight.
PlayStation 3, Doomed to 3rd Place?
Though the hardware saw an happy launch in late November, sales have dropped hard every month. Most telling? Hardware numbers in June are down a whopping 60% from January. Firmware releases and PlayStation Network updates have offered improved features, but can't fix the two most brutal criticisms -- price and software -- and unless a miracle occurs, the former will keep them from playing much catch up this Fall.
Is Sony doomed? No. But, will they move out of third place this Fall? Not at all likely.
Holiday momentum, brand loyalty and Resistance: Fall of Man, a strong new IP from Insomniac Games, carried PS3 out of the starting gate, but they immediately found themselves third place and the company's remained there ever since. PS3 has seen a sharp, consistent decline that has continued throughout 2007:
PlayStation 3 Month-to-Month Sales
January*: 244,000, or 48,800 per week February: 127,000, or 31,750 per week March*: 130,000, or 26,000 per week April: 82,000, or 20,500 per week May: 82,000, or 20,500 per week June*: 98,500, or 19,700 per week [Why the *? The January, March and June numbers reflect a five-week total. At the end of each quarter, the numbers reflect a five-week tally (i.e. March 4 through April 7 for the March 2007 totals). Additionally, this January was also five weeks, as a result of the calendar leap year, says the NPD Group.]
On its face, PS3 experienced a stronger-than-usual June -- but that's not true. As it turns out, June was the worst month yet for PS3. Analyzing its week-to-week performance, given the per week average sales listed above, the machine would have only sold roughly 78,800, in a four-week period.
Even if sales were to double in July and continued going forward, they would have no chance of catching up with Nintendo, let alone Microsoft. In the event of a gaming apocalypse where Xbox 360s were to stop being manufactured until January 2008 -- keeping in mind U.S. total Xbox 360 sales to date are at 5.79M, whereas PS3 sits at 1.49M -- they would need to sell 4.3M units by December. At the averaged rate culled from the last six months of PS3 hardware sales -- 127,250 units -- it would take them a total of 33 months in order to catch up with Xbox 360.
33 months (also known as 2 years, 9 months) to sync with Microsoft.
Each month, Sony has tossed out a variety of excuses for the platform's declining performance. Starting with April, lack of software became the talking point, so what was released?
April:Enchanted Arms [Ubisoft, Xbox 360 port] F.E.A.R. [Sierra, late multi-platform release port] May:
Spider-Man 3 [Activision, multi-platform release] MLB 07: The Show [SCEA, PS3 exclusive] Surf's Up [multi-platform release] June:
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer [Take-Two, multi-platform release] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix [EA, multi-platform release, exclusive SIXAXIS support] Transformers: The Game [Activision, multi-platform release] The Bigs [2K Sports, multi-platfom release] The Darkness [multi-platform release] Rainbow Six: Vegas [multi-platform release]
Outside of MLB 07: The Show, there's not a single PS3 exclusive in that pile. Sony painted MLB 07: The Show as a possible spring kick start on PS3, but when the June 2007 numbers were released, only the PS2 version broke the top 20, sliding into 18th place. The last time PS3 had a top ten selling game was in March, with MotorStorm in 5th place at 199,000 copies sold. Comparatively, Xbox 360 has seen 14 different games shown up on the top ten since January, while Wii has seen seven.
Right now, PS3's problem stems from a combination of software and price. Sony took a step to rectifying this before E3 with the reintroduction of the $499 SKU, which is actually the $599 60GB SKU with $100 chopped off. A replacement $599 SKU with 80GB and a copy of MotorStorm arrives on retail shelves in August, though most anticipate this move is simply a play to push the 60GB SKU out of the market and make 80GB SKU the only SKU on shelves this Fall. According to Sony, PS3 sales have already gained traction after the price drop. From a press release distributed Monday: "Based on preliminary internal data, PS3 sales have increased by more than 135% at the company's top five retailers since the new $499 price was announced two weeks ago on July 9th."
You don't need "internal data" to know PS3s have spiked following the pricing shakeup. The strong E3 showing and additional value at $499 means more gamers have become confident in picking up a piece of hardware -- the several 1UP Network editors (this one included) who picked up PS3s in the past two weeks is a testament to that. The question's whether the price drop is enough. Just after $499 reintroduction, Capcom and Konami chimed in with the same message: $100 isn't enough.
In August, that may be the same message gamers send to Sony, too. $100 might have swayed those on the fence during the slow summer months, but Sony's relying on a bunch of unproven new IPs, the exception being Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction, to jump start PS3. Microsoft? Halo 3. Nintendo? Super Mario Galaxy. Sony's once great backup plan, Grand Theft Auto, will be a multi-platform release -- with exclusive content on Xbox 360. Times have changed.
The 1UP Network collectively agreed the company has a promising lineup at E3, but reaching that lineup is going to take time. "I think it is all about building momentum. We are developing an outstanding catalog of games across multiple genres for PS3 that is about to explode this fall, starting with the release of Lair and Warhawk in August, followed shortly after by Ratchet & Clank, Uncharted, SingStar, Eye of Judgment, Folklore, Heavenly Sword, NBA 08 and many more," said Sony Computer Entertainment America Senior Director of Corporate Comm. Dave Karraker.
It's an understatement to say PS3 has experienced a rough first year at market. They've prepared their second holiday season with a strong lineup of games and a SKU reshuffling resulting in initial promising numbers, but as some of Sony's strongest publishers brought up, is $100 really enough? Would $399, a price in line with the Xbox 360 Premium SKU, have ensured a fast track to matching Microsoft? No matter how great Naughty Dog's new IP is, it's still a new IP -- can fancy TV advertisements and worth of mouth stack help it succeed on a platform that needs a blockbuster hit with the mainstream?
I'll post 360 and Wii when they come out.
