Will there ever be a handheld console of the same generation as a Nintendo one (i.e. approximately same launch date and lifetime) that will outsell Nintendo's offering worldwide during that period?
I'm going to define 'handheld console' as a computer designed primarily for playing licensed* games and can play games while being carried. Smartphones, laptops, "netbooks", MIDs and similar do not count because their primary purpose is not playing licensed games - people rarely buy them solely for their game library.
*i.e. the console's OS and game releases have to be mostly under the control of the hardware manufacturer.
--
My opinion is that it won't happen while consoles as I have defined still exist. The console will eventually be superseded by some new technology which makes the distinction between 'handheld' and 'fixed' or 'PC' and 'console' irrelevant, such as virtual reality.
Nintendo's success comes from focusing on the games and designing the hardware for the software. The PSP, while it had some success, lost focus on games in favour of multimedia and failed to distinguish between itself and smartphones. It also relied on the Playstation brand's dominance which has gradually reduced. Sony lost control of the OS and software due to piracy by making the device too open, and had too few unique first-party games. Finally, the market it was targeting was saturated by existing smartphones, home consoles and PCs.
I think every future handheld manufacturer will make the same mistakes as Sony did, so Nintendo will always be more successful.
