I doubt the PS3 will get the 40-50% of the current gen market...but you never know. We are 3 years into this current gen with the PS3 only 2 years in. And considering that Sony view the PS3 as another 10 year console, we could see sales continue to rise over the next 3-4 years before it slows down.

It's more and more likely that the 360 will have a successor in the next 2-3 years and Nintendo will bring out another console in 2-3 years as well, so maybe this is why it's looking this way.

@davygee: If we go by your analysis then we can expect things to be wrong instantly. Looking at your sig predictions I feel really bad. Besides, why do you believe that the least successful console so far will be the one to remain longer in the market? You have been brainwashed by illogic fanboys it seems.

I don't know why would Nintendo stop supporting the Wii, which is the fastest selling console of all times, before the worst selling console this gen stops selling.

Those saying "time will tell" or "Anything is possible" are just delusional or in denial.

40 to 50% of the HD console market this generation seems reasonable.

You know and I know that Sony does not control the lifespan of their console. Consoles have their highest sales in their third year. A console's lifespan is decided by the hardware sales of that console in the first 4 years. Nintendo is always last or equal last to a generation. There is so much wrong with what you said.

Although i do have to praise you for keeping that embarrasing chart in your signature. Most people would have edited or removed it when they were proved immensly wrong. how did you honestly think the Wii would be at 31 million? Didn't llisten to Nintendo's yearly forcast?

40-50 LOL. this analyst have no respect for them self.

i say
wii 60-70
ps3 15-20
360 15-20

Ehm... isn't the bigger prediction that they expect that the PS3 will never break even?? So that it will never make any profit for Sony? Which is bad.. if true..

It's amazing that analysts can still be getting things so wrong this far into the generation. Is it (1) stupidity, (2) stubborness which prevents them from admitting they were wrong in their initial predictions and making a revised prediction based on current evidence or (3) are they just massive fanboys? I can't think of anything besides one of these reasons for anyone thinking PS3 can get to 40-50% market share. Or are they talking of the HD onsole market?

Wii is already near 50% and its selling 2 times more than PS360 also X360 is selling more than PS3 so maybe he ment 4-5%? :)

Didn't they say 70% at the start of this generation or close to it. Looks like they have had a dose of reallity, but yet it really hasn't sunk in because 50% is not anywhere close to happening, haha.

30%...

My numbers are around:
Wii = 170max
PS3= 79max
Xbox360= 80max

In the worst cast scenario Sony could cause some other consumer negative reaction or Microsoft could sling more mud thier way and push down the PS3 max a bit same goes the other way. Either way those numbers are my July 2013 numbers ^_^ if I'm right which it kind of looks like I am then. Granted the PS3 has been slightly or was out pacing the 360 if a price drop on one sku can give 360 the lead on weeklies again then... >.>

It all comes down to saturation points really, how big is the Wii audience and how large is the HD audience.